On Jan 1, I stopped posting in the Open Forum because the first quarter of the year is the busy season in the gym business and Diane and I needed to focus there.
I'm back now to offer a few comments about my prediction that Trump will be impeached by the Republicans who have the power to do so, so Pence can become their president of choice. Regrettably, once the comments are posted, I must again exit the forum.
Now open 2.5 years, our gym is known in the community as is our reputation. That contributed to an unexpectedly strong surge in business this season and an all-time high in membership numbers. Customer service is now vital so the many new members who joined will be well served and inclined to stay. Time is money and I don't make money chatting here (as fun as it is).
Trump has been in office just two months. While he can still fill stadiums with campaign-like rallies, his base has not grown stronger. The recent and monumental failure of "repeal and replace" provided clear evidence that Members of Congress do not fear Trump's base as much as I thought they might.
Trump gave Freedom Caucus Republicans an ultimatum. They did not care. It mattered more to them that they remained true to their constituents than to Trump. In the districts where Trump did very well, these Congressmen stood firm against Trump, no matter how many meetings he had with them and how much power he tried to exert and how many implied threats he made.
Trump can fill stadiums with adoring fans but he cannot mobilize those fans to influence the vote of a Congressperson. That became clear this week. That fact is not lost on the political professionals. It is a fact that will be profoundly important when the impeachment debate begins.
The Russia thing continues, not because of the mainstream media but because formal investigations are now underway by the (Republican majority) House Intelligence Committee and the FBI. The (Republican majority) Senate Intelligence Committee (chaired by a Republican) announced that hearings will be held soon on the Russian-ties questions. Republicans don't have to do this but they are. Why? Maybe because they are laying the groundwork for impeachment?
Trump's credibility as a deal maker went down in flames when the repeal and replace bill was pulled. That's not to say his previous business deal making skills are degraded. It just shows how the presidency requires a vastly different skill set than that of a business empire CEO.
An example of that is the travel ban. Trump signed the orders and they have been blocked by the courts.
Most of the executive orders Trump signed early on were symbolic showmanship having little effect. If people did not know that then, they are figuring it out now as the hinted-at results do not appear.
Trump's credibility as a strategist was also shattered when repeal and replace went down. He stood "1000 percent" behind this bill and worked hard to get it through. This for a bill that enjoyed just 17% approval by the general public. Why would a clever strategist get behind a bill so poorly supported?
Trump's reputation as a winner is also coming into question. He lost on the travel ban and lost on repeal and replace.
Trump will likely win on the Gorsuch nomination to the Supreme Court. In the interests of constitutional integrity, I will urge my senators to vote for Gorsuch. The man made it crystal clear that he is constitution first, not Trump first. It seems to go unnoticed by most Republicans that Gorsuch goes to a notably liberal Episcopal church to worship God. This tells me that Gorsuch is his own man and not Trump's man. I believe the Constitution will be safe under this eminently qualified jurist's stewardship. If a Trump-backed claim reaches the Supreme Court, Trump will receive no special treatment from Gorsuch.
Trump's reputation as a conspiracy theorist who has an inaccurate grasp on reality was enhanced when virtually every Member of Congress (Republican and Democrat) and the FBI rose to say there is no evidence to support Trump's claim that Trump Tower was under surveillance by Obama.
An easy thing for Trump to do would be to declare China to be a currency manipulator. Why has he not fulfilled that campaign promise? Might it have something to do with the money he owes to the Bank of China? Trump's conflicts of interest have not been in the news of late but they persist and they will rise again in the impeachment debate if not sooner.
Trump promised action to impose term limits on Congress. That too can be easily initiated (hard to complete but easy to initiate). Why has he not done this easy thing?
I made my prediction of Trump's impeachment before Inauguration Day. I did not anticipate the anti-Trump uprising demonstrated by the Women's March in the following day. The question then was, does this resistance movement have legs? With the passage of time, it is now evident that it does The millions who rose nationwide in January rose again, better organized than ever, to oppose repeal and replace. They had an effect.
When Trump picked Obamacare as his target, he may not have realized how important that health insurance is to the people who now have it. Many of these people rose to protect their health care interests who have not been involved before. Others were Trump supporters who were shocked to learn that Trump really is willing to leave them with nothing when they had something highly valued before.
There is a clear philosophical difference between Democrats and Republicans regarding the role of government in health care and whether health care is a right or privilege. It seems to me that several years of Obamacare and the repeal and replace firestorm has shifted the country very much toward the view that health care is a right. Trump has said he supports universal health care. He may revert to that position to regain his lost popularity.
That will be repugnant to strongly conservative Republicans. And it will be even more repugnant for them to hear Trump saying we need to work with the Democrats as he is now saying. Can you see how Pence will become their preferred alternative? Can you see how impeachment is not the far afield thought it was on Inauguration Day?
Trump can still fill stadiums with adoring fans but I expect empty seats to appear in the future. The wall has not been built or even started. The Muslim ban has been stopped. Repeal and replace gave way to "Obamacare is the law of the land" (Speaker Ryan's words). Sears is about to go bankrupt and put over 100,000 people in the unemployment lines and Trump is doing nothing to stop it. Why does he not save Sears jobs like he saved Carrier jobs?
Trump has plummeted in the job approval polls. The Rassmussen poll was mentioned in this forum when Trump's approval rating reached 55%. Today it is 11 points lower. More significantly, his disapproval ratings have risen. See
this page for the ongoing Rasmussen results. Other polls place Trump much lower. One cited 37% which is an all-time low and that was before the repeal and replace failure.
An example of the betrayal Trump's hard-core supporters feel or will feel is
provided here. This former Trump supporter says, ""The bill is an absolute betrayal of what Trump represented on the campaign trail," he said. "I feel betrayed."
Look for more of that in the future. As the base erodes and Republicans figure out that Trump hurts them more than he helps, the impeachment debate will begin.
Those are my comments at the end for First Quarter, 2017 with Trump in office 60+ days. Could Trump turn things around? I do not think so. A better man could but a narcissist cannot. For Trump, it's all about him. It's not about the country. It's not about keeping campaign promises. It's not about fighting for something important when you can cut and run instead (repeal and replace). For a narcissist, everything is good or bad depending on how it affects you in the moment. He is talking now about working with the Democrats. He'll betray the GOP in a heartbeat if the Democrats can help him feel better about himself.
In the end, Trump's narcissism will be his undoing.
Thanks for listening. I'll offer additional comments sometime after July 1. The case for impeachment is stronger now than when I first predicted it. I expect it to be even stronger in three months.