Here is something you should read 1st.
How Many Jobs Depend on the Big Three?
By Catherine Rampell
“The auto industry supports one of every 10 jobs in the United States,” Gov. Jennifer M. Granholm of Michigan wrote in a CNN.com plea for a bailout of Detroit’s Big Three. The day before, she told “The Early Show” on CBS that “this industry supports one in 10 jobs in the country,” adding, “If this industry is allowed to fail, there will be a ripple effect throughout the nation.” Many others have used the same statistic.
That’s a scary figure. It’s also somewhat misleading.
The statistic seems to indicate that 10 percent of American jobs – a total of roughly 14 million jobs, if you’re just looking at the Bureau of Labor Statistics non-farm payroll report – could evaporate if the Detroit Three are allowed to fail. But that’s not actually what the statistic refers to.
The widely cited 1-in-10-jobs figure appears to come from a 2003 study conducted by the Center for Automotive Research on the “economic contributions of the motor vehicle to the U.S. economy, to a multitude of U.S. industries in retail, manufacturing and service sectors, and to individual Americans.” (C.A.R. is a nonprofit research organization with industry, labor, academic and government ties; this particular study was commissioned by the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers, an industry group).
The study concludes that “new vehicle production, sales, and other jobs related to the use of automobiles are responsible for 1 out of every 10 jobs in the U.S economy.” The term “responsible for” is interpreted quite broadly, and covers jobs in steel, glass and electronics (the so-called “upstream” jobs) as well as those in taxi-driving, travel and advertising companies (”downstream” jobs), among others.
The broadness of the term “responsible for” aside, the study has minimal relevance to the question of how many jobs are at risk if the Detroit Three go bankrupt, for two reasons:
1) The study uses data from 1998 to 2001, and the industry has changed significantly since then. Employment in the motor vehicles and parts manufacturing sector has fallen, for example.
2) Much more importantly, it is an industrywide study: The auto-related jobs covered in the report include more than those dependent on the Detroit Three; they are related to cars sold by any manufacturer, domestic or international, in the American market.
In other words, the loss of a single American car company wouldn’t necessarily dissolve all those jobs that the entire auto industry “supports.” The failure of General Motors, for example, wouldn’t eliminate the entire car-wash industry. Car-washing jobs are primarily dependent on Americans’ continued demand for automobiles — whether they’re from Detroit or Nagoya — and not the operations of any one automobile company. If a foreign company could swoop in to fill that demand with minimal disruption, then, theoretically, car-wash employees would keep their jobs.
That’s not to say that there would be no ripple effects whatsoever from a G.M., Chrysler and/or Ford bankruptcy. In fact, C.A.R. has done a more recent — and much more relevant — study on just this question.
The study, which came out on Election Day, estimates “the economic impact — in terms of jobs, compensation and tax revenues — of a major contraction involving one or more of the Detroit Three automakers,” under two separate scenarios. In both cases, there would be major short-term shocks to employment; depending on which scenario you use, a contraction of the Detroit Three would result in direct and indirect job losses of 2.5 million to 3 million in 2009. (This figure was also cited by Governor Granholm.)
That statistic is nowhere close to 1 in 10 American jobs, but it’s nothing to sneeze at.
It still doesn’t tell the whole story, though. After all, if Americans still buy cars, how permanent would those auto-related job losses be? Some argue that most of these jobs would be recovered, because foreign-owned auto companies would expand their plants in the United States to fill the void left by the Big Three. Others predict that foreign companies would instead expand their production overseas because of cheaper labor costs and because the suppliers that now serve both domestically — and foreign-owned American plants would be pulled under along with the Big Three.
The C.A.R. study, for its part, extrapolates to 2011 only, but it finds that a significant portion of those lost jobs (40 or 59 percent, depending on the scenario) would be recovered by that time