Windows Mobile to overtake iOS and Android?

AMonger · Jun 13, 2011

Hard to believe...

Windows Phone 7 to
overtake Apple iOS: Report
Jun 13, 2011, 12.14pm
IST Agencies
SAN
FRANCISCO:
Look out
Apple,
Microsoft
has got the
iPhone's number. Research
firm IDC predicted that
Microsoft’s Windows Phone 7
will outpace sales of Apple's
iPhone by 2015.
Both will seriously lag
Google's Android operating
system, which will enjoy an
almost 44-per cent market
share by the middle of the
decade. But thanks to its
adoption by the world's
largest phone maker Nokia,
Windows Phone 7 will leap
ahead of Apple iPhone to
enjoy a 20.3-per-cent market
share, compared to the 16.9
per cent of the iPhone.
That's a huge jump from
Windows Phone 7's current
market share of just 3.8 per
cent, but the study found
that the Microsoft operating
system will enjoy a
compound annual growth
rate of 82.3 per cent,
compared to the iPhone's
annual growth of 17.9 per
cent and Android's 23.7-per-
cent rate.
“Windows Phone 7 will
benefit from Nokia's support,
scope, and breadth within
markets where Nokia has
historically had a strong
presence,” the report said.
It noted however that “until
Nokia begins introducing
Windows Phone-powered
smartphones in large volumes
in 2012, Windows Phone 7
will only capture a small
share of the market.”
Currently Android has 38.9
per cent of the global
smartphone market,
compared to Apple's 18.2 per
cent.
However, the smartphone
market will jump significantly
by 2015, according to the
study, which found that sales
will more than triple from
their 2010 levels of 305
million to 982 million in
2015. Smartphone sales in
2011 are predicted to be 472
million.

Turtle · Jun 13, 2011

Well, considering the article states that both Windows and iOS will "...seriously lag Google's Android operating system, which will enjoy an almost 44-per cent market share by the middle of the decade," I really don't see Windows Mobile overtaking Android.

The bigger problem is the source, IDC, who has Microsoft and Nokia as clients. While IDC is largely an unbiased research firm for many things, they are ultimately a marketing and research firm (they own and operate something like 450 Web sites as a part of IDG Corporation, in addition to owning publications like PC World, Macworld, Infoworld, Techworld) and they have a long track record of writing Microsot-friendly research papers and predictions. Two months ago they predicted the same sort of numbers, and now again. How many Nokia Windows phones have been sold so far? None. Nada. Not one.

The smartphone industry moves at light speed and four years is an eternity. Any projection beyond 2012 is suspect. Four years ago no one saw Apple’s iOS coming. Android didn’t exist, either. And IDC can peer into their crystal ball four years from now? In a nutshell, IDC is assuming that all Nokia users will stay loyal to the brand and become Windows Phone 7 users. They think the entire 20.9% Symbian market will march in lock-step to Windows. That's what their numbers predict. Windows Phone 7 may not appeal to all Symbian users. How do you assume that most Symbian users will go to Microsoft? Because Nokia says so? Yeah, right. Symbian users are likely to watch iOS, RIM’s QNX and Android too.

Nokia isn’t likely to hold smartphone share. Nokia won’t have a barrage of Windows Phone 7 phones in the market until 2012. Nokia is essentially taking a year off while other handset makers (Samsung, HTC, RIM, Apple, Motorola) keep pumping out smartphones. Nokia is a no-show in the U.S. and its possible that folks that leave Nokia in 2011 may not come back.

Also, IDC’s projection assumes flawless execution by both Nokia and Microsoft, neither of whom have a good track record in that regard. If Nokia’s timetables slip for Windows Phone 7 devices, it will have to close a larger market share gap by 2015. On the other side, Microsoft has to show it can quickly evolve Windows Phone 7. Neither partner can run in place, much less stumble.

The predictions are "perfect storm" kind of predictions. Well, really, not even that, as a perfect storm could actually happen.

Here's a pretty good take on all this...
IDC should stop swelling Steve Ballmer's head for things he hasn't done - International Business Times

asjssl · Jun 13, 2011

Last thing I want running my phone is Windows.....the phone will never work..

Posted with my Droid EO Forum App

aileron · Jun 13, 2011

I had a Windows phone before this Android. It worked surprisingly well. If it wasn't for the lack of a touch screen, I would have kept it for a lot longer. It was a Motorola Q9C. Battery life was good. I absolutely hate the battery life of my evo.

Posted with my Droid EO Forum App

scottm4211 · Jun 13, 2011

lol Nokia...

AMonger · Jun 13, 2011

The assumption I find ridiculous is that the entire smartphone industry is going to keep growing. I think the global economy is going to slow drastically and people are going to be more worried about a roof over their head and food in their bellies.

I'd love to be wrong. I don't think too many people will be concerned with gee-gaws in 5 years. Heck, maybe 3.