Dennis is such a daredevil...he coulda came to my place and I'd take him to ride some bulls....
I think he'd rather ride out Irene. *l*
After talking with my wife this morning, sounds like its gonna be a non event for Baltimore. Some rain, wind about 40 gusts to 50 and maybe about a 1' surge.
After it hits the Carolinas, my guess is it will probably follow the steering currents of the Gulf stream where the warm water is.
That would follow with the current track of 100 miles off the Eastern Shore. The gulf stream this time of year usually turns NE just before Long Island and heads to the Mediterranean. Leaving the east coast on the "clean" side of the storm atleast until it gets near Long Island. Then it all depends on how strong the Bermuda High is and its location as to whether the storm came follow the stream or gets pushed north.
Going in to a evacuation zone is usually the easy part. It's getting out with all the late traffic and lack of services like fuel.
On areas that normally don't deal with hurricane situations, the emergency planners seem to always be a day late.
For example, opening up the inbound side of an interstate to outbound including off ramps.
When we evacuated Clearlake Tx in 2005 for Rita, it was a mess. Took 30 hours to get to Austin. Normally a 3.5 hour drive. The powers that be closed all the exit ramps off of 45. It took 12 hrs to get from Clearlake to north Houston. People were running out of fuel and bareing all on the road side. Then some one had the bright idea to get fuel trucks along the roadside. Might have worked except ya can't get a 6" nozzle into a 1.5" hole.
After we made to Austin, we heard on the news that the south bound side of 45 was open to north bound traffic. Wasn't much traffic left. Stuff like that seems to worsen the evac process.
I can only imagine what the nightmare would have been had this maintained a cat 4 strength. Trying to move 10 million people a few hundred miles in a couple of days would be disastrous. Just my take on it.