Who going to win

[iceroadtrucker]

SO WHO IS GOING TO WIN

MCAINE the self proclaimed Maverick.

OR

OBAMMA (Yes we Can)

Well you all know on the 5th by 11pm yes

or

The News Media is calling it already with out so many words.

 

[drivingmecrazy]

Obama will win this election. The main reason is health care. And MCCain will lose, the main reason is because of Sarah Palin pick, and he has done some strange stuff- for instance those faces he kept making on the split screen debate... my son and his college friends spoof that to the "T" I have to beg them to stop, crying from laughter!!! And then there was the rush to get back to Washington to solve our banking problem, and well we all know how that turned out. I do hope that Obama puts his talents to good use, just because I wont vote for MCCain, I am sure there is some use for his talents in Washington.

 

[LDB]

Unless there is a miracle we the people of the United States are going to lose. An avowed socialist is about to be elected because of racism and ignorance.

 

[layoutshooter]

Leo is right, no matter who wins we lose. The only way we can really win is to cancel the election and go without a president. Get rid of the Congress too and we will be on our way. Health care smelth care, more socialist garbage. You just wait and see just how much more it will cost you and just how little you will get for it. By the way, where is the "health care" amendment? You know, that pesky little document called the Constitution? Osama Obama ignores it too. Give up any part and you are slaves. Obama the first "Massa" of the
United Soviet Socialist States of America. Thank you one and all. Layoutshooter

 

[Jayman]

I predict the old man will pull this off for the following reasons.

1. Despite what the media says...there are still a lot of sensible people in the U.S. who trust McCain more than they do Obama.
2. The race is closer than it is being reported.
3. Obama has a problem closing.
4. A lot of people between the ages of 25-40 who were going to vote for Obama will actually vote for McCain because of the "spread the wealth" issue.
5. Some Obama supporters will stay home, especially young ones who think victory is at hand.
6. Some Obama supporters plan to vote, but when they see the 2 hour line...they will get lazy and not vote.
7. McCain supporters will vote because they know its important and the race is close.
8. People will remember Jeremiah Wright, William Ayers, and the others who make them question Obama.
9. Biden's comment about being tested 6 months after Obama takes office will scare some people McCain's way.
10. Murtha's comments may cause Obama to lose Pennsylvania. If that happens...it may be catostrophic for Obama.
11. Obama has no experience.
12. People fear having 1 party control congress and the white house.

 

[Turtle]

History practically dictates that Obama will win. Throughout our history we have had, up to now, four "pivot point" elections, where history was changed and the United States was headed in new directions, by the elections of 1800, 1860, 1932 and 1980.

In the 12 years following adoption of the Constitution, the new nation was governed by its Federalist founding fathers, led by George Washington and John Adams. Then, in 1800, Adams was defeated by Thomas Jefferson, a founding father but not a Federalist. Then, until 1860, the presidency was held by the Democratic Party created by Jefferson and institutionalized by Andrew Jackson, a reign interrupted only briefly by a few relatively unimportant Whig administrations.

In 1860, the new Republican Party, led by Abraham Lincoln, took office and held power for 72 years (with a couple of Democratic exceptions, Grover Cleveland and Woodrow Wilson, neither of whom ever won 50 percent of the vote) until the election of Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1932. Then, with the exception of the above-party presidency of Dwight Eisenhower and the aborted presidency of Richard Nixon, the New Deal Democrats of Roosevelt basically ran the country until the election of a Republican, Ronald Reagan, in 1980. The Democrats managed to elect two presidents in the Nixon-Reagan years, but neither of them, Jimmy Carter nor Bill Clinton, ever won 50 percent of the vote. So, for all practical purposes, the Reagan Republican is still president, represented now by a pale imitator, George W. Bush.

These "pivot point" elections were all very similar to each other, and to this election. Each of them was marked by the same conditions: economic decline, over-reactive wars, or war talk, that led to repression of civil liberties at home.

In 1800, John Adams ended Federalist rule by over-reacting to war fever and pushing through the Alien and Sedition Acts, which were the repressive Homeland Security laws of their day. The Jefferson-Jackson era lasted until the 1850s, when the country moved toward civil war because Democrats, many of them Southerners, proved incapable of finding a national policy to deal with the issues of slavery among other issues. Lincoln's party reigned until economic collapse led to the Great Depression and the election of Franklin Roosevelt. Failed wars in Southeast Asia and the Iranian hostage crisis led to the elections of Nixon and Reagan.

There was a significant inertia produced after each of those pivot elections; the ideas that made presidents of Jefferson, Lincoln, Roosevelt and Reagan produced issues that kept their constituencies alive and well for years, even decades, after their own administrations.

And now we have 2008. The country is engaged in two unpopular (and probably unwinnable) wars, the economy is in ridiculously dangerous decline, and civil liberties have been aggressively repressed by the Bush administration in the name of the War on Terror.

Therein, historically, lies the strength-of-destiny of the candidacy of Barack Obama. Despite his obvious political talents (he's more talented politically than even Clinton was), it is hard to imagine a young, black two-year senator rising toward the Presidency of the United States of America, the most powerful man on the planet, if his Republican opponent could have preached the winning doctrine of peace, prosperity and low taxation. But there is no peace, there is no prosperity, and we have high taxes. Obama is a lock. History demands it. This is a Regan defeat more than it is an Obama victory. Let's see if he can make something of it. Let's see how many Democratic terms will result from the defeat, and let's see if this is the fifth "pivot point" election in our history.

 

[RLENT]

Leo - there will not be a miracle.

Jayman - nice try - sounds logical and all, but it ain't gonna happen.

Great analysis Turtle - it is spot-on .....

There is however an additional factor that you didn't cover ...... one that has been evolving from at least certainly from the point of Chicago and Kennedy's election .... and most particularly in the last several election cycles ..... voter fraud.

Expect it to be widespread and rampant - and expect most of it come from either illegals or young idealistic kids ..... probably most of them in college ..... who have been seduced by the idea that if only the right guy (Obama) could get his hands on the reins of power, all would be well and right with the world.

And my guess is that most of it will be virtually undetectable (register to vote wherever you are going to school and then request that absentee ballot from home)

The party with those most inclined to do this are the Democrats - generally because the rank and file Republicans are moral people for the most part .... whitebread America (not that there isn't plenty of corruption in the Republican Party machine itself - there is - it's just that there aren't enough numbers there to actually influence the election)

The rank and file Democrats are an entirely different matter however - and here's why:

The basic differences in the ideologies of the two parties are this - the Democrats do not believe social behavior should be regulated (anything goes, do your own thing, etc.) - but that economic behavior should be (taxation as a method to control behavior, regulation to "level" the playing field)

The Republicans believe that social behavior should be regulated (abortion, flag-burning, same-sex marriage, etc) but that economic behavior should not (free trade, etc.)

Or at least that is what they are supposed to believe and stand for ......

A much higher percentage of the rank and file Democrats will be inclined to commit criminal acts to see their man get in - afterall the true-believer, the idealist knows the ends justify the means.

And when it happens, you will see moves made like never before to ensure that their hold on power is permanent ...... and you thought Clinton opened the floodgates on illegals .... you ain't seen nothing yet.

What the (elected) Republicans have squandered since Reagan was the chance to truly change the course of the country from the path that Woody and Frankie Delano put it on ...... almost a 100 years ago. They could have done it ...... but instead they pizzed it down the toilet ..... being the weak-knee'ed, spineless, effeminate sissies that they are.

They had the Presidency, both Houses, and nearly a majority in the Judicial Branch (certainly right-leaning) ..... for years ....... instead, they gave you Iraq, a trillion dollar financial bailout, and a ballooning national debt that your grandchildrens' grandchildren probably will still be paying on .....

My only (rhetorical) question is: "How do you like it ...... NOW ?"

(Note: in case it's not clear, only the 4th paragraph above is being addressed to Turtle individually - the remainder is just a general broadside )

 

[layoutshooter]

I will not support Obama if he wins. He stands for everything that I spent 20 years of my life fighting. Wars my hind end. These are little brush fires. You have not seen a war. Russia is expanding again. Iran with it. China will join. South America will fall soon. It is coming. I might not know the books and things as well as I should but I did spend 20 years learning how to analyse military situations. This is the worst I have seen. Obama has "0" backround to handle it. Hard to imagine someone dumber than Bush in military affairs but he is it. As to civil liberties, let's see, Fairness Doctrine? No right to keep and bear arms? Letting babies die on the table? Total control of most news outlets? I will not ceed anything. I earned my freedom. I will never live under Marxism. How many is Obama willing to kill in this country? That is how Marxists are. I take that oath I took to "Protect and defend the Constitution of the United State from all enemies both forgien and domestic." VERY seriously. Obama hangs with traitor therefor he must be one himself. That is how I believe. I live in a black and white world. I don't give in. I never have. I would not serve for Bill Clinton, a man who's character was so bad he would not have been able to pass a backround check to get the clearences that I had. Obama is worse. Just look at just one question on the application for the backround check. The wording may be a bit off, it has been several years since I filled one out. Question: Have you, or anyone you know or have associated with, ever plotted the overthrow of the Government of the United Sates? Like Ayers? In my world you are who you hang with. A traitor is just that, a traitor. I was born a free man I WILL die one. Obama is not qualified to lick my shoes. I despise him and all that he stands for. That IS my right. Layoutshooter

 

[Turtle]

"There is however an additional factor that you didn't cover ...... one that has been evolving from at least certainly from the point of Chicago and Kennedy's election .... and most particularly in the last several election cycles ..... voter fraud."

Well, while voter fraud is an important issue, I didn't cover voter fraud because it really doesn't have to do with the larger overall picture of the "pivot point" elections. There will be voter fraud, but it's not too far of a stretch to compare today's voter fraud with the polling taxes of yesterday, or the "must own property and be a WASP male to vote" of the day before that. It's not perfect, never has been, but if this is, indeed a "pivot point" election, then any vote fraud won't matter. Truly.

Let's say there is widespread and rampant voter fraud, and let's say Obama wins because of that fraud. If this is a "pivot point" election, then years from now, decades from now, it won't be the voter fraud that will be talked about and studied, it will be how America reacted to the new direction it took, and to where it went.

 

[hdxpedx]

I hold the MAIN STREAM MEDIA by their throats! They NEVER ATTACKED obumer.. FREE PASS all the WAY = GEORGE SORO"S WINNER!!

 

[layoutshooter]

And Soros has been pushing Marxism for years. I really think he owns Obama. layoutshooter

 

[LDB]

Voter fraud and racism. Those are the factors that give Obama the win. If Obama were a whiet man it wouldn't be close at all. If the vote were completely legal and honest it would be very close and Obama would lose.

 

[Turtle]

I hold the MAIN STREAM MEDIA by their throats! They NEVER ATTACKED obumer.. FREE PASS all the WAY = GEORGE SORO"S WINNER!!

Oh, they'll turn on him, though. Not sure when, but it'll happen. They always do. And it'll be fun to sit back and watch it.

Voter fraud and racism. Those are the factors that give Obama the win. If Obama were a whiet man it wouldn't be close at all. If the vote were completely legal and honest it would be very close and Obama would lose.

You keep talking like if Obama wins then it's an Obama win. It's not, it's a Regan defeat. Doesn't matter who the Democrats run out there, or who the Republicans run out there, the Regans lose. If Obama weren't black, then race wouldn't be the issue that it is, but it would be, absolutely, some other issue that does the Republicans in, like, oh, I dunno, the issues themselves, like two bad wars, no prosperity, Homeland Security's theft of liberties, etc.

I just got my crystal ball back from the cleaners, and it's working perfectly. The only thing the stupid thing won't reveal to me is whether Obama will be worse than Carter, or better than Carter. It all may hing on whether or not Obama is a freemason, since Carter has been the only non-freemason president, and he was really bad. Coincidence? I dunno.

 

[LDB]

If Obama wins it's due to racism and voter fraud, primarily racism. If Billyjoebob Dingusdorf were a duplicate of Obama in every way except he was caucasian he wouldn't win and almost assuredly wouldn't even be the nominee. Your historical points are good but the deciding factor in this particular instance is race, not a disavowing of Reagan or anything else. Those may be factors but they are secondary and minor in comparison.

 

[hdxpedx]

When FOX - the only MEDIA who throws a mic in the faces of ALL the former obumer assOcites-- THEY ALL TURN AND RUN LIKE RATS.. c**kroaches...NEVER stand-up and say anything!!!

 

[layoutshooter]

That is because they are Marxists and that makes them cowards and liars by nature. The very idea of Marxism is flawed therefor those who embrace it are flawed. They know that this candidate is not qualified and likely a criminal and the less they say and the more they hide less "stuff" will surface. If it ever does, and he is the president, it will be ignored. Scum is scum, I am not surpised by the "crud" that comes out of the mouth of a Marxist.
Layoutshooter

 

[CharlesD]

Well, this one's in the bag. Obama has already gotten so many votes secured through early voting that there is no way McCain can come back. In fact, Obama doesn't need any more votes in order to win. He already has enough, so if you support him, there's no need to even show up at this point. Just get a bottle of champaign and start celebrating.

 

[pjjjjj]

Question.. was talking to someone the other day, who pointed out.. how do they know how the early voters are voting?

 

[RLENT]

Uhhh ..... exit polling mebbe ?

 

[Turtle]

If Obama wins it's due to racism and voter fraud, primarily racism. If Billyjoebob Dingusdorf were a duplicate of Obama in every way except he was caucasian he wouldn't win and almost assuredly wouldn't even be the nominee. Your historical points are good but the deciding factor in this particular instance is race, not a disavowing of Reagan or anything else. Those may be factors but they are secondary and minor in comparison.

There's no question that racism is THE factor here. None. But that's a small part of the bigger picture. That's a symptom, not a cause. I maintain that it's the disavowing of the Regan Republicans that have allowed racism to become the issue that it is. Again, two failed wars, reduced civil liberties, no one is prospering, people want change so bad they can taste it, and McCain represents more of the same, or at least not enough of a change to get behind him. A smooth talking darker version of Bill Clinton is telling people exactly what they want to hear, and since he's black, race becomes the issue. If Billyjoebob Dingusdorf were white race wouldn't be the issue, but something else would be, and McCain would still lose.

The big picture is really quite this simple: If we had peace and prosperity, Obama, wouldn't stand a chance of winning this thing. Yeah, Race would still be an issue, but it would be the same issue that it was when the previous black candidates were on the ballots.