The Trump Card...
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Takeaways From Recent Campaign Finance Reports
The first-quarter, 2024 campaign finance reports are now out. Excerpts from this news report about them:
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Donald Trump is spending as much on legal bills as he is on campaigning. Joe Biden, meanwhile, is building a reelection behemoth.
Biden’s campaign outspent Trump’s by nearly eight-to-one.
Biden’s campaign spent $29.2 million in March, much of which — about $21.8 million — went toward advertising.
In contrast, Trump’s campaign, which is mostly keeping its powder dry for the fall, spent just $3.7 million. ... [In March,] Biden outspent Trump by nearly a factor of eight.
Biden spent $2.3 million on payroll in March — nearly four times Trump’s $597,000. (Biden is building state campaign offices and organizer networks in various states that Trump is not at this point.)
Trump's Legal Bills
Trump’s leadership PAC spent nearly as much on legal bills in March as his campaign spent on everything else. His leadership PAC, Save America, has now spent about $60 million on legal consulting since the start of last year.
Save America’s legal spending has only been possible because a pro-Trump super PAC, Make America Great Again Inc., has refunded it to the tune of over $57 million — money that the leadership PAC had transferred to the super PAC in 2022, before Trump became a presidential candidate again. If Trump had not needed that money for legal bills, however, it could have gone towards advertising or other normal super PAC activities. The continued legal spending underscores how much Trump’s many legal troubles have vacuumed up resources that otherwise could have been devoted to helping his presidential bid.
Trump may need to find a new funding source for legal bills as Save America is down to just $4 million in the bank and can only get $2.75 million more from MAGA Inc.
Even with all his spending, [Biden] is still banking money for the rest of the campaign. Across his fundraising vehicles and including the Democratic National Committee, Biden had $192.9 million in cash on hand as of March 30, the new reports show. Trump, meanwhile, had $93.1 million.
The Political Parties
The Republican National Committee raised $20 million in March, by far its best month so far.
But even that influx of cash did not put the RNC in the same league as its Democratic counterpart. The Democratic National Committee raised $34 million in March and has more than double the cash on hand of the RNC: $45 million to $21 million.
RFK Jr.
... relatively weak fundraising otherwise by Kennedy’s world is calling into question his ability to make the ballot in every state and run a serious campaign operation this fall.
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The Short Story: Trump Falls $75 Million Behind Biden as Donor Base Shrinks
www.ft.com
The first-quarter, 2024 campaign finance reports are now out. Excerpts from this news report about them:
---------------------
Donald Trump is spending as much on legal bills as he is on campaigning. Joe Biden, meanwhile, is building a reelection behemoth.
Biden’s campaign outspent Trump’s by nearly eight-to-one.
Biden’s campaign spent $29.2 million in March, much of which — about $21.8 million — went toward advertising.
In contrast, Trump’s campaign, which is mostly keeping its powder dry for the fall, spent just $3.7 million. ... [In March,] Biden outspent Trump by nearly a factor of eight.
Biden spent $2.3 million on payroll in March — nearly four times Trump’s $597,000. (Biden is building state campaign offices and organizer networks in various states that Trump is not at this point.)
Trump's Legal Bills
Trump’s leadership PAC spent nearly as much on legal bills in March as his campaign spent on everything else. His leadership PAC, Save America, has now spent about $60 million on legal consulting since the start of last year.
Save America’s legal spending has only been possible because a pro-Trump super PAC, Make America Great Again Inc., has refunded it to the tune of over $57 million — money that the leadership PAC had transferred to the super PAC in 2022, before Trump became a presidential candidate again. If Trump had not needed that money for legal bills, however, it could have gone towards advertising or other normal super PAC activities. The continued legal spending underscores how much Trump’s many legal troubles have vacuumed up resources that otherwise could have been devoted to helping his presidential bid.
Trump may need to find a new funding source for legal bills as Save America is down to just $4 million in the bank and can only get $2.75 million more from MAGA Inc.
Even with all his spending, [Biden] is still banking money for the rest of the campaign. Across his fundraising vehicles and including the Democratic National Committee, Biden had $192.9 million in cash on hand as of March 30, the new reports show. Trump, meanwhile, had $93.1 million.
The Political Parties
The Republican National Committee raised $20 million in March, by far its best month so far.
But even that influx of cash did not put the RNC in the same league as its Democratic counterpart. The Democratic National Committee raised $34 million in March and has more than double the cash on hand of the RNC: $45 million to $21 million.
RFK Jr.
... relatively weak fundraising otherwise by Kennedy’s world is calling into question his ability to make the ballot in every state and run a serious campaign operation this fall.
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The Short Story: Trump Falls $75 Million Behind Biden as Donor Base Shrinks
Donald Trump falls $75mn behind Joe Biden in money race as donor base shrinks
FT analysis finds former US president is trailing his own campaign numbers from 2020
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As I expected, Trump did not raise $50 million as he claimed. The campaign finance reports are now out and nothing near that $50 megadonor total is reported. It seems Trump did not collect a lot of cash which he can spend. He seems to have collected pledges which he cannot spend unless those who promised to contribute come through at a later date. And even if they do, Trump remains far behind Biden in both his fundraising and spending on campaign expenses (millions paid to lawyers to defend Trump in court are not campaign expenses).
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Is Trump Going to Prison?
Is Trump going to prison? Maybe one day, but not any day soon.
"... most legal experts who spoke to USA TODAY said such a dramatic outcome is unlikely. Instead, [if convicted in the current NY criminal trial] he would likely be sentenced to something between probation and four years in prison. And he would probably still be out, free to campaign for president as the presumptive or actual 2024 Republican nominee, while his all-but-certain appeal was pending."
"Eisen co-authored a report looking at sentencing for other defendants with no criminal history who were convicted of falsifying business records in New York. There, he noted one construction executive was sentenced in 2015 to spend two days each week in jail for a year for falsifying records to conceal payments in a bribery scheme. In 2013, two corporate executives were ordered to spend four to six months in jail for falsifying records to misclassify their salaries as expenses under their employer's larger bribery and fraud scheme." (Source)
Is Trump going to prison? Maybe one day, but not any day soon.
"... most legal experts who spoke to USA TODAY said such a dramatic outcome is unlikely. Instead, [if convicted in the current NY criminal trial] he would likely be sentenced to something between probation and four years in prison. And he would probably still be out, free to campaign for president as the presumptive or actual 2024 Republican nominee, while his all-but-certain appeal was pending."
"Eisen co-authored a report looking at sentencing for other defendants with no criminal history who were convicted of falsifying business records in New York. There, he noted one construction executive was sentenced in 2015 to spend two days each week in jail for a year for falsifying records to conceal payments in a bribery scheme. In 2013, two corporate executives were ordered to spend four to six months in jail for falsifying records to misclassify their salaries as expenses under their employer's larger bribery and fraud scheme." (Source)
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On Buildings, the Trump Name Degrades the Value
"In February the New York Times reported that after Trump became president the value of apartments in buildings bearing his name had underperformed market value. Buildings which had stripped the Trump name had seen their value shoot back up."
www.theguardian.com
"In February the New York Times reported that after Trump became president the value of apartments in buildings bearing his name had underperformed market value. Buildings which had stripped the Trump name had seen their value shoot back up."
Residents push for renaming of Trump Plaza to disassociate from ex-president
Tenants of the high-rise in New Rochelle, New York, want to abandon the name which has at times affected real estate value
Is Melania Trump Woke?
"Former first lady Melania Trump is hosting a fundraiser Saturday for the Log Cabin Republicans, an advocacy group for LGBTQ+ members of the GOP. ...
"The Log Cabin Republicans group describes itself on its website as the country's 'largest organization representing LGBT conservatives and straight allies who support fairness, freedom, and equality for all Americans.'
"While speaking about her planned appearance at the event, Melania told Fox News, 'We must unite in our effort to establish a society where equality is the everyday experience of every American.'
"She added: 'Individual freedom provides a unifying set of principles, and ultimately establishes our American way. Together, we must nourish and safeguard the seeds of liberty...because, when successful, America blossoms into a magnificent place where everyone can practice their beliefs, share new ideas, and express individualism—this is when we are our best.'" (bold emphasis mine)
www.newsweek.com
"Former first lady Melania Trump is hosting a fundraiser Saturday for the Log Cabin Republicans, an advocacy group for LGBTQ+ members of the GOP. ...
"The Log Cabin Republicans group describes itself on its website as the country's 'largest organization representing LGBT conservatives and straight allies who support fairness, freedom, and equality for all Americans.'
"While speaking about her planned appearance at the event, Melania told Fox News, 'We must unite in our effort to establish a society where equality is the everyday experience of every American.'
"She added: 'Individual freedom provides a unifying set of principles, and ultimately establishes our American way. Together, we must nourish and safeguard the seeds of liberty...because, when successful, America blossoms into a magnificent place where everyone can practice their beliefs, share new ideas, and express individualism—this is when we are our best.'" (bold emphasis mine)
Melania Trump's fundraiser with gay organization: Everything we know
The Log Cabin Republicans fundraiser at Mar-a-Lago marks Melania Trump's first major political event appearance of 2024.
www.newsweek.com
Trump Turns His Legal Woes Into a Fundraising Machine
This Politico article provides a good analysis of Trump's most-effective fundraising technique. That said, the article omits the important fact that a large amount of the money raised is spent not on Trump's campaign, but on his legal expenses. Trump's lawyers are pocketing millions of MAGA-donor dollars.
Excerpts:
Former President Donald Trump has long used the legal cases against him to drive money to his campaign. It now looks like that may be the most effective tool he has going.
Trump’s best fundraising days this year have been driven by his legal jeopardy, which his joint fundraising committee has worked to monetize.
The messaging appears to be particularly effective when the former president faces new legal threats:
Trump’s campaign believes the combination of constant coverage of Trump’s trial and their decision to release near real-time fundraising appeals throughout it could prove to be effective.
“It’s a little bit of a soap opera,” the donor said. “They get results, because they message the play by play. The more all of that is on the TV, the higher his polls go, the more money comes in, the more sympathy and support,” the donor said.
The numbers suggest that, at least for Trump’s fundraising purposes, that may be right. When James took a step toward seizing Trump’s property if he failed to make bond in the civil matter, his Save America joint fundraising committee raised $2.6 million online that day from nearly 48,000 donors, including roughly 21,500 who were giving to Trump for the first time this cycle, according to a POLITICO analysis. The dollar total was more than five times a typical day for him this quarter.
The fundraising surge was by design: The group sent several emails that day mentioning James by name.
[Republican professional fundraiser:] “We’re so far behind the left on their low-dollar fundraising” that it’s unlikely to have a dramatic impact on Democrats’ small-dollar lead.
The New York trial also comes as Trump’s overall fundraising has been on an upward trajectory — an unsurprising trend as the election gets closer.
“As with any fundraising tactic,” noted Wilson, who also runs the Center for Campaign Innovation, a nonprofit helping conservatives with digital strategy, “you start to get diminishing returns as people are tapped out.”
This Politico article provides a good analysis of Trump's most-effective fundraising technique. That said, the article omits the important fact that a large amount of the money raised is spent not on Trump's campaign, but on his legal expenses. Trump's lawyers are pocketing millions of MAGA-donor dollars.
Excerpts:
Former President Donald Trump has long used the legal cases against him to drive money to his campaign. It now looks like that may be the most effective tool he has going.
Trump’s best fundraising days this year have been driven by his legal jeopardy, which his joint fundraising committee has worked to monetize.
The messaging appears to be particularly effective when the former president faces new legal threats:
Trump’s campaign believes the combination of constant coverage of Trump’s trial and their decision to release near real-time fundraising appeals throughout it could prove to be effective.
“It’s a little bit of a soap opera,” the donor said. “They get results, because they message the play by play. The more all of that is on the TV, the higher his polls go, the more money comes in, the more sympathy and support,” the donor said.
The numbers suggest that, at least for Trump’s fundraising purposes, that may be right. When James took a step toward seizing Trump’s property if he failed to make bond in the civil matter, his Save America joint fundraising committee raised $2.6 million online that day from nearly 48,000 donors, including roughly 21,500 who were giving to Trump for the first time this cycle, according to a POLITICO analysis. The dollar total was more than five times a typical day for him this quarter.
The fundraising surge was by design: The group sent several emails that day mentioning James by name.
[Republican professional fundraiser:] “We’re so far behind the left on their low-dollar fundraising” that it’s unlikely to have a dramatic impact on Democrats’ small-dollar lead.
The New York trial also comes as Trump’s overall fundraising has been on an upward trajectory — an unsurprising trend as the election gets closer.
“As with any fundraising tactic,” noted Wilson, who also runs the Center for Campaign Innovation, a nonprofit helping conservatives with digital strategy, “you start to get diminishing returns as people are tapped out.”
I'm finding it interesting that the Maga weenies have been awfully quiet on this subject.
The bond stands, but it does not stand as is. The judge imposed new conditions that address the concerns James raised (and I had).
From FOX News:
"The court decided the $175 million needs to be in cash — not in mutual funds or securities where the value can fluctuate. The court said Knight Insurance cannot trade or move the money, but said they will retain control of the account.
"The court also ruled that Knight Insurance must provide a monthly financial statement to James showing the $175 million in cash, and decided that the agreement cannot change without approval from the court."
This is a defeat in that James did not get the bond voided as she sought, but it's a win for the people of New York because the judge cured the major flaws in the bond as originally proposed.
- Before it was not a bond backed by actual cash controlled by someone other than Trump. Now it is.
- Before, Trump did not have to lock up $175 million in cash to secure this bond. Now he does.
- Before, it was not a real bond backed by Trump funds that are held beyond Trump's control. Now it is.
Here is the same story, spun to more accurately communicate the result of today's hearing.
Judge approves safeguards for Donald Trump's $175 million civil business fraud appeal bond
A New York judge approved an agreement Monday to strengthen the $175 million bond in Donald Trump's civil fraud case while he appeals.
www.usatoday.com
"Lawyers for Trump and James huddled to reach an agreement under which Schwab will maintain the account in cash and Knight will get exclusive control of the account. Engoron approved the deal."
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Thanks for the proper clarification Phil.The bond stands, but it does not stand as is. The judge imposed new conditions that address the concerns James raised (and I had).
From FOX News:
"The court decided the $175 million needs to be in cash — not in mutual funds or securities where the value can fluctuate. The court said Knight Insurance cannot trade or move the money, but said they will retain control of the account.
"The court also ruled that Knight Insurance must provide a monthly financial statement to James showing the $175 million in cash, and decided that the agreement cannot change without approval from the court."
This is a defeat in that James did not get the bond voided as she sought, but it's a win for the people of New York because the judge cured the major flaws in the bond as originally proposed. Before it was not a bond backed by actual cash controlled by someone other than Trump. Now it is. Before, Trump did not have to lock up $175 million in cash to secure this bond. Now he does. Before, it was not a real bond backed by Trump funds that are held beyond Trump's control. Now it is.
Because the bond stands in its modified form, it stands. And that means James is precluded from seizing Trump's assets until all of Trump's appeal options are exhausted. He'll be able to drag that out for months if not a year or more.
Here is the same story, spun to more accurately communicate the result of today's hearing.
Judge approves safeguards for Donald Trump's $175 million civil business fraud appeal bond
A New York judge approved an agreement Monday to strengthen the $175 million bond in Donald Trump's civil fraud case while he appeals.www.usatoday.com
"Lawyers for Trump and James huddled to reach an agreement under which Schwab will maintain the account in cash and Knight will get exclusive control of the account. Engoron approved the deal."
I Would Not Like This
I would not want to be in Trump's shoes (or seat) in the courtroom. A number of reporters are in a nearby overflow room, watching the trial via closed circuit TV. One of the cameras views the defense table from the front. Every second, reporters are watching Trump, waiting to report on his every twitch, itch, facial expression, and snooze.
If I was in his position, there would likely be times where I'd want to intentionally fold my arms, close my eyes, lower my head and catch a little nap. Or I might do the same thing, not to sleep, but to listen deeply to whatever is being said, or to think something through. But Trump can't do that lest it be portrayed in the national news that instant as a sign of weakness. Every second he's at that table, he has to be conscious of his every move.
That's not fun for anyone, but such is Trump's fate for the next few weeks. This troubles me a bit. I'd feel bad for anyone having to sit there like that. You're not even allowed to stand up if you'd like to stretch. You're not allowed to eat or drink. You're not allowed to use your phone. A coloring book might provide some welcome relief.
I would not want to be in Trump's shoes (or seat) in the courtroom. A number of reporters are in a nearby overflow room, watching the trial via closed circuit TV. One of the cameras views the defense table from the front. Every second, reporters are watching Trump, waiting to report on his every twitch, itch, facial expression, and snooze.
If I was in his position, there would likely be times where I'd want to intentionally fold my arms, close my eyes, lower my head and catch a little nap. Or I might do the same thing, not to sleep, but to listen deeply to whatever is being said, or to think something through. But Trump can't do that lest it be portrayed in the national news that instant as a sign of weakness. Every second he's at that table, he has to be conscious of his every move.
That's not fun for anyone, but such is Trump's fate for the next few weeks. This troubles me a bit. I'd feel bad for anyone having to sit there like that. You're not even allowed to stand up if you'd like to stretch. You're not allowed to eat or drink. You're not allowed to use your phone. A coloring book might provide some welcome relief.
Trump's Unearned Bonus Comes Tomorrow. Investors Get Diluted
These are the earnout shares I talked about above. By the design of the SPAC deal, these shares are created out of thin air and they go to Trump. When this happens, the shares investors previously bought become worth less because there are more of them now in circulation.
This is inflationary. It's like printing money out of thin air. The more pieces of paper (shares) there are floating around out there, the less each piece (share) is worth. If you own shares of DJT now, and the DJT insiders print more out of thin air, and they get all those shares, and you get none, your holdings are diluted. In other words, you got screwed by Trump and his insiders.
The term "earnout" is a misleading, made-up word. It implies Trump et al did something to earn these shares. They did nothing other than design this self-serving feature into the stock before the stock was issued. The underlying company is losing money hand over fist. Their leadership produced nothing of additional value to "earn" these shares. They earned nothing. They simply created shares out of thin air to enrich themselves at shareholder expense.
With other companies, earnouts are sometimes paid in return for the company hitting certain performance standards that show up on the balance sheet as things like net revenue, positive EBITA changes, sales growth, etc. That is not the case with this Trump Media and Technology Group deal. That company is a corrupt company, designed by corrupt people, for a corrupt purpose. And, very soon, you can see the corruption playing out before your very eyes.
These are the earnout shares I talked about above. By the design of the SPAC deal, these shares are created out of thin air and they go to Trump. When this happens, the shares investors previously bought become worth less because there are more of them now in circulation.
This is inflationary. It's like printing money out of thin air. The more pieces of paper (shares) there are floating around out there, the less each piece (share) is worth. If you own shares of DJT now, and the DJT insiders print more out of thin air, and they get all those shares, and you get none, your holdings are diluted. In other words, you got screwed by Trump and his insiders.
The term "earnout" is a misleading, made-up word. It implies Trump et al did something to earn these shares. They did nothing other than design this self-serving feature into the stock before the stock was issued. The underlying company is losing money hand over fist. Their leadership produced nothing of additional value to "earn" these shares. They earned nothing. They simply created shares out of thin air to enrich themselves at shareholder expense.
With other companies, earnouts are sometimes paid in return for the company hitting certain performance standards that show up on the balance sheet as things like net revenue, positive EBITA changes, sales growth, etc. That is not the case with this Trump Media and Technology Group deal. That company is a corrupt company, designed by corrupt people, for a corrupt purpose. And, very soon, you can see the corruption playing out before your very eyes.
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Additional Thought About Trump's $175 Million Bond
Now that the court has imposed changes on the original bond Trump posted, hindsight suggests Trump would have been better off posting the $175 cash with the court instead of using that now-required cash to secure the bond issued by the insurance company. Had Trump simply posted the $175 million cash with the court, he would have avoided the fees the insurance company is charging to provide the bond.
Now that the court has imposed changes on the original bond Trump posted, hindsight suggests Trump would have been better off posting the $175 cash with the court instead of using that now-required cash to secure the bond issued by the insurance company. Had Trump simply posted the $175 million cash with the court, he would have avoided the fees the insurance company is charging to provide the bond.
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Here is the math for Trump Media's earnout plan:
Before earnout shares:
- Current share price (April 22 close): $35.50
- Current shares outstanding: 136.7M
- Market capitalization: $4.85B
- Shares outstanding: 136.7M + 40.0M earnout = 176.7M outstanding
- Market capitalization: $4.85B (earnout value added = $0)
- Adjusted share price: $4.85B / 176.7M = $27.45
- Percent price adjustment down: ($27.45 / $35.50) -1 = (22.7)%
The Trump Media Stock Price (DJT) Is About To Adjust Down By -22.7%
Handing out new shares does not produce growth
www.forbes.com
Trump is Subdued Today
Reading through the live updates from Trump's criminal trial so far today, Trump seems subdued. There are no reports of him speaking out of turn, making inappropriate gestures, expressing emotions, or otherwise doing something that might attract the judge's attention. Today, Trump is being a good boy, sitting politely at the table as he is told. He may be adapting to his new required routine.
The contempt hearing was completed this morning. The judge did not immediately rule on the motion to find Trump in contempt.
Reading through the live updates from Trump's criminal trial so far today, Trump seems subdued. There are no reports of him speaking out of turn, making inappropriate gestures, expressing emotions, or otherwise doing something that might attract the judge's attention. Today, Trump is being a good boy, sitting politely at the table as he is told. He may be adapting to his new required routine.
The contempt hearing was completed this morning. The judge did not immediately rule on the motion to find Trump in contempt.
Example: "Trump’s body language changed when Pecker started testifying about the catch-and-kill deal involving McDougal. He started moving his head, squinting and pursing his lips, and then crossed his arms over his chest." (Source: New York Times)
It would be 1000% better if the trial was televised. Then no one has to rely on reporters to see people's behavior, tone, and body language.
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