One event does not a trend make, but the 6/20/20 Trump rally in Tulsa presents some interesting numbers; the likes of which have never been seen at Trump rallies, which are usually, if not always, filled to overflowing with enthusiastic Trump supporters.
While numerous explanations are offered by Trump supporters and critics alike, I'm in no rush to form an interpretation. Other rallies will be held soon. I'll watch the turnout numbers at those to see what conclusions may be drawn.
Excerpts from various news sources:
"Fewer than 6,200 people attended President Trump's campaign rally at the BOK Center in Tulsa, Okla., on Saturday night, the Tulsa Fire Department said. Andrew Little, the public information officer for the city fire department, told Forbes that a fire marshal recorded the tally, which indicated that the event fell far short of reaching the arena's full capacity of 19,000"
"Ahead of the event, Trump campaign officials said that hundreds of thousands of people had registered for tickets, boasting that it represented massive enthusiasm from his supporters."
"Trump had also hyped the event by tweeting that "almost One Million people" had requested tickets."
About the outdoor overflow event that was canceled the evening of the rally,
"The President received a report that only about 25 people were assembled in the overflow space the campaign had reserved for a crowd Trump claimed five days earlier would top 40,000."
Fifty-nine thousand were projected to attend. 6,200 showed up. That number of projected attendees was clearly expected. The massive outdoor stage was constructed for that reason. At this rally, the results diverged widely from the planner's expectations.
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On a related topic, I am especially interested in the COVID-19 aspect of the rally. On that Saturday night, over 6,000 people disregarded the CDC guidance to avoid large crowds. With most not wearing masks, they moved indoors, took stadium seats next to each other or stood shoulder-to-shoulder on the arena floor, stayed there far longer than the 15 minutes the CDC uses to define a "close contact," and frequently shouted, chanted and/or cheered. All were temperature-checked before entering the event. I presume none (or only a tiny few) were sick or displayed COVID-19 symptoms. I also presume all were aware of the CDC mask and large-crowd guidance. They knowingly accepted and took the risks COVID-19 is said to present. Indeed, each attendee signed a waiver to that effect.
The COVID-19 incubation period is 5-6 days, and up to 14 in some cases. It is my sincere hope that a week or two will elapse, and it will be shown that this large-group, unmasked event produced little or no virus spread. As far as I know, no large-scale indoor event like this has been held since COVID-19 fears took root in the U.S. While not intended as such, this Trump rally will serve as a meaningful test of the relevancy of the CDC guidance and the spread of the virus itself.
As a business owner who serves the public, I would be thrilled to see the virus not spread via the Trump rally. That development would help reduce the irrational fears of the virus many have developed. I do not discount the virus by any means. COVID-19 is real and it presents a lethal threat to many. However, some fear-based reactions to it seem over the top to me. The business climate would improve if those irrational fears were laid to rest.