The chances of Alberta leaving there about the same as the Texas leaving the union
I dunnnoooo. Ontario and and Quebec seems to look for ways to screw Alberta, going back to the tariff walls where they instituted high tariffs on tractor production in Alberta to promote tractor production in Ontario.
Canada’s overall demographic situation is similar to the rest of the developed world, i.e., a large population moving toward retirement and hardly any young people in the replacement generation coming up. However, Alberta does not fit that mold. It is the youngest province by far, and is becoming younger, better paid and more highly skilled... as the rest of Canada becomes older and less skilled, and a financial ward of the state.
Then, of course, there's energy. What used to be primarily a provincial economy based on ranching has become one of oil and gas production. Alberta is second in the world only to Saudi Arabia in oil reserves. The US will be energy independent within a year or two thanks to shale oil. And between Alberta and the US, it's that shale oil that is severing the strongest link between us in North America and the rest of the world. The Middle East is becoming someone else’s problem.
You've got the eastern provinces just sucking the life out of Alberta and its oil, despite provincial constitutional controls over that oil. British Columbia has been hostile to Alberta’s efforts to diversity oil exports and the Atlantic is more than 2,000 miles away. That leaves the pipeline to the south. Combine that with the demographics of wealth transfer of an Alberta that is anything but liberal. Right now, every man, woman and child in Alberta pay $6,000 more into the national budget than they get back. Ontario thinks that's just awesome. Alberta is the only province that is a net contributor to that budget, and by 2020 the number is expected to exceed $20,000 per person, $40,000 per taxpayer. That will be the greatest wealth transfer in per capita terms in the Western world. The only other place we see things like that is in Saudi Arabia, where the oil-producing regions subsidize the rest of the country. Of course, in Saudi Arabia the "rest of the country" is very sparsely populated and the oil producing regions are controlled by the population centers. It's the exact opposite in Alberta where Alberta is sparsely populated and is subsidizing the eastern populations. That's not exactly in the playbook of a province that is more than 70% conservative.
The secessionist talk dies down when the Stephen Harper conservatives were elected, but Stephen Harper’s watch, a government that talks the talk about being pro-Alberta, Alberta’s tax bill has tripled. So just like in the US, it doesn't really matter who's in Ottawa, they're gonna soak up as much as they can. It doesn’t matter if it’s this government, the next government, or the one after that, the demographic trends are locked in. If you get a government in Ottawa that isn’t Conservative, isn’t born, bred, raised and trained in Alberta, what do you think they’re going to be doing to the tax policies? Same ol' same ol'.
Alberta as an independent country doesn’t solve a huge number of problems, and actually creates more than it would solve. If it left Canada and formed its own country, or even one in cahoots with BC and Sask (neither of which really want anything to do with seceding), its currency goes through the roof because all it has is oil exports, and that would drive agriculture out of business. It would be a one-horse economy in a very short time. Just like Saudi Arabia.
However, seceding to the U.S. becomes a very viable, maybe even the only political and economic option. If they do that, the inflation issue goes away, the tax problem goes away, the security problem goes away. Alberta gets everything it says it wants out of Canada within the first year of joining the U.S. And Congress would ratify such an expansion in a New York minute, what with the US then instantly becoming not only energy independent, but the dominant world power in oil and gas.