Kennedy Could Win
As with all polls more than a year out from Election Day, the recent polls showing Kennedy's surprising strength are meaningless. But I mention them here because there is something to keep our eyes on.
I have been personally involved in two third-party races (Perot '92 and MN Gov. Ventura '98) where people came to believe the third-party candidate could win. Ventura did win. Perot could have won had the idiot not withdrawn from the race. In July, 92, he was polling ahead of his Republican and Democratic opponents and the nation was electrified by his candidacy.
As the November, 2024 election approaches, watch Kennedy's strength. If the third-party or independent candidate's poll numbers top 20% as Election Day draws near, people start believing that candidate has a shot. They believe he may actually win. At that point, voters seriously reconsider their default voting behaviors. Voters don't like the idea of "wasting their vote" on a third-party candidate who can't win. But if it appears he might win, the "wasted vote syndrome" disappears, and the third-party candidate becomes a legitimate contender.
The magic number is 20%. If Kennedy is at that level or higher in September, 2024, he would win the presidential election. He would present an opportunity to say to hell with both major parties, we need something new.
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As with all polls more than a year out from Election Day, the recent polls showing Kennedy's surprising strength are meaningless. But I mention them here because there is something to keep our eyes on.
I have been personally involved in two third-party races (Perot '92 and MN Gov. Ventura '98) where people came to believe the third-party candidate could win. Ventura did win. Perot could have won had the idiot not withdrawn from the race. In July, 92, he was polling ahead of his Republican and Democratic opponents and the nation was electrified by his candidacy.
As the November, 2024 election approaches, watch Kennedy's strength. If the third-party or independent candidate's poll numbers top 20% as Election Day draws near, people start believing that candidate has a shot. They believe he may actually win. At that point, voters seriously reconsider their default voting behaviors. Voters don't like the idea of "wasting their vote" on a third-party candidate who can't win. But if it appears he might win, the "wasted vote syndrome" disappears, and the third-party candidate becomes a legitimate contender.
The magic number is 20%. If Kennedy is at that level or higher in September, 2024, he would win the presidential election. He would present an opportunity to say to hell with both major parties, we need something new.
Spoiler alert? Poll has RFK Jr. grabbing 22 percent against Biden and Trump
The former Democratic candidate also got the backing of a plurality of independents in the Quinnipiac University survey.
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