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There is an obscure candidate for president named John Anthony Castro. He has filed at least 27 lawsuits across the country challenging Trump's eligibility on 14th Amendment grounds. While some courts have taken various actions with these Castro suits, it seems to me (and the courts) these...

Next step: Appeal to higher court.

I'm not going to argue the particulars of these cases with you. What you and I think about it is irrelevant. I'm interested in seeing these cases make their way to the Supreme Court. That is the the most appropriate forum. That is where people more qualified than us will argue their cases and...

Since you're open to groundless speculation, how about this? The justices on the Supreme Court decide they are tired of Trump. As justices and as a court, they have the judicial branch of government to protect. They hit their limit with Trump's abuse of the process and his vicious attacks of...

The people bringing these cases are doing so for one reason. Get the question before the US Supreme Court where the case will be argued by constitutional experts and the real ruling will be made. The briefs there presented and the ruling there made is what matters. The court cases leading to the...

Those who maintain such hopes are stacking one hope upon another. Maybe it will turn out that way. We shall see.

Also correct. When we went through the real estate crash and "Great Recession" 2007-2009, it was bad. Expediters who were in the business will remember the trauma well. When the COVID panic prompted governments to shut down entire countries and states, that to was really bad. But when we have a...

Yes it is, and I will score it as such in my next report (previous report here). One thing to note: given Trump's single-digit win rate (8.67% wins, 91.33% losses), it is more accurate to say "a rare court win for Trump" instead of "Another court win for Trump." Also note that this is a...

That is correct. Coming sometime, maybe sometime soon, and maybe sometime when it is not widely expected, the US dollar will crash. We have seen many times currencies crash in other countries. The US is not immune from the economic forces that lead to such crashes, but the US is clearly on track...

Santos was elected the same way a handful of other New York freshmen House Republicans were elected. New York Democrats stepped into it big time with their nuttso cash-bail laws. Criminals who should have been locked up after being arrested were set free because of some truly wrong-headed...

When the Santos seat is vacated, it will be filled by special election. As of June 2022, 40% of the district's active voters were registered Democrats, 28% were registered Republicans, and 32% were either registered with some other party or unaffiliated. [Source]

Santos is Done and May be Expelled "House Ethics Committee Chairman Michael Guest, a Mississippi Republican, will make a motion to expel Santos as soon as Friday..." "Rep. Andrew Garbarino, a New York Republican and committee member who has also held off on expulsion up until this point, also...

I continue to believe Johnson is a right-wing extremist. A couple of initial moves as House Speaker does not a non-extremist make. Can a tiger change its stripes? No. Can a politician compromise his beliefs? Absolutely. But compromising one's right-wing extremist beliefs does not mean he has...

I have never expected the highly complex GA RICO case to conclude in court before the 2024 election. This thing will take years to complete. And no, a president cannot pardon someone charged with a state offense. The president's pardon power is limited to federal offenses. You can share all the...

If it is true, as Bannon says, the "War Room people" are "mad beyond belief," that is meaningless if MAGA Mike and his House Republican supporters have decided to write off the extremists, embrace the help of the the Democrats, and actually govern. To do that, Johnson will have to compromise...

Assert away, my friend. You do seem to enjoy it.

I used the term because you used it above. You spoke of a few hardliners. I was less precise and yield to your objection. Johnson is a right-wing extremist. I agree it is best for the rule to go. I'll agree about the personal animosity part too, but that is not the end of the story. The...

No president has ever tried to pardon himself. If Trump got elected (unlikely) and pardoned himself, it would be challenged in the Supreme Court. You can assert that Trump has the power to pardon himself, but a whole lot of people would disagree. Your assertion does not the law make.

Kennedy Could Win As with all polls more than a year out from Election Day, the recent polls showing Kennedy's surprising strength are meaningless. But I mention them here because there is something to keep our eyes on. I have been personally involved in two third-party races (Perot '92 and...

More than a few "hardliners" voted against "MAGA Mike." Ninety three House Republicans voted against the measure, with 127 voting for it. The "hardliners" are not happy. How long will it be before they turn on "MAGA Mike," a speaker who cannot govern without cooperating with the Democrats? When...