The Trump Card...

ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
The campaign finance laws prohibit the solicitation or acceptance of cash or "a thing of value" from a foreign national, but that does not apply to information, regardless of how valuable that information might be.

Based on my reading of previous FEC rulings, I believe otherwise. But, as before when such things come up, I don't want to argue the points here. I'm content to let the experts do their thing and wait for the courts or administrative bodies make their rulings. You may be right about this, and I may be too. Time will tell.

It is wise to keep an open mind in such things. For example, a while back, some Trump supporters said the investigations should cease because there is no evidence of wrongdoing. Well, now there is evidence publicly available from an incontrovertible source. People who said to let the investigations continue -- so we can know for sure, one way or another, if there is evidence or not -- now seem to have advocated the wiser course.

I was one of those people and my position remains the same. Let the investigations fairly proceed, let the facts be fairly discovered and fully disclosed, let the disputes be fairly adjudicated in a proper forum (if it comes to that), and let the chips fall where they may.
 
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Turtle

Administrator
Staff member
Retired Expediter
Well, yes and no. It depends. Those who believe Trump wasn't legitimately elected and want to give the presidency to Hillary by default judgment, because Trump and/or his campaign colluded with Russia to violate some still unstated law, this illumination of the bigger picture is all the irrefutable proof they need to call for impeachment and, hopefully, significant prison time and a few executions for treason. They have taken the conspiracy theorist's position that merely asking questions is all that is needed to deem someone guilty.

So the question is, what is the picture even supposed to be? What we want it to be?

Yesterday I had a meeting with someone from China, where I paid them money in exchange for drugs. That can be whatever someone wants it to be, especially if a month or six from now I deny ever having had a meeting with someone from China. I will deny it because, in my mind, the meeting was of no real importance to anyone. Then, long after I've forgotten about the meeting they produce video evidence of me clearly meeting with someone from China, and clearly shows me handing them money and then them handing me a small bag of drugs. Now I'm flailing about, stuttering and stammering to explain away my previous blatant lie. I'm screwed.

So I finally fess up and admit the meeting happened.

It happened yesterday, in fact. I had a prescription filled at Walmart and the pharmacist who performed the transaction and the consultation is from China.

But it's irrelevant that I was able to explain the meeting, because I was clearly obfuscating and then lying about the meeting. This is no longer about an innocent prescription drug transaction at a pharmacy, it's about illumination of the bigger picture of what else I might be hiding. If I lied about something so inconsequential, what else is there to discover?

In short order there are reports of me having many other meetings with people from China. One at The Golden Dragon, another at The Great Wall, and I'm practically a regular at August Moon. And with every new report of a previously denied meeting with people from China, the picture becomes more and more illuminated. There's no question at this point that I have something going on with China. That's the only conclusion that any reasonable and sane person can reach.

They don't want to talk about the same exact kinds of meetings I had with people from Mexico, or Italy, or France, the Middle East or anywhere else. The only thing that matters is China, China, China! (with apologies to Jan Brady)

I'm just putting that out there, not to throw any new illuminate on any big picture, but rather to point out that perspective is at least as important as the illumination.
 
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Turtle

Administrator
Staff member
Retired Expediter
Based on my reading of previous FEC rulings, I believe otherwise.
I would be a little shocked to read an FEC ruling where a "thing of value" that cannot be converted into a campaign expenditure would violate federal campaign finance laws. Especially if that "thing of value" is the voluntary provision of information (speech). Opposition research and campaign ads by PACs will soon be a thing of the past if that's the case.

... some Trump supporters said the investigations should cease because there is no evidence of wrongdoing. Well, now there is evidence publicly available from an incontrovertible source.
Evidence of what? Is "wrongdoing" in the opinion of some now the equivalent of "illegal"? Assumptions, questions and accusations do not equal illegal, or even wrongdoing.
 

ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
I would be a little shocked to read an FEC ruling where a "thing of value" that cannot be converted into a campaign expenditure would violate federal campaign finance laws. Especially if that "thing of value" is the voluntary provision of information (speech). Opposition research and campaign ads by PACs will soon be a thing of the past if that's the case.

Opposition research work product, whether hired by the campaign or donated to the campaign by the entity in question, is an item of value. If purchased, the campaign treasurer would list it on the campaign finance report as a purchased service. If donated, the treasurer would list it as a contribution in kind.

Expenses associated with campaign ads by PACs would not likely be listed on the candidate's committee report, especially if the campaign and the friendly PAC made efforts to maintain an arms-length distance to avoid the perception that they were working together. The expenses would be listed on the PAC's report.

That said, the issue in the Trump Jr. case is not about whether something of value was provided by a foreign national. It is about whether Trump, Jr. and others knowingly solicited from a foreign national something thought to be of value. Trump Jr.'s email chain clearly indicates they did.

Evidence of what?

  • Evidence that the campaign had improper contact with a Russian national.
  • Evidence that federal election law was violated.
  • Evidence that previous statements and denials made by campaign officials are false.
  • Evidence that Jared Kushner's "I forgot" explanation for failing to report Russian contacts on his security clearance form is not credible.
  • Evidence that it may be wise to question future statements made by Trump Jr. Manifort and Kushner, instead of taking them at face value.
  • Evidence that there is good reason for the investigations to continue.
 
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Turtle

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Retired Expediter
Soooo, by "evidence" you mean opportunity to further state opinion and accusation. Got it.

The entire meeting was initiated (solicited) by a British publicist (and former tabloid journalist), which as a generalized class, ranks even below a CNN journalist on the list of least credible people. So, you can choose to view his comments in the email conversation with the appropriate scrutiny and skepticism, or you can take his comments at face value as if he wrote them while under oath. And the Russian lawyer in the meeting has far closer ties to Fusion GPS then she does to any foreign government.
 

davekc

Senior Moderator
Staff member
Fleet Owner
At this point I don't see anything they can hang him with. The value thing is actually correct. What is the assigned value on something that no one knows the value?I
That is dead in the water. Having dirt on a political opponent isn't illegal.
Doesnt mean Trump Jr is all innocent on something, but this is New York Times entertainment.
They got nothing based on what has been shown so far.
 
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skyraider

Veteran Expediter
US Navy
The beat goes on, the beat goes on
Drums keep pounding a rhythm to the brain
La de da de de, la de da de da

Charleston was once the rage, uh huh
History has turned the page, uh huh
The mini skirts, the current thing, uh huh
Teenybopper is our newborn king, uh huh

And the beat goes on, the beat goes on
Drums keep pounding a rhythm to the brain
La de da de de, la de da de da

The grocery store's the super mart, uh huh
Little girls still break their hearts, uh huh
And men still keep on marching off to war
Electrically they keep a baseball score

And the beat goes on, the beat goes on
Drums keep pounding a rhythm to the brain
La de da de de, la de da de da

Grandmas sit in chairs and reminisce
Boys keep chasing girls to get a kiss
The cars keep going faster all the time
Bums still cry, "Hey buddy, have you got a dime?"

And the beat goes on, the beat goes on
Drums keep pounding a rhythm to the brain
La de da de de, la de da de da

And the beat goes on, yes, the beat goes on
And the beat goes on, and the beat goes on
The beat goes on, and the beat goes on
 
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Moot

Veteran Expediter
Owner/Operator
The significance lies not in the severity of the violation but in the way it illuminates the bigger picture.
The bigger picture being Donald Trump is not the media's President nor almost half of this country's citizen's (legal and illegal) President?
 
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ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
The significance lies not in the severity of the violation but in the way it illuminates the bigger picture.
The bigger picture being Donald Trump is not the media's President nor almost half of this country's citizen's (legal and illegal) President?

The bigger picture I had in mind when I said "bigger picture" was the landscape as the investigators view it. I'm not talking about Trump and/or his supporters, or the media or the big public picture. My comment was prompted by something one of the talking heads on one of the cable networks said (I do not remember which one).

The speaker was a former investigator. He talked about the investigative process. He talked about how a detective or investigator will follow leads and rule people and facts in or out as the evidence dictates. Over time a set of facts emerge and the case is developed. Or, insufficient facts emerge and the case is dropped because there is insufficient evidence to support a charge.

The speaker also talked about how a fact uncovered later in the investigation can illuminate facts previously discovered. That is the illumination I spoke of above.

Here's an analogy. Innocent Joe, a mechanic, quit his job at NSB Auto six months ago to work at a different shop. Recently, a burglary happened at NSB and a bunch of tools were stolen. A witness observed a black pickup parked behind NSB the night of the burglary. Workers at NSB told investigators that Innocent Joe had a thing for nice tools. He loved it when the Snap-On truck pulled in. He always asked to see the new tools other mechanics purchased. They noted that only the best tools were stolen that night.

Investigators took that as reason to question Innocent Joe who, as it turned out, does not own and never has owned a black pickup. He told investigators he and his wife were out of town the night of the burglary, visiting his cousin and his wife. In a separate conversation Joe's wife said the same thing. When investigators called, the cousin confirmed Joe's alibi. Yes indeed, the cousin says. Joe and his wife were with us that night. They cooked out in the back yard, marked the birthday of one of the nephews with cake at the meal, watched a game and stayed overnight. Satisfied, the investigators rule Joe out as a suspect.

Two weeks later the witness happens to see that same black pickup at Walmart. He remembers it because of the distinctive custom wheels that caught his eye at both sightings. He gets the license number and notifies investigators. When investigators run the tag, it turns out that Joe's cousin owns the truck.

That fact, discovered later in the investigation, now illuminates the facts previously gained and raises additional possibilities that will now be further investigated.

Before, Joe was innocent and ruled out. Now it may be the case that Joe, his wife and cousin are all in on it and lied to investigators. The new fact raises the possibility that there was not one burglar but two. It may be that this case will grow from a simple burglary to one of burglary, conspiracy, transporting stolen goods across state lines and lying to investigators.

That's what I mean by illumination. A fact discovered later in an investigation casts previous facts in a new light.

The email chain released by Trump Jr. introduces a new set of facts that serve as a new source of light. That light will illuminate previous facts and previous explanations in a new way.

For example. It is a fact that Kushner did not disclose his meeting with the Russian attorney on his security clearance form. His initial explanation was he forgot about that meeting. When others made the meeting publicly known, Kushner modified the form to include the meeting.

Now that Junior's email chain is also a known fact, investigators will be less willing to believe that Kushner simply forgot about the meeting. It is now known this was a gathering of three top campaign officials, planned in advance and confirmed in writing with a stated purpose and guest that a reasonable person would consider memorable if not exceptionally so.

While the results of the meeting were inconsequential (according to Junior), the expectations about the meeting were high enough to plan the meeting in advance and bring three top people off everything else in the white-hot heat of a campaign and into the room to meet the Russian attorney. "I forgot" is not as believable as it was before the email chain became known.

With this and many other aspects of what is being investigated, the email chain casts things in a new light; a light that will likely increase investigator skepticism, open new paths and prompt them to keep digging.
 
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Turtle

Administrator
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Retired Expediter
While the results of the meeting were inconsequential (according to Junior), the expectations about the meeting were high enough to plan the meeting in advance and bring three top people off everything else in the white-hot heat of a campaign and into the room to meet the Russian attorney. "I forgot" is not as believable as it was before the email chain became known.
By the same token, since the meeting turned out to be a big nothing burger not even remotely close to living up to its hype, and one of the top people in the campaign abandoned the meeting after a few minutes and another top official in the campaign spent the entire meeting absorbed into his phone with texting and emails, it could be an utterly forgettable event.

In any case, your analogy above is a good one, except for one major flaw. It correctly illustrates how newly uncovered facts can shed previously known facts in a different light, and thus prompt new suspicions and questions which would be investigated, with Junior those suspicions and questions aren't being investigated but rather are taken by the Left, the Press, and you (as evidenced by your bullet pointed list above) as factual conclusions in and of themselves. The questions of "maybe" and "possibly" become "yes, absolutely, without question."
 
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ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
I care little about what the media concludes. They are doing their own thing for their own reasons with the information. While we all rely on news reports to learn of developments, my conclusions and those of the editors are not the same. I do the best I can to separate fact from opinion and I'm content to let time pass for more facts to emerge.

For example, it is a fact that Kushner did not disclose the meeting on the form. What does that mean? It could mean any number of things depending on any number of things. The reason I like it that investigations are proceeding out of the public eye is that professionals are on the job, not to jazz up the next news cycle, and not to support the (often rapidly formed) opinions of pro-Trump or anti-Trump citizens, but to separate fact from fiction and find out what is really going on.
 

Turtle

Administrator
Staff member
Retired Expediter
Just the same, the first two items on your bullet list are drawn conclusions. "Improper contact" is merely a conclusion based on a question. And "violation of election laws" is a highly opinionated conclusion based on wishful thinking.
 

ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
Just the same, the first two items on your bullet list are drawn conclusions. "Improper contact" is merely a conclusion based on a question. And "violation of election laws" is a highly opinionated conclusion based on wishful thinking.

We each have our own way of looking at it.

I have served as treasurer for two state-level political committees and one federal political committee and have been a paid consultant in others. The committee treasurer is the one who signs and submits the campaign finance report and is liable for its accuracy. I have had personal discussions with present and former members of the Federal Elections Commission (at forums in Washington D.C. and Maryland where we were invited to speak). I have attended board meetings of the agency in Minnesota that enforces that state's election laws. I have watched violators appear to present their cases and have seen fines imposed. While spending hours doing research in that agency's office, I watched officials of various political committees come and go and listened (overheard as I sat working at a nearby table) while their questions were fielded at the counter and they tried to talk the agency out of fining them. In preparing for certain political battles, I have spent countless hours reading the election laws and various rulings issued by the agencies that enforce election law. I used to subscribe to and read with great interest newsletters dedicated to that topic.

While I have gotten a bit rusty with the passage of time, I am not unfamiliar with election laws and the duties campaigns and campaign officials have. Based on this experience and knowledge, and based on the facts provided directly by Trump Jr., I believe the meeting in question was improper and a violation occurred. You call it wishful thinking. I call it an informed conclusion.
 
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Turtle

Administrator
Staff member
Retired Expediter
You call it wishful thinking. I call it an informed conclusion.
I absolutely respect your experience in this. Nevertheless, free speech, voluntarily proffered, that cannot be converted into a campaign expenditure, cannot violate campaign finance laws (without also violating the Constitution).
 

ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
You call it wishful thinking. I call it an informed conclusion.
I absolutely respect your experience in this. Nevertheless, free speech, voluntarily proffered, that cannot be converted into a campaign expenditure, cannot violate campaign finance laws (without also violating the Constitution).

This is not a speech issue. The violation occurred because Trump Jr et. al. solicited something of value from a foreign national. This is not about what was said. It's about what was sought.

That said, the violation itself is a minor administrative matter that, at the very worst, would be penalized by the FCC imposing a modest fine.

The significance of the email chain is its source (Trump Jr. himself, not fake news) and the eagerness it shows on the part of the campaign to obtain what was then believed to be information from the Russian government. The email chain documents certain behaviors and interests by certain players that may be part of a larger pattern that may be of interest to investigators.

While the press will go nuts over this until the next thing to go nuts over surfaces, the significance is the impact the email chain may have behind the scenes in the investigating entities. As I said above, it illuminates old facts with a new light.
 
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Worn Out Manager

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US Air Force
Not to mention he released the "pre-meeting" emails. Are we to think that after the meeting there were no follow up emails to ANYONE that would have no bearing? I agree with Phil that this is another"less then earthshaking" event that will soon be eclipsed. But, it is another example of, when faced with bad publicity, the Trump team denies, reverses, mis-directs, mis-states (by means of presenting "un-truths") then attacks by using the now famous Fake News claim.

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Worn Out Manager

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US Air Force
And, now we can add the "everybody would do it" defense. Take me back to my childhood and the old "all the other kids do it" and I'm sure y'all know my Mom's response to it

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muttly

Veteran Expediter
Retired Expediter
Not to mention he released the "pre-meeting" emails. Are we to think that after the meeting there were no follow up emails to ANYONE that would have no bearing? I agree with Phil that this is another"less then earthshaking" event that will soon be eclipsed. But, it is another example of, when faced with bad publicity, the Trump team denies, reverses, mis-directs, mis-states (by means of presenting "un-truths") then attacks by using the now famous Fake News claim.

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Reverses,mis-directs, mid-states. That's what Fake News has done with this Russian thing.
 

Worn Out Manager

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US Air Force
I'm sorry if you rally believe this is all Fake News. You do realize that, while the press is many time slanted and partisan, while the press may be to eager to be first with "breaking news", and that they sometimes get it wrong, this whole "Russia Thing" is NOT fake news. IMHO "Fake News" is a "Fake Term" to support our Presidents alternate reality. The "Russia Thing" is real and it WILL bring him down either next year or next election, but it won't be because of Russia, like Nixon, it will be the cover up that does him in.

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