I'm changing the odds to 70/30 that Trump will fail to comply with the judge's order and find himself i trouble with the Court.
Last night, I saw the news and commentary about Jack Smith turning over a trove of evidence to Trump's lawyers, as is required under the discovery rules. The prosecution must share its evidence with the defense.
While that was expected, observers were surprised at the speed at which Smith delivered his evidence to Trump. They were also surprised to learn Smith turned over far more information than was required. And not only that, the prosecutors bookmarked and/or highlighted the key items in that large trove of documents to make it easy for the defense to see the strength of the evidence and the exact strategy Smith intends to use at trial.
It's like Smith drew a royal flush and he's showing his cards so the Trump team knows they're beat.
More evidence will be turned over when Trump's lawyers obtain the security clearances they earlier applied for. Though, that in itself presents an interesting dilemma to the Trump team. If the information has been declassified, why are security clearances needed to view it?
That classification question aside, I'm changing my estimate from 50/50 to 70/30 because with the evidence he now has, Trump can see, for the first time, the names of the witnesses and the transcripts of what those witnesses told the grand jury.
Trump's usual practice is to fiercely attack anyone who speaks out against him. Now that he knows who said what to the grand jury, I don't Trump will be able to contain himself and comply with the judge's order. Every fiber of his being is conditioned by a lifetime of behavior to lash out. One day, when his judgement fails him, or when he is tired or especially frustrated, the probability is high that Trump will slip or intentionally ignore his attorneys. advice to keep quiet.
With what Smith just turned over, Trump is learning exactly how public statements he himself made are being used against him. Will he learn his lesson and stop talking about the case? 100% no. Will he be more careful so as to comply with the judge's order and not talk about the evidence? Probably not.
Related:
"The Justice Department has provided the first batch of evidence in the classified documents case to Donald Trump's legal team, which includes multiple 'interviews' of the former president 'conducted by non-government entities,' which legal experts believe could be used against him.
"The evidence also includes transcripts of grand jury testimony taken in both Washington and Florida, materials collected via subpoenas and search warrants, witness interviews conducted through mid-May and copies of the surveillance footage investigators obtained in the investigation, according to CNN." (Source)
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