Dear EO constitutional scholars,
If the House of Representatives votes to impeach the President (which seems inevitable), what would happen if Mr McConnell simply refused to hold hearings in the Senate like he did with Supreme Court nominee Merick Garland?
That's a good question.
Starting with Mcconnell himself, we know from news reports
like this one what he said in March, 2019, months before House action to impeach became likely: Excerpt:
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said months ago that if the House goes ahead and impeaches President Donald Trump, the Senate “has no choice” but to conduct a trial to determine whether the president is removed from office.
In recent days, he has not ruled out a trial. Nor has he risen to defend Trump in a definitive way. One can speculate that McConnell is privately savoring this moment in which Trump's political, legal and even jail future rests McConnell's hands and Trump knows it. If Trump loses the presidency, he loses the legal protection that currently keeps various prosecutors from indicting him on various charges. He also loses the ability to delay investigations by asserting executive privilige. It is absolutely essential to Trump that he keep the presidency. A choice word or two by McConnell can open the gates for a trial and conviction. That puts McConnell in charge and Trump at his mercy.
Legally, I'm no constitutional scholar but I will speculate that if the House voted to impeach and McConnell refused to conduct a trial or tried to influence a trial in unfair ways, the House would immediately ask the courts to do whatever it takes to force the Senate to conduct a fair trial. How that turns out would remain to be seen.
Politically, if the House votes to impeach and McConnell refuses to conduct a trial, the political pressure would be intense. Some Republicans say that impeachment would motivate the base to turn out in 2020 to keep Trump in office. Present data does not support that. Current polls are showing a shift in favor of the impeachment inquiry, and (I presume) an underlying shift in favor of impeachment. The Trump base has not increased in size since Trump took office. If anything, it has declined (shown by polling data in rust-belt states). Trump supporters are already energized but they are a minority in the general population and their numbers are not growing. A McConnell refusal to conduct an impeachment trial would energize Democrats and, I believe, the majority of independents like never before.
It's wise to remember that Trump LOST the popular vote in 2016. If not for the Electoral College, Trump would not be president today. The Electoral College has no bearing on the sentiment of the voters who live in red and purple states. Also remember that most Republicans opposed Trump early in the 2016 race. They either left the party, became outspoken "Never Trumpers," (few in number), went silent or came around to later embrace Trump. Those Senate Republicans who easily embraced Trump as he became more popular in their states will just as easily abandon him when his popularity fades. For Senate Republicans, it's not about principle, it's about popularity and power. The instant Trump is no longer seen as a popularity and power resource is the instant they drop him like a hot potato.
Energized Democrats (and weakened Trump-supporting Republicans) produced a decisive victory in 2018 in which Democrats took back the house by a wide margin. That sentiment and those local campaign organizations remain in place, and may be even stronger and better organized than they were in 2018. There may be some exceptions in toss-up House districts but those are few in number. McConnell knows that and will factor it into his decision making. In 2020, the Republicans are defending 23 Senate seats and the Democrats are defending 12.
We would not know for sure until the courts ruled, but even if it was true that McConnell is not required to conduct an impeachment trial, if the House votes to impeach, McConnel would place much at risk if he refused to do so. He would also place much at risk if he chose to conduct that trial. While McConnell himself is up for reelection in 2020, he appears to have an iron grip on the seat. Democrats have yet to produce a credible challenger there.
If McConnell actually believes what he himself said in March, that the Senate has no choice but to conduct a trial if the House votes to impeach, that's the end of the story. If not he will have much to consider. If it comes to that, I believe the totality of the circumstances will move him to conduct a trial.
