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Worn Out Manager

Worn Out Manager

Veteran Expediter
Owner/Operator
US Air Force
jujubeans said:
If!
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JuJu, it's always when, never if. The question is will it burst or slowly deflate. Remember, the Dow is a mythical figure that represents the confidence level of a room full of rich men that are betting on the future. So, give Trump credit for this economy because he raised the confidence of a bunch of wealthy men.

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Turtle

Turtle

Administrator
Staff member
Retired Expediter
Yeah, no. That's not how it works. If the US economy was weak, or the global economy was weak, then the stock market at these levels would be considered a bubble. But that's not the case.

There will probably be a 10 or even 20 correction by the end of 2018, but that kind of a correction is already expected. All bets are off if North Korea acts the wild child, tho.

But there has never been a stock market crash that didn't recover.
 
Worn Out Manager

Worn Out Manager

Veteran Expediter
Owner/Operator
US Air Force
As usual, you are technical. I use the term bubble as a visual aid. The market, like the Yankees, will have strong years followed by a trip to the basement and a return to prominence.

I don't like the tax plan on the surface but I, like JuJu, haven't read it yet either. It should pass, but if it doesn't we will see a rapid drop in the Dow that will be more serious than a simple correction.

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Turtle

Turtle

Administrator
Staff member
Retired Expediter
Worn Out Manager said:
As usual, you are technical. I use the term bubble as a visual aid. The market, like the Yankees, will have strong years followed by a trip to the basement and a return to prominence.
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Ah, locker room talk. :D

Worn Out Manager said:
I don't like the tax plan on the surface but I, like JuJu, haven't read it yet either. It should pass, but if it doesn't we will see a rapid drop in the Dow that will be more serious than a simple correction.
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It won't be anything major, and it won't last very long. The US and global economy is the primary reason for where the stock market is right now. It's somewhere between 10 and 20 percent of the tax bill that's baked into the market now, so at most 10 or 20 percent might correct, but even that won't last more than a few weeks if the economy doesn't tank along with it.

A bigger concern will be when the bill passes and is signed into law and the stock market goes nuts. That will most definitely be a bubble that will burst sooner rather than later.
 
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Worn Out Manager

Worn Out Manager

Veteran Expediter
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US Air Force
I don't have a clue what he may know, BUT, my guess is he has something that Muller needed which is why he is going down on lesser of possible charges AND the deal would keep his son out of it. A dad would fall on a sword for his son.

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Worn Out Manager

Worn Out Manager

Veteran Expediter
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US Air Force
So, Tax Bill passes, now what? It goes to a joint committee where they TRY to merge the two versions, then do both Chambers have to vote again? Does the house usually bow to the Senate?

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Moot

Moot

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Worn Out Manager said:
The market, like the Yankees, will have strong years followed by a trip to the basement and a return to prominence.
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The Yankees were supposed to be in a rebuilding year this season. They made it to the ALCS and lost to the eventual World Series winner.
 
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