The main reasons that DeSantis is failing is because Trump is too popular with the base and his position on Ukraine.
Death by DeSantis
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Something to Watch
While the DeSantis campaign struggles to overcome its low ranking in the small-donor category, reckless spending (bloated staff, private jets), declining support in the polls, etc., DeSantis continues to enjoy the support of the hugely funded ($130 million, recently raised) Never Back Down PAC.
But that may be changing. In May, 2023, the PAC hired prominent Republican strategist Jeff Roe as a senior adviser. Recently, Roe has been telling donors who are unhappy with DeSantis's polling numbers that the PAC may shift its support to another candidate or other candidates. (Source).
This super PAC is prohibited by law from directly coordinating with the DeSantis campaign, or any other campaign. As a strategy to keep their golden goose alive and well, shifting off DeSantis makes perfect sense for the PAC and its operatives.
Having raised a huge amount of money to support DeSantis, this now-powerful group is not going to want to go down with a sinking DeSantis ship. They'll want to keep their lucrative jobs and rising influence. A strong incentive exists for them to do that by shifting off DeSantis and onto others who show more promise.
This is good work if you can get it. Attach yourself to a rising star. Raise a ton of money in his name. Abandon him as he fades but keep the money. Move on to the next rising star or hot-button issue.
It is worth noting that VA Gov. Youngkin is a Jeff Roe client.
This shift has not happened yet, and it's too early to know if it will. As the title of this post says, this is something to watch. If such a shift does happen, it's game over for DeSantis.
While the DeSantis campaign struggles to overcome its low ranking in the small-donor category, reckless spending (bloated staff, private jets), declining support in the polls, etc., DeSantis continues to enjoy the support of the hugely funded ($130 million, recently raised) Never Back Down PAC.
But that may be changing. In May, 2023, the PAC hired prominent Republican strategist Jeff Roe as a senior adviser. Recently, Roe has been telling donors who are unhappy with DeSantis's polling numbers that the PAC may shift its support to another candidate or other candidates. (Source).
This super PAC is prohibited by law from directly coordinating with the DeSantis campaign, or any other campaign. As a strategy to keep their golden goose alive and well, shifting off DeSantis makes perfect sense for the PAC and its operatives.
Having raised a huge amount of money to support DeSantis, this now-powerful group is not going to want to go down with a sinking DeSantis ship. They'll want to keep their lucrative jobs and rising influence. A strong incentive exists for them to do that by shifting off DeSantis and onto others who show more promise.
This is good work if you can get it. Attach yourself to a rising star. Raise a ton of money in his name. Abandon him as he fades but keep the money. Move on to the next rising star or hot-button issue.
It is worth noting that VA Gov. Youngkin is a Jeff Roe client.
This shift has not happened yet, and it's too early to know if it will. As the title of this post says, this is something to watch. If such a shift does happen, it's game over for DeSantis.
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DeSantis should have just waited on the sideline like Gavin Newsome is doing instead of tasking himself with taking on Trump and the MAGA base. It was a political suicide mission to try it.
MAGA tried to tell him. Now he can go back and spend the next 3 years being a great governor.
It's a little early to think about that. DeSantis is still in the race and seems to want to stay in the race. He's not thinking much about Florida these days. He's full-on campaigning for president.
If his present trajectory continues, and it's too early to know if it will, he will wash out of the race and return to govern Florida. But things will be quite different for him when he does. He won't be the golden boy of FOX News any more. FOX attention will be on the Republican nominee. And he'll be different in the eyes of Florida legislators too. Before, he was a rising star. Later, he'll be seen as a failed candidate whose weaknesses were illuminated under the national spotlight. And he'll be the one who saddled Florida with a bunch of anti-woke and culture war bills that are already becoming problematic in the state.
I'm not going to speculate about how exactly things will be different for DeSantis if he washes out of the race and returns home humiliated. But different things will be for sure.
Trouble for DeSantis in His Home State of Florida
"If a GOP primary were to be held today, multiple polls show DeSantis would resoundingly lose to former president Donald Trump in the state both men call home.
"A March survey of nearly 1,500 voters living in the state by the University of North Florida found Republicans favored DeSantis over Trump by more than 30 points. DeSantis had the support of 59 percent of those questioned, compared with 28 percent for Trump. But more recent polling has consistently shown him trailing behind the former president.
"The most recent poll by Florida Atlantic University found that of more than 900 Republican voters questioned, 54 percent would vote for Trump if a primary were held immediately, compared with 37 percent for the governor in a one-on-one matchup." (Source)
"If a GOP primary were to be held today, multiple polls show DeSantis would resoundingly lose to former president Donald Trump in the state both men call home.
"A March survey of nearly 1,500 voters living in the state by the University of North Florida found Republicans favored DeSantis over Trump by more than 30 points. DeSantis had the support of 59 percent of those questioned, compared with 28 percent for Trump. But more recent polling has consistently shown him trailing behind the former president.
"The most recent poll by Florida Atlantic University found that of more than 900 Republican voters questioned, 54 percent would vote for Trump if a primary were held immediately, compared with 37 percent for the governor in a one-on-one matchup." (Source)
The same piece you cited said, "'At this point in time, I would be shocked if Trump were not the nominee,' Rollins, 80, said in the article, lamenting that 'unless something serious happens,' Democrat President Joe Biden appears destined to win reelection.
Rollins is a man of great insight, don't you think? If he's right about DeSantis, he's likely to be right about Biden too.
That depends on if Hunter Biden’s co conspirator of FARA will even be the Dem nominee.
This DeSantis/Newsom debate seems to me to be a side show, agreed upon by two political figures whose prospects are circling the bowl. They both want to get back into the headlines and this side show accomplishes that.
danthewolf00
Veteran Expediter
It's a second ring circus.....trump/Biden is the main ring.
For 2024 yes, but you might be looking at the leaders for 2028.
Thinking five years ahead makes good sense when developing business plans where we are in full control of our decisions and actions. Since I'm not a political operative or prospective candidate, it would be a poor use of time and mind space to speculate about political the possibilities that may exist five years from now.
Exactly, I think Desantis jumped the gun a little, and in the end that may have hurt him, but they are both young and if they can be patient, it will be their time someday.
DeSantis has painted himself into an irrevocable corner, positioning himself far right of the general electorate. He stood on the starting line looking good, but when the race actually started, he ran backwards. The further behind he fell, the more strident he grew in his far-right positions, prompting further declines in the polls. Both his policies and personality have came into full view in 2023. Neither are helping him.
In five years, there will be a number of now-unknown rising stars that will interest Republicans and the general public more. It would take a miraculous reinvention for DeSantis to become a credible national candidate again.
danthewolf00
Veteran Expediter
That's part of it, yes.