1) We knew an attack was coming from a year prior, according to broken codes, eavesdropping on the Japanese ambassador, and the fact that we were watching Japanese spies in Hawaii.
Quite possibly, but not the details - we didn't know
when.
2) We provoked the Japanese into a war with us.
Almost certainly, yes. Between the dissolution of the 1911 commercial treaty with Japan, and the enacting of the Export Control Act, and then freezing the assets of Japan in the US, add to that the oil embargo, it made Japan pretty mad.
3) Our aircraft carriers were ALL out to sea when the attack happened.
A couple of things. One, OK, they weren't in port, and were therefore out of harms way of the attack. What does that mean? Almost nothing, that's what. Even the most inept commander wouldn't send ALL of our carriers out to sea to protect them from an anticipated attack, while at the same time sacrificing 8 battleships, 8 cruisers, 30 destroyers, and 4 submarines, among many others (
Ships Present at Pearl Harbor, 0800 7 December 1941 - us.navy.mil) by leaving them sitting there like ducks in a pond at port. As Stimson wrote in his diary,
"The question was how we should maneuver them [the Japanese] into firing the first shot without allowing too much danger to ourselves." Leaving that many ships in port was the opposite of "not allowing too much danger to ourselves."
Two, saying ALL of our carriers were out to sea is a little like Pravda saying that the US finished all the way down in next-to-last place, and the Soviet Union finished way up in second place, during a basketball tournament where the US beat the Soviets in the finals. (that was actually how it was reported by Pravda)
In December 1941 the
entire Pacific Fleet consisted of three aircraft carriers. Three, count 'em, three. And you can count on one hand how many times all three of them were ever in the same port at the same time. On the other hand (or foot), you'd need more than just your fingers and toes to count how many times all three were not in port at the same time. So stating that all of our carriers were out at sea means little or nothing in terms of being tied somehow to advanced knowledge of the attack.
You said in a earlier post in this thread,
"One piece of proof that we knew it was coming is that our carriers were all out on maneuvers, without escort."
That's fundamentally incorrect, on several levels. For one, it gives no proof whatsoever that we had advanced knowledge of the attack. This is especially true since the "without escort" is just flat out wrong. All three carriers of the Pacific Fleet were out of port with a normal escort accompaniment. A somewhat light escort for wartime, and possibly light for an impending outbreak of war, perhaps, but "without escort" is far from being even remotely close to accurate.
The carriers
Yorktown (CV-5), Ranger (CV-4) and
Wasp (CV-7) (along with the aircraft escort vessel
Long Island (AVG-1)), were in the Atlantic Fleet, not the Pacific Fleet. The
USS Hornet (CV-8), commissioned in late October 1941, had yet to carry out her shakedown cruise.
Yorktown would be the first Atlantic Fleet carrier to be transferred to the Pacific, sailing on 16 December 1941.
On December 7, 1941 the Pacific Fleet consisted of three aircraft carriers; USS
Enterprise (CV-6), USS
Lexington (CV-2), and USS
Saratoga (CV-3).
Enterprise: On 28 November 1941, Admiral Husband E. Kimmel sent TF-8, consisting of Enterprise, the heavy cruisers Northampton (CA-26), Chester (CA-27), and Salt Lake City (CA-24) and nine destroyers under Vice Admiral William F. Halsey, Jr., to ferry 12 Grumman F4F-3 Wildcats of Marine Fighting Squadron (VMF) 211 to Wake Island. Upon completion of the mission on 4 December, TF-8 set course to return to Pearl Harbor. Dawn on 7 December 1941 found TF-8 about 215 miles west of Oahu.
I'm not sure that I would categorize three heavy cruisers and nine destroyers as being "without escort" (unless I needed to do so to make it fit with my conspiracy theory, of course).
Lexington: On 5 December 1941, TF-12, formed around Lexington, under the command of Rear Admiral John H. Newton, sailed from Pearl to ferry 18 Vought SB2U-3 Vindicators of Marine Scout Bombing Squadron 231 to Midway Island. Dawn on 7 December 1941 found Lexington, heavy cruisers Chicago (CA-29), Portland (CA-33), and Astoria (CA-34), and five destroyers about 500 miles southeast of Midway. The outbreak of hostilities resulted in cancellation of the mission and VMSB-231 was retained on board [they would ultimately fly to Midway from Hickam Field on 21 December].
Wow, three heavy cruisers and
only five destroyers. Of course, it's only five because TF-12 went to Midway, which is between Honolulu and Wake, and not all the way to Wake itself. Still, not really "without escort", tho.
Saratoga: The Saratoga, having recently completed an overhaul at the Puget Sound Navy Yard, Bremerton, Washington, reached NAS San Diego [North Island] late in the forenoon watch on 7 December. She was to embark her air group, as well as Marine Fighting Squadron (VMF) 221 and a cargo of miscellaneous airplanes to ferry to Pearl Harbor.
I'm pretty sure that Saratoga was under escort even from Puget Sound to San Diego.
Then again, one cannot be too sure. Stranger things have happened. In 1943 the Navy found itself in a situation where my dad, at 17 years old, was the only qualified helmsman on board an aircraft carrier in the South Pacific. Whoops.
I would say that's a justifiable conspiracy theory that, at the very least, shows the US was expecting, or even wanting to enter the war. At the most it says we knew when the attack would occur, and refused to tell the defending troops. Personally, I don't think something on that grand a scale, knowing what we knew, could've happened without a heads up... UNLESS those in charge CHOSE to be ignorant.
I agree that's it's a justifiable theory, at least some of it is. A lot of the theory can be, and has been, debunked beyond refutability. But a lot of it is dead on balls accurate, too. There's no question that FDR had a dislike for both Japan and Germany, a fondness for China, and was itching to get into the war in Europe. But this only happened after the New Deal kind of waned in 1937 and he turned to foreign policy matters to further his political ambitions, including getting elected for an unprecedented third term. Up until that time he paid very little attention to foreign matters. The American people and Congress wanted nothing to do with a war in Europe, but Germany and Japan were close allies, and logic dictated that the US involved in a war with Japan would also force Germany to pull the US into the war in Europe. An "unprovoked" attack by either Japan or Germany (the US was also poking a stick at Germany at the time, too), would solve a lot of problems.
But like I said, the real truth lies somewhere in between the two extremes of the US orchestrating it wholly, and in being caught totally by surprise. The fact that ALL (three) of our carriers were out of port on that day, with regard to bolstering the conspiracy theory, and all of the parts of the theory that hinge on that "fact", is so wrong, it stands to reason that other parts of the theory might also be wrong. And some of them are wrong. But some of them are right. The ones that are right do not make the ones that are wrong, right. There are two sides to every story, and what matters is not what you can conjure up, assume or invent, what matters is the facts.
But like I said earlier, what if the theory is 100% stone cold genuine true blue bona fide accurate? Now what?
I still need a load for tomorrow.
