The Trump Card...

[Turtle]

Trump will have to do some pretty serious wrongs, like more than just make people mad, before the House could trump up some high crimes and misdemeanor charges. Granted, "high crimes and misdemeanors" means pretty much whatever Congress says it means, still, he would have to be performing exceedingly poorly in the favorability polls before Congress could act. Even with Nixon, the impeachment process never gained any steam until Nixon started really tanking in the polls. If Trump ordered the National Guard to start patrolling Dearborn and started rounding up Muslims and putting them in internment camps, ordered federal contractors to begin building a wall along the southern border without any congressional funding or against the explicit wishes of Congress, then he might have a problem.

 

[ATeam]

...Granted, "high crimes and misdemeanors" means pretty much whatever Congress says it means, still, he would have to be performing exceedingly poorly in the favorability polls before Congress could act.

That is exactly how I expect to see this play out. The day Trump outlives his usefulness to the Republicans he deeply offended is the day Pence becomes the answer and impeachment proceedings begin.

 

[Turtle]

Quite possibly. But I think more than anything, the question will be whether it's advantageous to either party. Impeachment, conviction and removal from office is very rare for a President (this would be the first, actually). A Trump impeachment would certainly benefit the Democrats, as long as the impeachment isn't viewed as a continuation of sour grapes. But Republicans run the very real risk of flushing their future as a party down the toilet if they, as the controller of both houses in Congress, impeach their own guy if it looks like they're doing it because Trump is messing with their gravy train.

The People will let Congress know what to do.

 

[ATeam]

A Trump impeachment would certainly benefit the Democrats.

How so? With Pence having few negatives and Trump having many, how would the Democrats be helped if the Republicans replace Trump with Pence?

 

[Moot]

Some of Perot's most adamant supporters were certifiable nut cases.

That also applies to Clinton supporters and the woman herself.

 

[davekc]

That is my thinking. I don't think very many have guts to take him on. Look how he mastered the media to win. I agree that he would really have to screw up multiple times for them to even talk about it. Just my thinking based on what I have seen so far. I do agree some will turn on him, but I don't believe it would be enough.

 

[ATeam]

Look how he mastered the media to win.

Those who live by the media die by the media.

 

[Moot]

I can't see Trump being forcefully removed from office. This country needs to heal and come together after the mess of this election year. Also, I don't see Trump running for a second term. He, like Jesse Ventura will get bored or overwhelmed with the job and Pence will head the Republican ticket in 2020.

 

[ATeam]

I can't see Trump being forcefully removed from office. This country needs to heal and come together after the mess of this election year.

I don't see the Republicans particularly concerned about healing the country. These are the people who impeached Clinton. These are the people who were willing to shut down the entire government over a budget item. They are not troubled by conflict and they are willing to go all-in to get their points across.

 

[Turtle]

A Trump impeachment would certainly benefit the Democrats.

How so? With Pence having few negatives and Trump having many, how would the Democrats be helped if the Republicans replace Trump with Pence?

Trump won't be President. That's their end game. They'll be able to pat themselves on the back and feel good about what they've done. They can stop crying, they can finally stop 'literally shaking,' they will once again be able to... EVEN.

They realized they can't have a do over on the election, or figure out a way to have the popular vote negate the Electoral College, now they're trying to game the Electors. That won't work, so they're left with impeachment. By the time Pence gets settled in and can start to accomplish anything at all, there's another election where the Democrats can take it all back.

 

[ATeam]

Reading a bit about this, here are some interesting quotes from various sources.

1. "We’re not likely to see an impeachment anytime soon, for the same reasons that the Republicans were unable to stop Trump from winning the nomination: Trump has consolidated the GOP base as his own personality cult, thereby cowing Republican officeholders."

2. "There’s also the matter that, for Republicans — particularly, those whose seats are not a sure thing — impeaching Donald Trump could be tantamount to career suicide. Voters who cast their votes for Trump aren’t likely to take lightly any attempts by their representatives to impeach him."

3. “Many elected Republicans, perhaps most, consider Trump to be a threat to their brand and priorities. They worry that Trump is unhinged. (Who, apart from Trump himself, doesn’t?) To see Trump disappear and leave things to Mike Pence, a lockstep party man with all of Trump’s traditional rightist views and none of Trump’s eccentricities or heresies, would be a dream-come-true for Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell.”

4. "The Republican Party establishment, its public pre-election misgivings and hand-wringing to the contrary, has fallen in love with Trump. The GOP leadership will overlook any transgressions to keep him in office for one simple reason—he’s their ticket to power, and power is all that matters."

5. "Ladbrokes the bookmaker has just slashed the odds on the president-elect leaving early due to being impeached or having to resign – before he’s even been sworn in as the country’s 45th president. The bookies opened the market at 3-1, before cutting it to 5-2 and, eventually, again down to 9-4, after a massive flurry of bets that Trump wouldn’t finish the term."

My summary: As long as his base sticks with Trump, he is safe. But in the insider game Washington is, the skids toward Trump's impeachment are already greased. Trump has few long-time political friends. If his actions or declining popularity threaten the power of the House and Senate seat holders, there is little reason for them to not impeach.

The central question is, how long will Trump's base continue to support Trump, and what new supporters, if any, will rise for his benefit?

Odds makers are increasingly looking for Trump to be impeached, but what do they know?

 

[ATeam]

A Trump impeachment would certainly benefit the Democrats.

How so? With Pence having few negatives and Trump having many, how would the Democrats be helped if the Republicans replace Trump with Pence?

Trump won't be President. That's their end game. They'll be able to pat themselves on the back and feel good about what they've done.

If you are talking about a short-term emotional response, you are correct. Impeaching Trump will help the Democrats feel better, just like defeating Hillary is helping the Republicans feel good now. But longer term, and speaking about winning elections in 2018 and beyond, the Republicans would be better served by having the less-encumbered person (Pence) in office, would they not?

 

[davekc]

If the Republicans were to make a change, it would have to be someone other than Pence. He is too controversial among liberals and too chained to Trump at this point.

 

[Ragman]

....it would have to be someone other than Pence. He is too controversial among liberals ......

Not really. Pence is well known to us in the Midwest. As the Governor of Indiana, Pence was in the news often. Even the most leftist liberal considers him a good man.

 

[Turtle]

But longer term, and speaking about winning elections in 2018 and beyond, the Republicans would be better served by having the less-encumbered person (Pence) in office, would they not?

Individual Republicans, on a personal level, probably. The party as a whole, maybe not so much. Your statement assumes a premise of Trump truly being encumbered. He wiped the floor in the primaries with 16 contenders. In the general election, as well as the primaries, he had the Democrats against him, he had the press against him, and even had his own party against him. And he still won. His only real encumberment is those around him who want the status quo, to keep their power and gravy train rolling, and the fact that he can't be bought.

People think Trump is unhinged, and in the context of your run-o-the-mill political candidate, he's so unhinged that he doesn't even know what a hinge looks like. But in the context of someone with a proven history of getting things done, of the prudent spending, and a history of those who have worked for and with him having nothing but praise for him, he's pretty firmly attached. You can't be unhinged and build the businesses he's built, or raise children of the character he has.

 

[Turtle]

....it would have to be someone other than Pence. He is too controversial among liberals ......

Not really. Pence is well known to us in the Midwest. As the Governor of Indiana, Pence was in the news often. Even the most leftist liberal considers him a good man.

Must be a different Mike Pence. Pence is a staunch social conservative, the exact opposite of even a moderate liberal, much less a leftist liberal. His promoting and then signing of Indiana's Religious Freedom Restoration Act will likely never be forgotten or forgiven by liberals. As a congressman, Pence opposed federal funding that would support treatment for people suffering from H.I.V. and AIDS, unless the government simultaneously invested the exact same amount of funds in programs to discourage people from engaging in same-sex relationships. He is also dead-set against changes to hate-crime laws that include LGBTQs. And he vigorously opposed the end of “don’t ask, don’t tell,” a Clinton administration policy that allowed closeted LGBTQ people to serve in the military, and went far as to advocate for bringing back the "ask and you'd better tell" part of it.

Nor have they forgotten (at least those in Indiana) how Pence, after he was mired in negative press, had plans he was later forced to abandon when they were exposed, of starting a state-run news agency to combat the free press.

 

[ATeam]

Your statement assumes a premise of Trump truly being encumbered. He wiped the floor in the primaries with 16 contenders. In the general election, as well as the primaries, he had the Democrats against him, he had the press against him, and even had his own party against him. And he still won.

Fair point. His victory over Hillary can be explained away by the fact that she herself was a massively encumbered candidate. Trump's victory over numerous other Republicans in the primaries, many of them with years of experience and polished political talent, is harder to dismiss as a fluke or something undeserved.

In your opinion, what did they miss that Trump got? How did it come to be that Trump became the Republican nominee and none of the others did?

 

[davekc]

I really think as the media says (with some truth) he played to what people wanted to hear while others did not. Specifically to date, trashes and mocks anything "politically correct". Hey "Merry Christmas" is back in. That kind of thing. People in the middle of the country just got tired of catering to illegal immigrants and every type of minority with everything from free college to every benefit imaginable. Follow that with you need to do your fair share and support a refugee and people went blank. And that is after O care and the other disasters. Put that up against a criminal running and you have a winning candidate.
No need to complicate the simple. lol

 

[Turtle]

In your opinion, what did they miss that Trump got? How did it come to be that Trump became the Republican nominee and none of the others did?

Going back at least as far as 2008, people wanted change. The same ol', same ol', wasn't cutting it. People were tired of watching factories close up and seeing the production moved to China and Mexico. People were angry after they watched Walmart tout "Made in USA"and then move all too quickly to "We have the cheapest prices! Always!" and all of it cheap pieces of crap made in China. People wanted change so badly that Obama got elected, twice, by a rather large margin, by promising Hope and Change. He didn't deliver. What he gave us was more of the same, only less transparent.

Now it's 2016 and the other Republican candidates were all promising the same stuff Hillary was promising, more of the same ol' Band-Aids being put on the same ol' festering wounds. It's why Bernie Sanders got the rousing welcome he got. Change.

The American people heard all the 16 other candidates (and Hillary) say, "I hear you when you say you're mad. I will work to solve the issues that make you mad."

The American people heard Trump say, "This country is a mess. I'm mad. What we've been doing isn't working, so I'm gonna stop it and we're gonna fix it. Dammit."

They heard Trump speak without the filters of political correctness, without the finesse of a politician, and with the determination of results-oriented businessman who will not accept mediocrity.

 

[skyraider]

I like it when he sounds like a General, and not a pansy from ..........wherever OB was from...by the way ,where was he from...