Risky Business

Commercial Trucking Insurance Trends to Watch in 2025

DAT reports that the Great Freight Recession is on its way OUT...what does that mean for Expediters?

The entire trucking for hire industry has experienced seismic shifts over the past few years.
From the spikes in demand following the 2020 economic stimulus to the subsequent Great Freight Recession with plummeting rates and oversupply.

But as I wrote in my December 2023 blog, all storms pass.
As 2025 approaches, the tides are finally turning.

According to recent data from DAT Freight & Analytics, ACT Research, and Cass Information Systems, the freight recession is on its way out, and our industry is finally entering a new phase of growth and stabilization.

DAT Freight & Analytics:

“Reports confirm the freight recession is winding down and rates will improve steadily by early 2025. For owner-operators, this is the time to prepare for profitable operations,”  

What does this mean for Owner Operators and Small Motor Carriers hauling Expedited Freight?

It means opportunity—but only for those who stay informed and adapt quickly to change.

Here’s what you need to know about Commercial Trucking for Hire industry trends for 2025.
 
1. Freight Recession Recovery Boosts Rates

The entire freight recession, characterized by an oversupply of trucks and a shortage of freight, is finally showing signs of easing.

DAT Freight & Analytics recently reported some of the strongest year-over-year comparisons since 2022.

Similarly, ACT Research identified one of only two months in the past two years where rates showed growth, while Cass Information Systems noted the first increase in its rates index in four months.

These promising trends point to a long-awaited recovery in the trucking industry’s economic cycle.

Monthly reports from DAT, ACT, and Cass all suggest that a sustained rate upturn could be on the horizon, potentially arriving by early 2025.

Spot truckload rates are already climbing and are expected to reach double-digit percentage increases by late 2025.

Thousands of trucking companies were shuttered during the downturn, particularly those unable to sustain operations through the low-price environment.

So for those of you who remain driving, Congratulations!

Less competition paired with increasing freight volumes now mark a significant shift for you.

With ongoing tariff policies favoring locally sourced products, there’s renewed optimism for businesses focused on domestic freight.

Amid this recovery, Small Motor Carriers hauling domestically produced goods common for Expediters could see even more benefits.

2. The "Trump Bump" and Domestic Freight Growth

There’s a term circulating among trucking industry insiders—the “Trump Bump,” reminiscent of the “Reagan Bump” in the 1980s.

This phenomenon refers to the economic shifts influenced by policies promoting domestic production, which could increase demand for freight movement.

As domestic manufacturing ramps up, it creates a trickle-down effect in the trucking industry.

Products made in the U.S. need to move, and small trucking operations are often the most agile driving pros to handle this demand.

Expediters are the master agile driving pros:)

For Independent Owner Operators and Small Motor Carriers, this growth represents not just increased freight opportunities.

It represents a chance to specialize in specific product markets.

Trump and Vance have exhibited support for small truckers, as Trucking Industry Groups React Hopefully to Trump Win. 

Fun Fact: JD Vance is an investor in FreightWaves SONAR through the Rise of the Rest Fund.

3. Game-Changing New Entrance in the Commercial Trucking Insurance Market

Another exciting development for Owner Operators and small Motor Carriers in 2025 is the entrance of a new insurance option.

Notably, GEICO has stepped into the commercial trucking insurance space, offering lower and more realistic premiums for small trucking businesses.

This increased competition is a game-changer. For years commercial insurance rates have been a heavy burden for Owner Operators and small Motor Carriers alike.

With GEICO disrupting the market, our Expediting niche can now find more affordable rates.

CIS/GEICO Quote or (330) 864-1511

 Cargo Van & Sprinter Insurance

4. Long-Term Impacts of 2020 Economic Policies or How Did It Happen?

The rapid changes in the entire trucking industry since 2020 stemmed largely from federal economic policies during the COVID-19 recession.

Direct cash payments to consumers and robust PPP loans flooded the economy, leading to record-breaking freight demand.

This period sparked what some call the “Gold Rush of 2020” for the trucking industry, with many owner-operators purchasing additional trucks and trailers to meet the soaring demand.

But what followed was a painful correction.

Freight rates dropped, and many trucking businesses that entered the market during the boom struggled to adapt.

The result?

More than 88,000 Motor Carriers went out of business in 2023.

Data on 2024 to come...

5. Trends in Commercial Trucking Insurance Coverage

With a new era on the horizon for our industry, here are key commercial trucking insurance trends to watch in 2025—trends that could help you save money and avoid unnecessary hassles:

• Lower Premiums from a New Provider Spark Competition

With GEICO entering the market to challenge the limited insurance options, we’re beginning to see lower premiums being offered across the board.

Take the time, even midterm - to shop your trucking insurance now.

• Understand how much your credit affects your insurance premiums

Your Insurance Credit Score matters most.

Learn how various factors influence your expenses and discover practical strategies in our guide: How to Reduce Your Commercial Truck Insurance Premiums.

• Insurance Providers Continue to Watch for Chameleon Carriers

New Motor Carriers with Rapid Growth in number of units are flagged and frequently non renewed for potential instabilities that create higher propensity for losses.

Insurance lingo refers to this as Misrepresentation of Risk.

• Stability Matters

Insurance underwriting algorithms prioritize patterns of stability.

Policyholders who frequently adjust their coverage, drivers, or units may face surcharges due to the increased risk associated with these changes.

You can see these up charges both midterm and at renewals.

• Understand How Your Physical Damage Deductibles Affect your Premium

The high cost of newer trucks means even a minor collision, like hitting a deer, can lead to expensive and complicated repairs.

Call your Trucking Insurance Pro today, and she can advise how choosing a higher deductible can lower your premium immediately.

• Insurance Providers Value Safety Investments in Drivers and Equipment

Your truck insurance premium is heavily influenced by factors like stability, driving records, and SAFER Scores.

These are all parts of your business you can take charge of to help reduce the cost of your trucking insurance.

Preparing for a Profitable 2025

For Owner Operators and small Motor Carriers, 2025 could finally be the end of a very long storm.

Freight rates are bouncing back, domestic freight opportunities are growing, and more affordable insurance options are popping up.

It’s shaping up to be a year full of possibilities!

Want to make the most of 2025?

Learn everything you can about trucking at CIS Commercial Truck Insurance Blog for Owner Operators.

Then cut your overhead costs today.

That’s where we come in.

At CIS, we help Owner Operators and Small Fleets find the best coverage at the best rates.

So you can focus on what you do best—hauling freight and growing your business.

Reach out to one of our expert Trucking Insurance Brokers.

She’ll help you find the best options and has your back for customer service and claims.

Right now, GEICO has some of the lowest premiums.

Next year, Progressive or another provider might have the better deal.

That’s why we shop around for you at every renewal—so you don’t have to!

We’re a small, family-owned agency specializing in the Expedited Freight niche since 2002.

Check out our CIS 5 Star Google Reviews.

Then give us a call to chat about the exciting changes in our country, we'd love to talk with you!

We are Commercial Insurance Solutions Inc. - We Make Your Expediting Insurance Easy!

CIS (330) 864-1511

15 Minutes Could Save You BIG $$$ on Your Expediting Insurance!