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The Trump Card...

muttly

muttly

Veteran Expediter
Retired Expediter
ATeam said:
"Poll looks accurate"??????? How do you know? Seriously ... how do you know?

What I see is this. When Harris became the candidate, she instantly closed the polling gap that previously existed between Biden and Trump. That's not one poll showing this, it's numerous polls; each varying a bit in the point spread, each differing a bit in its methodology, each with its history that can be evaluated. But as a group, the polls clearly showed Harris obliterated the lead Trump previously enjoyed.

Up to and shortly after the Democratic convention, the polls, as a group, showed Harris holding a slight lead, but within the margin of error. Currently, that lead has faded a bit and it seems the two major candidates are essentially tied in the polls.

I don't know if that will hold or not. There is no way to know. At this point, and unless something changes big time, there is little any individual poll or even a group of polls can tell us about the November election outcome.

That being the case, the Trump/Harris debate Tuesday night is a very important event. It is likely to be widely viewed and it may sway the opinions of millions of Americans.
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Biden was at rock bottom in the polls. When Harris replaced him, there was nowhere but up in the polls because Dems were happy he wasn’t going to be the nominee.
That rise in the polls for her had partly to to with that and a “response bias “ from poll takers who didn’t previously want to answer the phone but were now more willing.
Also push polls by pollsters to feed a narrative.
 
muttly

muttly

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coalminer said:
And dont forget once the Right wing nut jobs start patrolling the polling places with their AR15s, a good number of people who would vote for Harris will turn around and leave.
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I don’t see that happening. Do you have a link to any news article where you’re are getting that info?
 
C

coalminer

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muttly said:
I don’t see that happening. Do you have a link to any news article where you’re are getting that info?
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I certainly hope that does not happen, but look at what the right is saying, they hate the democrats because they dont believe everyone should have the right to vote. Remember the golden rule in the boardroom, if you dont like how the numbers add up, you change the formula.

And Trump himself said that after this election it will be taken care of, just need to get out and vote for him.
 
Pilgrim

Pilgrim

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coalminer said:
I certainly hope that does not happen, but look at what the right is saying, they hate the democrats because they dont believe everyone should have the right to vote.
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"Everyone" does not have the right to vote. Only *US citizens* who are registered have the right to vote. The "every vote should count" mantra we constantly hear from Democrats is a fallacy.
coalminer said:
And Trump himself said that after this election it will be taken care of, just need to get out and vote for him.
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What will be "taken care of" - requiring photo ID and proof of citizenship to vote? Let's hope so.

Also, "right wing nut jobs with AR15s..." - seriously? The only thing close to this we've seen recently was the Black Panthers patrolling voting sites in Philadelphia.
 
Pilgrim

Pilgrim

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Another look at the RCP Betting Avg shows the odds continue to widen in favor of Trump. The "Joy and Hope" message isn't cutting it with the voters; Harris needs to start talking substantively about key issues to voters but instead she's visiting spice shops and doing an abortion tour in a bus, connecting with liberal voters that will vote for her anyway. She's flipped on every liberal position she's always held on key issues like banning fracking, the border wall and Medicare for all, but claims she hasn't changed her core values. She can't have it both ways. Americans are starting to realize she's a fake. This is starting to look like another Dukakis campaign.

 
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C

coalminer

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Pilgrim said:
"Everyone" does not have the right to vote. Only *US citizens* who are registered have the right to vote. The "every vote should count" mantra we constantly hear from Democrats is a fallacy.

What will be "taken care of" - requiring photo ID and proof of citizenship to vote? Let's hope so.

Also, "right wing nut jobs with AR15s..." - seriously? The only thing close to this we've seen recently was the Black Panthers patrolling voting sites in Philadelphia.
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Ever heard the term boogaloo, look it up, scaring people at the polls would be the biggest bang for their buck as the saying goes.
 
muttly

muttly

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ATeam said:
Not so fast.

www.detroitnews.com

Robert Kennedy, Cornel West stay on Michigan ballot after state Supreme Court rulings

Kennedy, who had been nominated for president by the Natural Law Party in Michigan, wasn't entitled to the "extraordinary relief," the court said.
www.detroitnews.com
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Predictable: Dem majority. Dems twisted themselves into a pretzel playing both sides of this. First, Dems work with a group to try to keep him off the ballot and then Benson appeals a unanimous lower court decision (after the deadline) to keep him on the ballot.
IMG_1059.jpeg
 
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ATeam

ATeam

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Tonight's Trump/Harris Debate

I'm not watching the debate. Preferring to use my time for other things, I like to read about events like this in the news the next day or later ... after the dust has settled, and after the pundits have had a chance to share their analyses. Before bed, I did glimpse at Twitter (X) to get an early peek.

Based on what's being said about Trump and Harris, it seems to me that the best part of tonight's debate is that millions of MAGA people are watching it.

They're seeing with their own eyes Trump collapse under the blows Harris is landing. At a rally, Trump reigns supreme. At this debate, he is melting down in front of a skilled opponent, and in front of his MAGA followers.

Because they get their news from Trump himself or the MAGA echo chambers, many MAGA people have never seen anything like this. Now they have.

It will be interesting to see how they respond to the whipping Harris is giving Trump. One commentator called it elder abuse. Harris is carving Trump apart, and Trump is not responding well; certainly not in a way that inspires confidence in him as a leader. Trump is taller and louder than Harris but she is dominating tonight.
 
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ATeam

ATeam

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12 of 17 FOX News Viewers Say Trump Lost the Debate

"Voters taking part in a Fox News Digital panel reacting to the debate said that Vice President Kamala Harris came away from the event with a victory.

"Asked who they thought won the debate, 12 voters on the panel raised their hand for Harris while just five indicated they believed former President Donald Trump won.

"Asked why they thought Harris won, many voters expressed that Trump did not know how to attack his new opponent in the race." (Source)
 
ATeam

ATeam

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CNN Instant Poll; Harris Won the Debate

"In the poll, 63 percent of those who watched the debate — a group that is not representative of the electorate as a whole — said Harris won. Just 37 percent said Donald Trump won the debate.

"Harris’ apparent victory is notable because the same group of voters went into the debate with mixed expectations. Asked before the debate whom they thought would win, 50 percent predicted Harris, and 50 percent chose Trump." (Source)
 
ATeam

ATeam

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Trump Investors Shaken. DJT Shares Plunge Morning After Debate

"The share price of Trump Media plunged more than 17% on Wednesday morning, a day after its majority shareholder Donald Trump delivered a widely panned presidential debate performance against Vice President Kamala Harris." (Source)
 
ATeam

ATeam

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Nearly 60 Million Watched the Trump/Harris Debate

"Almost 60 million people watched Tuesday night’s debate between Vice President Harris and former President Trump, according to initial Nielsen research.

"That total audience figure is 10 million more than watched this cycle’s first presidential debate between Trump and President Biden in May, but well short of the record 84 million that watched a 2016 clash between Trump and then-Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton." (Source)

These 60 million people presumably include a few million or more undecided voters. Just because someone tells a focus group or pollster Trump lost the debate, it does not follow that they will vote for Harris. But, as a practical matter, it's reasonable to assume most who say Harris won the debate will vote for her.

Based on Trump's terrible debate performance (worse than Biden, some say ... people eating cats? really?), it's safe to assume Trump gained few if any new voters last night.

We'll know soon enough. Election Day is close.
 
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