The Trump Card...

Turtle

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Retired Expediter
Nor has he risen to defend Trump in a definitive way.
Well, no, of course he hasn't. He's a potential juror in a Senate trial. You aren't likely to see very many Republican senators give much of a full-throated defense of Trump at this point. They don't want to open themselves up to being accused of participating in a coverup. It's why that resolution on releasing the transcript to congress went unopposed.
One can speculate that McConnell is privately savoring this moment in which Trump's political, legal and even jail future rests McConnell's hands and Trump knows it.
That's one of the more ridiculous things I've read on this topic. One can also speculate that if Trump were found guilty and removed from office that President Pence would not pardon him, or that Trump wouldn't be found guilty and would not only win the popular vote in 2020 but would also win all 50 states in the Electoral College. One can also speculate that Mitch McConnell is strangely obessed with Jerry Nadler's buttcrack sweat and has copious amounts of it stored in jars and meticulously cataloged. All of these speculations have the same likelihood of coming true.
Legally, I'm no constitutional scholar but I will speculate that if the House voted to impeach and McConnell refused to conduct a trial or tried to influence a trial in unfair ways, the House would immediately ask the courts to do whatever it takes to force the Senate to conduct a fair trial.
Considering the fact that the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court would be the presiding judge over a Senate trial, it's highly unlikely that McConnell could convince the judge to go along with an unfair trial. But if he did, the only recourse the House would have for appeal is to that of the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court.
Some Republicans say that impeachment would motivate the base to turn out in 2020 to keep Trump in office. Present data does not support that. Current polls are showing a shift in favor of the impeachment inquiry, and (I presume) an underlying shift in favor of impeachment. The Trump base has not increased in size since Trump took office. If anything, it has declined (shown by polling data in rust-belt states). Trump supporters are already energized but they are a minority in the general population and their numbers are not growing
It's not surprising that polling data in favor of impeachment got a bump after Nancy's big announcement. Just the like favorability of impeachment took a big hit after the Mueller testimony. The real question is, does the current polling data have legs? And while the polling data might suggest Trump's base is not growing, and maybe even shrinking, the FEC donations data says otherwise. In the 48 hours after Nancy's big announcement, the Trump campaign raised more than $15 million in small donations ($200 or less), and 20,000 of those donors were new donors. It's very difficult to characterize that as a shrinking base.
A McConnell refusal to conduct an impeachment trial would energize Democrats and, I believe, the majority of independents like never before.
That probably true. A much more politically effective tactic would be to move to an immediate trial, and hand the Democrats a defeat.

The House Democrats want to move this to the Senate in order to be able to go, "Hey, America! We did all we could! So you need to vote for us again."

Since the day Trump was elected, the Democrats have been working hard, hard, and very hard, to come up with something to impeach Trump with. Everything from the literally fabricated Russia Collusion Hoax to digging up Ukrainian dirt on Manafort to Stormy Daniels to emoluments to taxes (you just KNOW there's some little impeachable nugget in those taxes) to now, a third-hand whistleblower account made possible by an incredibly Church Lady conveeeenient change in whistleblower requirements that by all appearances looks to be concocted, leaked and revealed in exactly the same way as the Steele Dossier. Except the people involved in the Steele Dossier, ir turns out, couldn't be kept anonymous. It's entirely possible, and very plausible based on previous attempts, that this whole thing was cooked up by anti-Trumpers in the administration (the Deep State, if you will), and fed to a whistleblower operative (in conjunction with the required changes in the whistleblower requirements to have first-hand knowledge of the complaint) so that the House would have to act on the complaint solely at face value and not be scrutinized because of whistleblower protections of anonymity, which is exactly what the House is trying fervently to do.
{if the president were removed from office] He also loses the ability to delay investigations by asserting executive privilige.
Here's a fun fact: He also loses the ability to delay investigations by asserting executive privilege if the House votes to officially conduct an impeachment investigation. That's not the same thing as Nancy's theatrics of announcing a formal inquiry (which keeps things precisely where they currently are - in the committees). If the House votes to undertake an official investigation, then the entire weight of the House of Representatives would be behind any and all subpoenas, and Trump can no longer claim executive privilege on anything that mattered.
 
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Turtle

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Retired Expediter
The Democrat Phases of Trump Resistance

Phase One: FEAR. The fear of what Trump will do as president. Real fear. He'll crash the stock market, get us into wars, get us all killed, he'll ruin the entire world. This fear was so strong it manifested in violence, and violent protests.

That fear and violence and inflamed passion has more or less dissipated by years where things are just going well. The big stuff, the economy, jobs, wars, etc. So people's fear have proven unfounded and has shrunk.

Phase Two: FACTS. They moved to facts. They held tough to the facts provided to them by reliable purveyors of fact like the MSM, Schiff, Waters. Trump colluded with Russia. Don't need the fear anymore, we have the facts. Whoops. Turns out Trump is working hard to eradicate AIDS. Nobody saw that coming. He worked hard on prison reform. Well, damn. Even the facts that are true, are either benign (Stormy Daniels) or they make Trump look good, or both (Stomy again). Inert facts with no power. But, but, but, he pressured Ukraine to dig up dirt on a political opponent. Except he didn't, and even if he did it's not even a crime. Well, crap.

So, no more fear, and they can't get him with the facts. Facts go away. Can't use facts facts against him anymore. What's left?

Phase Three: LIFESTYLE. At this point, resisting Trump is just a lifestyle. It's what you do if you're a Democrat (or an anti-Trumper). Whatever Trump wants, you want the opposite. You don't really know why, you just do. Sometimes reasons are given, but those all fall short, same as the facts did. The entire identity, reputation and social life is based on the lifestyle of resisting Trump. It's who they are, it's what they are, it's all they are. It's their brand.

It's an interesting (and I think, if I do sayso myself, a rather accurate) hypothesis. And it is a hypothesis bolstered by what's currently playing on the movie screen at the moment. Just the one screen, and just the one movie, but people watching it are seeing very different movies.

Some people see: Hero beats back coup attempt and asks an ally for perfectly legal help with a legal situation of great importance to the country, because the person in question is a potential candidate for the highest office in the country.

Other people see: Orange Hitler is flagrantly abusing his power by rummaging for dirt on his political opponent.

What happens now is, when you look at the resistance, the context of the Three Phases, is gonna make it all look different.
 

Turtle

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Retired Expediter
The latest polling from Quinnipiac University, released today, show Americans are evenly divided, 47-47%, on whether Trump should be impeached and removed from office.

A previous Quinnipiac poll published on Sept. 24, just before House Speaker Nancy Pelosi made her big, fat, hairy announcement on the launching of an official official impeachment inquiry, showed 37% backing impeachment and removal, and 57% in opposition.

But, and this is a big but (which I cannot lie, I like) this new support in today’s poll comes almost exclusively from Democrats, who are now 90% in favor of impeachment (and removal from office) to 5% against. Last week, they were 73%-21% in favor of impeachment. Trump's base not to mention the overwhelming majority of Republicans at large, remain unconvinced.

But, there's always hope that things might change.
 
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muttly

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Apparently there is an anti corruption treaty between the U.S. and Ukraine. Not only did Trump not break the law, he did what he was supposed to do in working with Ukraine to try to get rid of corruption. I guess the Dems argument is that once a person from their party decides to run for President, that insulates him and his family from any investigation. But those rules just apply for Dems.
 
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ATeam

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Retired Expediter
The question of McConnell's response to a House impeachment vote has now been answered. From NBC News:

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said Monday that the Senate would have to hold a trial if the House passes articles of impeachment against President Donald Trump.

"I would have no choice but to take it up," the Kentucky Republican told CNBC.

“How long you are on it is a different matter, but I would have no choice but to take it up based on a Senate rule on impeachment.”
 
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davekc

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McConnell says he will take it up, but he can just as easily I believe take a vote and if he has the votes, say they aren't going to do anything. He would have to.do a vote for that to work. I think he has the votes now based on what Graham has said.
 
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Turtle

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McConnell says he will take it up, but he can just as easily I believe take a vote and if he has the votes, say they aren't going to do anything. He would have to.do a vote for that to work. I think he has the votes now based on what Graham has said.
Yeah, he said the Senate rules, what they are now, require them to take on the impeachment trial. Of course, he can charge the rules any time he wants. But he also said, while he had no choice, how long they take it up is another story. I could totally see the Senate taking a vote really quickly, and being done with it.
 
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Ragman

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I thought the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court presides over the trial and sets the rules.....
 

davekc

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Yeah, he said the Senate rules, what they are now, require them to take on the impeachment trial. Of course, he can charge the rules any time he wants. But he also said, while he had no choice, how long they take it up is another story. I could totally see the Senate taking a vote really quickly, and being done with it.
That is what I am thinking. If it even makes it there they will do a quick headcount and it will be over. Especially with election coming up.
 
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Turtle

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That's it? No four paragraph explanation of the procedures? :pokepoke:
Nope. No need. The Senate has their rules and procedures in place for handling an impeachment trial. The Chief Justice presides, according to the Senate rules.
 

ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
That is what I am thinking. If it even makes it there they will do a quick headcount and it will be over. Especially with election coming up.

What's significant at this point is the fact that the Senate is talking about taking it up at all.

It now appears highly likely that the House will impeach. Years and months ago, some people were saying that would never happen. Now people are not saying it won't happen. They're talking as if it will happen and the next move will be up to the Senate. That's a big shift.

At present, the Democrats are successfully engineering a public opinion shift toward impeachment and conviction. They have the initiative. They control the timing. They will determine what the articles of impeachment say. They are using their multitude of campaign organizations and operatives to take their impeachment message to the country. They are framing and will continue to frame the impeachment debate.

As all this develops, the Senate is powerless to do anything until the articles are presented. Outside the Senate, the GOP is playing defense, trying to keep the public impeachment sentiment from taking further root. And they're losing that fight. Yes, if articles were presented to the Senate today, it could very well happen that they are taken up and quickly dismissed. But that's not gong to happen today. It will happen when the Democrats say it will happen and that will be when they think best.

As the Democratic/Republican impeachment debate and developments continue, I am absolutely confident that Trump will decompensate and blow himself out of the water. His narcissism-driven, self-defeating response or series of responses will leave Senate Republicans with no choice but to convict.
 
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Grizzly

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Clinton avoided talking about impeachment.
Trump can't stop talking about it. He's not in a swamp, he's in quicksand ...
 

muttly

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Retired Expediter
Clinton avoided talking about impeachment.
Trump can't stop talking about it. He's not in a swamp, he's in quicksand ...
Lol. He is fighting back. It is what he does. The RNC just posted 3rd quarter donations: 125 million. It will assist in pushing back the Democrats and their cohorts the Democrat Media Mob. Just saw a commercial that is already up about what the Dems are up to.
Couple that with the upcoming DOJ reports about the IC abuses. Trump will have a lot of ammo to flick the fleas off his suit.
 

Turtle

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What's significant at this point is the fact that the Senate is talking about taking it up at all.
They don't have a choice but to take it up. Not sure how significant it is in talking about that.
It now appears highly likely that the House will impeach. Years and months ago, some people were saying that would never happen. Now people are not saying it won't happen.
I am. I still don't think it'll happen. I hope it does, though. That'll guarantee that he gets reelected.
 
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