It is a shipper's market until a driver shortage develops. But when will it develop? By putting EOBRs in trucks, carriers can replace driver skills (log keeping, time management, routing, fuel decisions, etc.) with in-truck baby monitors and intense supervision from dispatch and other entities at carrier HQ.
EOBRs turn drivers into robots. The closer a driver is to a robot, the less trained and less paid he or she needs to be. The fewer skills you require of a driver, the greater the hiring pool becomes because the dregs of society become more available to you.
Every new hire with no experience has a perfect CSA record starting out. You can run one for a few months and fire him or her immediately, not when the first or second violation happens but when violations get too high for the carrier's comfort regarding its SMS totals and insurance premiums.
The longer you can run a dreg the better because it is cheap to do so, but if you have to replace one for CSA/SMS reasons, that's no problem at all since the dreg pool is large. They don't have to know enough to even keep a log book and the low pay for which dregs are willing to work more than offsets the cost of turning over a driver.
Interesting scenario but I see it applying more to the larger trucking companies than to expedite. While I agree the EOBR functions you mention will occur, most of these are already in place. I have several friends that drive for large fleets, and the routing, time management, and fuel purchases are already controlled over the Qualcomm. Some have Elogs, some don't. The "dregs" as you call them have been in place for some time. Companies hire them at the cheaper pay rate, and discard them after accidents or violations pile up. It's not new.
I believe there will be a driver shortage, but it may not be as bad as it would have been had the driving hours been cut to 10. The unknown is what this 30 minute break will do. That came out of left field and I haven't seen any facts as to what repercussions it may or may not have. I see more drivers quitting the industry because they do not want to deal with CSA and the HOS regs.
As for new drivers, their lack of experience behind the wheel would worry me more than whether or not there was an EOBR in the truck. If I'm on a snow covered interstate moving at what I feel is a safe speed for the conditions and I see a semi passing me I'm going to be more concerned that he has the experience to complete the pass without losing it and taking me with him.
I started on the Elogs a few months ago since I wanted first hand experience with them. Load 1 offers them, but they are not mandatory. They do require some input from the driver since they keep time by the minute rather than the quarter hour. I consider them to be redundant since paper logs can be verified by time versus speed, fuel purchases, and Qualcomm positions. The major difference is that a DOT officer can verify an Elog quickly where a paper log would require him to do some math. I do admit that I feel less in control with the Elogs than I did with paper logs.
I feel the biggest impact of the new HOS regs will come from the new 34 hour rule. It could have you sitting much longer than 34 hours to fulfill that 1-5 am nonsense. It will cost expedite drivers loads and of course revenue. This will be the major source of putting new drivers on the road since current drivers could be unavailable longer complying with it.
As I said in an earlier post, the changes are not going to improve safety or reduce accidents. There are merely a political move to appease the special interest groups and fill the pockets of the politicians in Washington.
