Kennedy
I honestly don't know what to make of Kennedy's decision to suspend his campaign and throw his support to Trump. I'm reading pollsters with a red bias say this is good for Trump, and pollsters with a blue bias saying it is not going to help Trump much, if at all. But even they do not know. This just happened and no polls have yet been done to show the actual impact.
Additionally, Kennedy is not the only moving part in this election. Harris just completed a triumphant DNC national convention. A polling bounce traditionally follows such an event. But that polling has not yet been done either. There is anecdotal evidence that suggests independents were moved toward Harris by what they learned of her from the DNC convention.
I can see why MAGA and Trump are thrilled with the Kennedy news. They have not had much good news since Harris became the Democratic candidate. With the Harris movement building, it's been a struggle for Trump to be in the spotlight like before. And Harris, being younger, has successfully cast Trump as the aging, obsolete, relic candidate. This Kennedy development shifts the focus off the old-man Trump narrative, at least for a time.
Note that Kennedy is not Trump's running mate. I don't think we'll be hearing much about Kennedy a week or so from now.
I'm also mindful of Nikki Haley throwing her support to Trump. A good number of her supporters have come out for Harris. They supported Haley because they opposed Trump. They were unmoved by Haley's Trump endorsement.
Yes, a number of Kennedy supporters will now break for Trump, but not all. To know for sure how this develops, we'll simply have to wait for the new polling to come out. With Harris's expected convention bump and continuing momentum, and Kennedy's move, prior polls that included Kennedy are irrelevant now.
No one honestly knows how the Kennedy supporters will break, and in what direction, and in what numbers. We'll have to wait a week or two to find out. Support for Kennedy, already low, sharply declined when Harris appeared. If it turns out that a majority of Kennedy supporters break for Trump, does he have enough of them left to make a difference? Time will tell.
