It's time to venture out of your Macomb-lucky back yard.
Kamala Harris
- Thread starter ATeam
- Start date
I have. North of Macomb all the way to the tip of the thumb is heavy Trump support.
BTW, Macomb has a history of being a bellwether county in presidential elections, but it even voted for Witmer in 2022.
The PredictIT Indicator
I did not know about this until today. This is interesting.
"[Data analyst] Miller’s election forecast is based not on polls, but on the prices for both candidates posted on the PredictIt betting site. He regards the PredictIt odds as far more reliable than polls, which reflect voter preferences that are four to five days old. And since they typically survey 500-1,500 likely voters, polls reflect a great deal of statistical “noise”—hence the wide variability in the numbers posted by the various modelers.
"PredictIt is the most liquid betting market, averaging around 37,000 wagers a day, according to Miller. And given that each player is subject to a $850 limit, no single bettor or group of high rollers can artificially inflate the odds for one candidate or the other."
What does PredictIt say about Trump and Harris? Per the analyst, the PredictIt data suggests Harris will win by a landslide. (Source)
I did not know about this until today. This is interesting.
"[Data analyst] Miller’s election forecast is based not on polls, but on the prices for both candidates posted on the PredictIt betting site. He regards the PredictIt odds as far more reliable than polls, which reflect voter preferences that are four to five days old. And since they typically survey 500-1,500 likely voters, polls reflect a great deal of statistical “noise”—hence the wide variability in the numbers posted by the various modelers.
"PredictIt is the most liquid betting market, averaging around 37,000 wagers a day, according to Miller. And given that each player is subject to a $850 limit, no single bettor or group of high rollers can artificially inflate the odds for one candidate or the other."
What does PredictIt say about Trump and Harris? Per the analyst, the PredictIt data suggests Harris will win by a landslide. (Source)
A well written and VERY well sourced essay about Kamala Harris, her background, and her positions on the issues. It takes a few minutes to read but it's time well spent.
open.substack.com
Is Kamala Harris Fit To Be President?
A Deep Dive Examination Into Her Political Career
open.substack.com
Go look and read about what she was asked to do when it comes to the border. But I will spoil it for you, she did exactly what she was asked to do.A well written and VERY well sourced essay about Kamala Harris, her background, and her positions on the issues. It takes a few minutes to read but it's time well spent.
Is Kamala Harris Fit To Be President?
A Deep Dive Examination Into Her Political Career
Kamala Harris Shoves the Migrant Border Crisis in Trump's Face
That's the headline in The Daily Beast. And that's exactly what Harris should do.
A while back, Congress developed a bipartisan bill that would have addressed much of the problem. Years of work went into this difficult issue. It was a good bill, both sides said. Trump did not want the bill passed. He wanted the border chaos to continue because he thought that would favor his election chances. He directed his Republican minions in Congress to kill the bill, which they did.
Harris should indeed shove the migrant border crisis in Trump's face. He alone is directly responsible for torpedoing an actual solution to the problem.
Harris says she will sign this bill if she is elected president. More power to her.
www.thedailybeast.com
That's the headline in The Daily Beast. And that's exactly what Harris should do.
A while back, Congress developed a bipartisan bill that would have addressed much of the problem. Years of work went into this difficult issue. It was a good bill, both sides said. Trump did not want the bill passed. He wanted the border chaos to continue because he thought that would favor his election chances. He directed his Republican minions in Congress to kill the bill, which they did.
Harris should indeed shove the migrant border crisis in Trump's face. He alone is directly responsible for torpedoing an actual solution to the problem.
Harris says she will sign this bill if she is elected president. More power to her.
Kamala Harris Shoves the Migrant Border Crisis in Trumpâs Face
The vice president travels to Arizona, where she will blame Trump for killing immigration reform no matter what he says about eating cats and dogs.
Polls Update
With the polls close as they have been, it seems fruitless to rely on them alone as a predictor of election success, especially when the election is more than 30 days away. That said, I do peek at them from time to time. Here's the latest list from 538. According to the overwhelming majority of the polls, the Harris momentum continues to build and her lead in the polls continues to widen. Granted, the lead is not a big lead, but it's bigger than before, and it's one Trump would dearly love to have.
I know muttly is fond of the Rasmussen poll. I don't see it included on the 538 list. I glimpsed at the Rasmussen website but found nothing recent there. Perhaps someone can provide the most recent Rasmussen poll. Whatever it may say, it's one poll among many and the polling trend is clear. Advantage Harris.
With the polls close as they have been, it seems fruitless to rely on them alone as a predictor of election success, especially when the election is more than 30 days away. That said, I do peek at them from time to time. Here's the latest list from 538. According to the overwhelming majority of the polls, the Harris momentum continues to build and her lead in the polls continues to widen. Granted, the lead is not a big lead, but it's bigger than before, and it's one Trump would dearly love to have.
I know muttly is fond of the Rasmussen poll. I don't see it included on the 538 list. I glimpsed at the Rasmussen website but found nothing recent there. Perhaps someone can provide the most recent Rasmussen poll. Whatever it may say, it's one poll among many and the polling trend is clear. Advantage Harris.
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I didn't do it but two weeks ago, I thought about predicting you would say that, and to be fair, I would have said, two weeks in advance Waltz would win the debate ... not even close. It matters little. I know of no running mate debate that made a difference of any sort in any presidential election.
Sarah Palin
Incorrect, That running mate debate had little discernible effect on the election outcome.
From ChatGPT:
In terms of actual votes, it's difficult to say how much Palin's debate performance influenced the final outcome of the election. McCain was already facing an uphill battle due to the economic crisis and Barack Obama’s rising popularity. The debate didn't appear to decisively alter the trajectory of the race, and Obama won comfortably with 365 electoral votes to McCain's 173. However, Palin’s pick did solidify McCain's appeal to certain voter groups, even if it didn't significantly change the broader electoral map.
This is Perfect
"Kamala Harris is making an unusual pilgrimage today — to the birthplace of the GOP"
Harris will highlight the noble and principled party the Republican Party once was, and she'll contrast it to the Republican Party of today. That will be meaningful to a number of present-day Republicans who dislike what the Republican Party has become. I believe this campaign stop and message will shift a number of Republican votes into the Harris camp.
"Kamala Harris is making an unusual pilgrimage today — to the birthplace of the GOP"
Harris will highlight the noble and principled party the Republican Party once was, and she'll contrast it to the Republican Party of today. That will be meaningful to a number of present-day Republicans who dislike what the Republican Party has become. I believe this campaign stop and message will shift a number of Republican votes into the Harris camp.