I think it's warmed up, and probably just as much as they say it has. But I also think they really have no idea what causes it, not anything they can point their finger to, anyway. I like all the records. The other day one place a a record high for that date, June 25th. Wow. Golly. 138 years earlier on June 24th it was 5 degrees hotter, but on that glorious 25th day of June, it's never been hotter. The record, and not that it's done it before, before man started messin' with the atmosphere, got the headlines.
The Solar System is weaving in and out of a massive spiral arm of the Milky Way Galaxy, which necessarily affects the conditions within the Solar System, which necessarily affects weather patterns here on Earth. And they are arrogant enough, some are stupid enough, to say the warming and climate change in general is all human-induced. For most people it's nothing more than an unsubstantiated illusory corollary, the phenomenon of seeing the relationship one expects to see in a set of data, even when no such relationship exists. They see this data, and immediately make a connection to cause and effect, even though no cause and effect have been established. It's also why stereotypes form and endure, and it's the bread and butter of junk science.