When I said earlier was going to avoid this forum until July 1 to focus on our business, someone added "or until something develops that compels Phil to speak" (or words to that effect). He was correct. There has been a development of great significance regarding my prediction that the Republicans who have the power to do so will impeach Donald Trump.
The development is a law suit intended by the District of Columbia and Maryland that alleges “unprecedented constitutional violations” by Trump.
Full story here. "The constitutional question D.C. and Maryland will put before a federal judge is whether Trump’s business ownership amount to violations of parts of the Constitution known as the foreign and domestic emoluments clauses."
While there has been much talk about Trump and the emoluments clauses, and while at least one other suit has been initiated on this question, this case is significant because the plaintiffs (D.C. and the State of MD) have standing like no others. For the first time, the case has being formally made in an arena of consequence by plaintiffs with unquestionable standing.
From the article: "If a federal judge allows the case to proceed, Racine and Frosh say, one of the first steps will be to demand through the discovery process copies of Trump’s personal tax returns to gauge the extent of his foreign business dealings. That fight would most likely end up before the Supreme Court, the two said, with Trump’s attorneys having to defend why the returns should remain private.
“'This case is, at its core, about the right of Marylanders, residents of the District of Columbia and all Americans to have honest government,' Frosh said. To fully know the extent of Trump’s constitutional violations 'we’ll need to see his financial records, his taxes that he has refused to release.'”
An emoluments case like this will not lead directly to impeachment. If a federal judge allows it to proceed, information coming out of the suit would likely accelerate movement in that direction.
I'm not interested in deep conversations here about what the Court should or should not decide, or is likely or unlikely to do. Constitutional experts on both sides and judges will do that. My only point today is that there has been a development of substance that I believe is likely to add fuel to the impeachment fire.
Granted, among the Republicans who have the power to impeach Trump, that fuel has to date been little more than a barely glowing ember if it existed at all. This suit, now formally made, is likely to change that as the court fight proceeds, Trump tweets and Republican consciousness shifts.
Also supporting the impeachment scenario is the fact that despite Trump's claim of total exhortation, the multiple investigations into the Trump campaign and administration (and likely Trump himself) show no sign of letting up. If anything, these investigations are proceeding with increased energy and focus.
By their nature, these investigations proceed slowly and we will have to wait many months to see their final reports. The thing to note today is the increasing momentum the investigations exhibit.