The Defining Issue of 2024

[muttly]

Abortion rights are well ensconced in NY, and it's highly unlikely this was a key factor in this local election. New Yorkers know their abortion rights aren't going anywhere, and they even welcome abortion seekers from other states. The main issues in the upcoming national election will be the economy, health care and immigration with abortion down the list tied with the environment. Abortion is simply not the top of mind national issue that radical liberals would like it to be.

Election 2024 poll: How voters feel about key issues

Newsweek's new tracker poll has found that a majority of voters don't believe the U.S. has control of its borders.

www.newsweek.com

The Left will micro target with TikTok abortion propaganda to college kids that are squirreled away from real world issues affecting most Americans like inflation and lower wages due to illegal immigration. But, again, this will be national election with Trump on the ballot providing coattails for some Republicans whether they deserve it or not.

 

[ATeam]

Abortion Rights Progress in Another Red State

The Republicans don't seem to get it, and I'm beginning to believe they never will.

GOP lawmakers try to thwart abortion rights ballot initiative in South Dakota

South Dakota’s Republican-led Legislature is trying to thwart a proposed ballot initiative that would enable voters to protect abortion rights in the state constitution.

apnews.com

 

[ATeam]

Abortion Rights in North Carolina

This thread is titled "The Defining Issue of 2024." Last night was Super Tuesday and the presidential primary elections dominated the news. In elections in 16 states, where mostly party members vote for candidates of their own parties to help determine their party presidential nominees, Trump and Biden dominated.

Regarding abortion rights, which were not an issue in these party primary races, North Carolina gave us this glimpse.

From CNN: "North Carolina is Biden's best chance to flip a state from the 2020 map, and it's also home to the highest-stakes governor's race of the year. The contest is between GOP Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson and Democratic state Attorney General Josh Stein, and the policy debate could be dominated by abortion rights in the Tarheel State, where the Republican legislative supermajority passed a 12-week ban over the objection of outgoing Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper."

Yet again, in yet another state, we see abortion rights rise as the defining issue of 2024. Since Roe v. Wade was overturned by the Supreme Court, we've seen several elections in several states where abortion rights were on the ballot. In every case, the people voted overwhelmingly to restore the abortion rights the Supreme Court took away. Abortion rights bring people to the polls to reverse the Republican overreach, to reject the Republican abortion restrictions the people do not want.

It appears the same thing is shaping up in North Carolina. In that state's governor's race, abortion rights voters will turn out in droves to elect the Democrat whose abortion views align with their own. And while they're voting in the other races on the ballot, they are likely to vote blue.

 

[ATeam]

Abortion Rights in North Carolina

This is the candidate North Carolina MAGA people advanced for governor. While that may make perfect sense to a strident MAGA party follower, it makes little sense to anyone wanting to win the general election. I was thinking abortion rights would be important in the NC race. It seems women's rights, including womens' right to vote, will also be on the radar. Look for a historic high women turnout in the Nov. election in NC.

Mark Robinson's Bizarre Ramble: 'I Absolutely Want To Go Back To The America Where Women Couldn’t Vote'

In a newly unearthed video, North Carolina’s GOP nominee for governor says America was better then because Republicans "fought for real social change."

www.huffpost.com

 

[Ragman]

This is the candidate North Carolina MAGA people advanced for governor. While that may make perfect sense to a strident MAGA party follower, it makes little sense to anyone wanting to win the general election. I was thinking abortion rights would be important in the NC race. It seems women's rights, including womens' right to vote, will also be on the radar. Look for a historic high women turnout in the Nov. election in NC.

Mark Robinson's Bizarre Ramble: 'I Absolutely Want To Go Back To The America Where Women Couldn’t Vote'

In a newly unearthed video, North Carolina’s GOP nominee for governor says America was better then because Republicans "fought for real social change."

www.huffpost.com

Mental MAGA Minions they are, indeed!

 

[ATeam]

Seven States and Counting

Source: OpenSecrets

 

[muttly]

Has that number figured in the possible, if not likely Trump landslide and the accompanied coattails for down ballot candidates?

 

[Pilgrim]

Some interesting statistics on abortion numbers since the Dobbs decision. Notice the increase in abortions for Florida. Obviously, abortion has not been banned in the US.

"The number of abortions performed each month in the United States is about the same as before the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade and the nationwide right to abortion more than a year and a half ago, a new report finds...

Although the number of monthly abortions has dropped to nearly zero in states with bans, it has risen in states that allow abortion, including Florida, Illinois and Kansas, which border states with bans."

Number of Abortions in US Remains Steady, Report Finds

How abortions are provided is different since the nation's top court overturned the right to abortion, the report says

www.voanews.com

 

[ATeam]

Has that number figured in the possible, if not likely Trump landslide and the accompanied coattails for down ballot candidates?

You know the answer to that. Trump was not running when these ballot questions were decided. But I would not count the Trump coattail chickens before they hatch in 2024. Abortion rights are a stand-alone issue and the majority of voters will vote against any politician who threatens to take those rights away. As I said in the name of this thread, abortion rights are the defining issue in 2024.

At present, Trump coattails is a myth, a phantom, an idea without substance. You have no way to know what the coattail effect, if any will be. But based on prior voter behavior, even in red states, we have a pretty good idea of how the abortion questions motivate voters.

 

[RLENT]

Trump's "coattails":

Republicans first lose the House.

Republicans then lose the Senate and the Presidency.

Finally Republicans supposed "Red Wave" up and vanishes with a weak showing where they barely regain control of the House ... which continues to fizzle under the chaos and dysfunction brought by the MAGA Morons™

#surejan

 

[muttly]

Trump's "coattails":

Republicans first lose the House.

Republicans then lose the Senate and the Presidency.

Finally Republicans supposed "Red Wave" up and vanishes with a weak showing where they barely regain control of the House ... which continues to fizzle under the chaos and dysfunction brought by the MAGA Morons™

#surejan

Trump wasn’t on the ballot in 2018 and 2022. How many House seats did they pick up when he was on the ballot? They increased totals in both elections in the House.

 

[muttly]

You know the answer to that. Trump was not running when these ballot questions were decided. But I would not count the Trump coattail chickens before they hatch in 2024. Abortion rights are a stand-alone issue and the majority of voters will vote against any politician who threatens to take those rights away. As I said in the name of this thread, abortion rights are the defining issue in 2024.

At present, Trump coattails is a myth, a phantom, an idea without substance. You have no way to know what the coattail effect, if any will be. But based on prior voter behavior, even in red states, we have a pretty good idea of how the abortion questions motivate voters.

Trump has a history of coattails in the House. Both of his elections they’ve increased totals. That’s not a myth. It’s real data.
There are more people affected by sky high inflation and energy prices than abortion.

 

[coalminer]

Trump has a history of coattails in the House. Both of his elections they’ve increased totals. That’s not a myth. It’s real data.
There are more people affected by sky high inflation and energy prices than abortion.

Plenty of people understand that the president has nothing to do with inflation and energy prices, but the the GOP has gone out of their way to outlaw abortion.

 

[ATeam]

Trump has a history of coattails in the House. Both of his elections they’ve increased totals. That’s not a myth. It’s real data.
There are more people affected by sky high inflation and energy prices than abortion.

"Looking ahead to November, the presidential race could decide more than just who the next president is. It could also determine which party controls the Senate or House or even a state’s legislature. And that’s because of something political science calls the “coattail effect,” which is when the popularity of a candidate at the top of the ticket — we’re most interested in presidential coattails — boosts the fortunes of candidates from the same party lower down on the ballot.

"Political science has long tried to measure just how big of an effect this is, and most research does suggest that down-ballot candidates gain at least a few votes thanks to the performance of the candidate at the top of the ticket, but estimates vary as to the actual size of the coattail effect. For instance, in House races, where we have the most data, some studies have found anywhere from a 0.2-point to 0.5-point bump for a House candidate for every 1-point increase the presidential candidate experiences in the vote share. That may not sound like much, but if a candidate in a competitive House seat has attracted 48 percent of the vote by herself, a strong performance by the same party’s presidential candidate could boost her vote share just enough that she clears the 50 percent mark and wins." (Source)

The slight difference -- (0.2 to 0.5 percent ) per 1% of presidential candidate margin only becomes important if the margin is large. The coattail effect is not automatic. According to this research, Trump must produce a wide lead when voting starts to have any meaningful coattail effect at all. But abortion rights are highly meaningful and they have consistently proved to be an important factor in Democratic turnout.

If you're banking on Trump coattails to somehow impact the abortion rights vote, your bank balance is thin.

 

[muttly]

"Looking ahead to November, the presidential race could decide more than just who the next president is. It could also determine which party controls the Senate or House or even a state’s legislature. And that’s because of something political science calls the “coattail effect,” which is when the popularity of a candidate at the top of the ticket — we’re most interested in presidential coattails — boosts the fortunes of candidates from the same party lower down on the ballot.

"Political science has long tried to measure just how big of an effect this is, and most research does suggest that down-ballot candidates gain at least a few votes thanks to the performance of the candidate at the top of the ticket, but estimates vary as to the actual size of the coattail effect. For instance, in House races, where we have the most data, some studies have found anywhere from a 0.2-point to 0.5-point bump for a House candidate for every 1-point increase the presidential candidate experiences in the vote share. That may not sound like much, but if a candidate in a competitive House seat has attracted 48 percent of the vote by herself, a strong performance by the same party’s presidential candidate could boost her vote share just enough that she clears the 50 percent mark and wins." (Source)

The slight difference -- (0.2 to 0.5 percent ) per 1% of presidential candidate margin only becomes important if the margin is large. The coattail effect is not automatic. According to this research, Trump must produce a wide lead when voting starts to have any meaningful coattail effect at all. But abortion rights are highly meaningful and they have consistently proved to be an important factor in Democratic turnout.

If you're banking on Trump coattails to somehow impact the abortion rights vote, your bank balance is thin.

Abortion won’t be the defining issue affecting voters in a presidential election.

 

[muttly]

Looking back at the two previous elections where Trump was on the ballot. In 2016 Republicans lost 6 House seats and in 2020 they picked up 13.
In the run-up to both those elections Trump trailed in the national polls by at least a few points. Trump lost the popular vote by about 3 million in 2016 and roughly “twice that amount” in 2020. In most all the national polls Trump was trailing before the election, but Republicans still picked up 13 seats in 2020. This cycle shows Trump leading anywhere from 2 to 8 points in the national polls. We shall see how that extrapolates to the amount of coattails for Republicans. But he is in a much better position to get elected than at any point previously with some saying it’s looking like a landslide victory.
Add to that, Biden has the worst job approval rating in the history of presidential polling.

 

[ATeam]

Abortion won’t be the defining issue affecting voters in a presidential election.

Abortion affects people the same no matter what month, year, or election cycle it is. This issue does not come and go like some other policy issues do. Since SCOTUS overturned Roe v. Wade, abortion rights have consistently motivated people to the polls. Anti-abortion Republicans have much to fear in any election because they are out of step with the people on abortion rights.

Just today, VP Harris visited a reproductive health clinic. She is the highest-ranking public official to ever do so. The Democrats will make sure abortion rights is the defining issue in 2024, because it is for them a winning strategy.

 

[muttly]

Abortion affects people the same no matter what month, year, or election cycle it is. This issue does not come and go like some other policy issues do. Since SCOTUS overturned Roe v. Wade, abortion rights have consistently motivated people to the polls. Anti-abortion Republicans have much to fear in any election because they are out of step with the people on abortion rights.

Just today, VP Harris visited a reproductive health clinic. She is the highest-ranking public official to ever do so. The Democrats will make sure abortion rights is the defining issue in 2024, because it is for them a winning strategy.

A desperate strategy. They can’t run on anything else. They are losing to Trump on every other important issue affecting voters.

 

[muttly]

Looking back at the two previous elections where Trump was on the ballot. In 2016 Republicans lost 6 House seats and in 2020 they picked up 13.
In the run-up to both those elections Trump trailed in the national polls by at least a few points. Trump lost the popular vote by about 3 million in 2016 and roughly “twice that amount” in 2020. In most all the national polls Trump was trailing before the election, but Republicans still picked up 13 seats in 2020. This cycle shows Trump leading anywhere from 2 to 8 points in the national polls. We shall see how that extrapolates to the amount of coattails for Republicans. But he is in a much better position to get elected than at any point previously with some saying it’s looking like a landslide victory.
Add to that, Biden has the worst job approval rating in the history of presidential polling.

 

[ATeam]

A desperate strategy. They can’t run on anything else. They are losing to Trump on every other important issue affecting voters.

A winning strategy.