Another interesting bit of fallout from the Mazar's action to "You're Fired" Trump that's been observed and is being talked about is how it might effect all those outstanding loans that banks hold.
Could result in the loans being called - which means he'd have to seek other financing - which is probably unlikely with any other bank in the US - or surrender assets.
Could also effect the interest rates he's paying.
Agreed. I think Mazars firing Trump is a big, big, deal.
I think this will be more catastrophic to the Trump Organization and Trump himself than anything that has developed so far out of the Muller report, two impeachments, loss of social media access, unfair media coverage, the stream of tell-all books, previous bankruptcies, numerous lawsuits, previous investigations, and all investigations currently underway.
Mazars firing Trump is:
- Not a court ruling that can be appealed
- Not a regulatory action
- Not a subpoena
- Not a lawsuit
- Not a DA or other investigator's action
- Not an indictment by a grand jury
- Not fake news
- Not a tell-all book
- Not a case of defamation
- Not psychologists questioning Trump's mental state
- Not an unsourced story
- Not a charge of fraud Trump can fight
- Not a fact that can be hidden or obscured
- Not politically motivated
- Not an action by others Trump can hide behind
- Not something about which Trump can say "I have top accountants validating my word." and
- Not something that can be undone or delayed by Trump taking Mazars to court.
Mazars is an accounting firm that, on its own volition and within it's rights, simply dumped Trump.
Trump has no recourse against this, and the action leaves Trump without an accounting firm, at least for the moment, and probably longer.
A big business losing its accounting firm is like a fleet of trucks losing its fuel cards. They can continue to run for a little while, but if another accounting firm does not quickly step in, it's difficult to see how they can continue to operate at the scale they once did.
This is a big deal because Mazars said Trump's statements of financial position of the last 10 years are not reliable. Before, Mazar's was the accounting firm that certified the reliability of the Trump financial statements they helped prepare. That gave Trump's lenders and business partners the ability to believe, or at least pretend, the statements were accurate. But now, because of the Mazars declaration, Trump's financial statements are worthless.
If financial statements once said to be reliable become unreliable -- and the Trump statements are no longer reliable -- his lenders and business partners will be forced to react. This is because, to stay on the right side of the law and in the good graces of their regulators and/or investors, they must continue their due diligence in managing their property and credit portfolios.
To maintain their due diligence and appearance of good faith, the first response, and easiest response, for Trump's lenders and business partners will likely be to issue letters that read something like this:
"Dear Trump Organization,
"It has come to our attention that the financial statement you submitted on (date) in connection with (name of loan or business deal) is unreliable. This places you in default of our agreement. To cure the default, you are required to provide forthwith a revised financial statement that is properly audited and certified by an accounting firm we deem reliable. Failure to cure said default will result in us effecting the remedies provided by our agreement."
Trump's problem is it will be impossible to comply with such a demand because no reliable accounting firm will be willing to step into the space vacated by Mazars. The Trump Organization is under a
15-count indictment for alleged tax crimes. That's not something that makes it attractive for an accounting firm to take Trump on as a client. And even if one did, it would take months if not years to properly audit the Trump Organization to provide the reliable financial statements Trump's lenders and business partners will require.
Even if Trump's lenders were reluctant to call in their loans, Trump commonly refinances his loans as they come due. If you were a lender being asked by Trump to refinance a loan, and you knew the Trump Organization is under indictment and their financial statements are unreliable, how long do you think you would remain employed if you approved such a loan?
Trump may turn to private equity people for financial help, but that option is now less attractive to those people. Because Trump's current loans are now in default -- not because of lack of payment, but because the truth-telling requirements of the loan agreements were breached -- the original lenders have a claim on Trump's assets, which Trump cannot shed. In other words, Trump's collateral is encumbered.
In the past, Trump got out of tight spots like this by declaring the bankruptcy of one of his companies and sticking his investors and lenders with the bill. That won't work in this case because with a single declaration, Mazars made worthless all of Trump's financial statements of the last 10 years; thereby simultaniously affecting all Trump companies and/or partnerships (over 500 of them).
I think the Mazars declaration and exit will be the straw that breaks the camel's back. It will be the event that triggers the Trump Organization to collapse like a house of cards as Trump's lenders and business partners begin to see Trump as "Donald the Doomed" and begin their race to claim Trump's prized assets before others do.
Admittedly, I'm taking a leap here, assuming Trump's lenders and partners will respond as I suggest above. My view is conditioned by my own business experience in which Diane and I have submitted financial statements and tax returns to our lenders and business partners. When doing so, we must attest to their accuracy as a condition of doing business with these entities.
Trust in financial documents is an essential component in business relationships. When that trust is broken, as it now is (absolutely and irrefutably) in Trump's case, relationships quickly change. The lender that was once your friend becomes intent on seizing your assets. The partners who once wanted you to succeed become the jilted parties now seeking remedies for the harm done to them.
Finally, this is a national security item that should concern every American. With all other sources of credit now closed to Trump, Trump is desperate and therefore vulnerable as a mark. There are foreign lenders with ties to hostile governments who would happily lend Trump money and thereby place the former president of the United States in their debt. Trump's financial strength is pretty much kaput, but he has a trove of national secrets that he may be driven to trade for the financial support he desperately needs and can find nowhere else.