What's True for One is True for All
In the news this morning, about 10 Republican names are being mentioned as declared or potential candidates for the US House speaker election. One of them is Tom Emmer (R-MN). Trump is making it known that he does not want Emmer to be speaker. That's probably enough to doom Emmer's bid. With the Republican majority razor thin, it only takes a tiny handful of Republican House members to vote against Emmer and thereby deny him the speaker's seat. With numerous Trump loyalists in Congress, that tiny handful of opposing votes certainly exists.
So the question becomes, is there anyone in this group of 10 or so candidates who can win the entire Republican caucus over to become speaker? At present, the answer is no. The Republican caucus is factionalized and dug in. No Republican can win the speaker's seat on Republican votes alone. Democratic support will be required to fill that seat.
That means that if the Democrats decide they'll support a Republican, it will only take a tiny handful of Republican members to vote for that person to fill the seat. So we wait to see who that Republican nominee for speaker will be.
The Democrats are fond of saying they need only a handful of Republicans to cross over and vote for Democratic caucus leader Jefferies as speaker. That is extremely unlikely to happen. It would be impossible for any Republican to make the case to his Republican constituents back home that voting to elect a Democrat as speaker was the right thing to do when the Republicans were in the majority. And in the House, life would be unbearable among their colleagues.
A Republican considering such a thing would be better off switching parties before casting such a vote. If a tiny handful of Republicans decided to act in concert to switch parties, they could give the majority to Democrats and thereby return the House to Democratic control. Even though such Republicans could likely gain big benefits for themselves and their districts by switching parties, that move seems unlikely. The so-called Republican moderates in today's Republican caucus are far too right-wing for Democratic tastes. They'd be unlikely to survive a Democratic primary in 2024.
At some point, the pressure will become to great to resist. At some point, if Republicans cannot unite (and they can't), they will have to nominate a Republican candidate who the Democrats will agree to support, and they'll have to agree to pay the price the Democrats demand for playing along.
A government shutdown is looming. If the Republicans can't get their act together soon, it will happen; and the Republicans will have to answer to the voters for that, as well as the three-week leadership-meltdown clown show they have presented.