That is exactly what will happen. The rates WILL rise as fewer trucks qualify and o/o's with the older obsolete (cali anyhow) trucks do other things...
For the sake of owner-operators who have invested big money in their reefer trucks, I hope you are correct, but I would not bank on it.
CARB rules are not new and older trucks have been phasing out for a while now; not only because of CARB rules but also because older trucks get replaced in the natural course of events.
The reefer business that expediters do in California is a microscopic slice of the overall reefer business done in California. Huge numbers of reefer trucks haul produce out of California every day. If we were going to see a meaningful increase in reefer rates due to a shortage of reefer trucks prompted by CARB regulations, I think we would have seen it by now.
Just this week, Diane and I drove by the Thermo King dealer near Fort Wayne, IN where Jeff Jones builds big-sleeper expediter trucks and has reefers installed on some of them. There were about a half-dozen brand-new reefer straight trucks sitting there. Presumably, these trucks have buyers waiting for them, or the expectation is that buyers will soon be found.
While some people are opting out of California, others are paying the higher prices for these new reefer trucks, helping to keep the California fleet fresh. And they are doing so with no guarantee that California rates will rise to offset the higher expense.
For a while now, there has been a fair amount of speculation by owner-operators that a reefer-truck shortage will develop in California because of CARB regs. But if such a shortage is developing for real on the ground, I have yet to see it.
And if such a shortage does develop, it will not take long for the marketplace to respond to the higher prices the shortage produces and inject additional units into the market, increasing the supply and putting downward pressure on prices.
Just because an owner-operator runs a reefer truck, it does not follow that he or she treats the business like a business, knows one's operating costs and maintains price discipline.