The DeSantis Decline
According to the
FiveThirtyEight average of all polls, DeSantis's highest poll numbers happened in January, before he entered the race. The high was 40.5%, compared to Trump's 42.4%. Pence was in third place @ 11.6%. As people nationwide came to know DeSantis, his poll numbers steadily declined to their current 14.8%, compared to Trump's 54.3%. Third place today is held by Ramaswamy @ 8.4%.
Much attention is placed on second-place DeSantis as Wednesday's Republican debate approaches. But it matters little if DeSantis helps or hurts his numbers with his debate performance. Trump is so far ahead that he does not even feel the need to debate. And as long as DeSantis keeps taking Trump's side instead of running full-on against him, he has no chance of out-Trumping Trump.
And even if DeSantis joined Christie and Hutchinson in fully criticizing Trump, that won't work well either, as those candidate's numbers show; 2.9%, Christie, 0.8% Hutchinson. Trump owns the nomination. End of story.
DeSantis was riding high when he left Florida (figuratively speaking), to campaign for president. When he returns to state business, it will be as a lame-duck governor (term limited out) and the diminished political figure he has become. Once strongly supportive of DeSantis, Republicans got a good look at him and they did not like what they saw.
DeSantis slid from 40.5% to 14.8%. An item of curiosity today is, how low will he fall before he exits the race? Some state polls already put him in single digits and third place. This is not a question of consequence, just an item of curiosity.
While Florida Democrats no doubt enjoy the DeSantis decline, there is no evidence that the Florida Democratic party and its candidates are showing any kind of resurgence. Having learned nothing, they are as dead on their feet as they have been for years. Their prospects are actually worse. Hundreds of thousands of people are moving to Florida, maybe even millions. The Democrats are screwed because far more Republicans have come than Democrats. Florida will be a Republican stronghold for the foreseeable future.