The Trump Card...

ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
$3 Billion Windfall for Trump? Maybe, but Not Yet

Today, the day the merger was finally and officially approved, the stock is down 5% on the news (price @ 11:14 EST).

Edit for UPDATE: near the session close, the stock is down 10.02% on this supposedly "big news" day.
At the market close, the stock was down 13.81% on the day.
 
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ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
When the stock was first issued in Oct. 2021, it was issued at just under $10/share.

On the news hype of this initial public offering (IPO), the price skyrocketed to a high of $175.00. That spike was propelled by MAGA dupes who got excited over the chance to invest in the Trump name.

A month or so later, the stock bottomed at around $41, leaving many of the MAGA dupes with a major paper loss.
One of the dupes was Marjorie Taylor Greene.

"Greene, a Republican and Trump supporter with a history of conspiracy theories, bought shares of Digital World Acquisition Corp. on Friday when they were skyrocketing to breathtaking levels.

Days later, the Trump SPAC (Special Purpose Acquisition Company) plunged in value."
(Source)
 
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muttly

Veteran Expediter
Retired Expediter
You DO Understand This, Right?

If the Supreme Court agrees that Trump is immune from prosecution because he was president, current President Biden could order Trump killed and Biden would be immune from prosecution.
Not totally. He would have to be impeached by the House and then convicted by the Senate. Then he could be charged criminally.
 

muttly

Veteran Expediter
Retired Expediter
I was thinking Hillary. Often, when confronted with a difficult truth, MAGA folks like to change the subject to Hillary. They have whataboutism refined to a fine art, and they actually consider it a valid form of argument. It works in their echo chambers. It does not work in court or real life.
Nah, Hillary was never President. But if there is a whataboutism that pertains to the discussion, it would be Obama ordering a drone strike on U.S citizens without due process. Remind me of the court case with criminal charges that was filed against him on that one.
 

muttly

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muttly

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I’m old enough to remember when some doubted that Truth Social would even exist, that Trump would even post on his site :JC-hysterical: and that there would ever be a merger.
A billion dollars or so isn’t doing too bad considering the added competition from Musk’s X site.
 
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muttly

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Retired Expediter
Great filing by Trump’s team. I concur.
Can’t wait to hear what counter arguments the prosecution attempts to twist into a pretzel.
 
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ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
I’m old enough to remember when some doubted that Truth Social would even exist, that Trump would even post on his site :JC-hysterical: and that there would ever be a merger.
A billion dollars or so isn’t doing too bad considering the added competition from Musk’s X site.
There was a time when the signs pointed to exactly that; Truth Social would fail. In fact, back then, Trump was not posting to Truth Social. That was one of the signs. Since then, Trump started posting and Truth Social got past the technical issues that threatened to doom it. They did that by creating a relationship with and paying (and sometimes failing to pay) a third-party vendor; not by internally solving the problems the Truth Social techs who created the problems to begin with.

Now Truth Social functions but only as a massive money loser with declining usage.

The stock price is not anchored to a going concern. The stock that will become known by market symbol DJT is a meme stock with all the meme characteristics that implies. If this stock actually turns out to be worth any real money that Trump can spend or pledge or use as collateral, AG James will seize the portion of it that will cover the debt Trump owes to the people of New York. That would likely mean she would seize the shares and sell them to obtain the cash. A sale of that magnitude, and even a possible sale, would put downward pressure on the stock price.
 
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ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
Awaiting Monday

As I said above, Trump may surprise the TV talking heads who have been talking about the seizure of his assets this week. I think it is at least possible that Trump is lying about his inability to post cash or bond. It may be possible that he has found the cash he needs to post with the court and thereby forestall the seizure of his assets. Where that money might come from is anyone's guess. If the cash or bond is posted, the source of funds will become known when Trump reports to the court-appointed monitor, and the monitor reports that to the court.

Monday is the deadline. We'll learn then if cash or bond was posted. If not, AG James will start seizing half a billion dollars worth of Trump's assets and the true nature of his wealth (or the lack of it) will be publicly known.
 
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ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
Be careful what one asks for. Due to the opposite reaction from many it may have unintended results:
I happened to be watching when Luntz issued his serious warning. He was deadly serious when he did, and he did it with great feeling. He looked directly into the camera and spoke directly to AG James, telling her she would be making a huge political mistake if she makes a big show of seizing Trump's assets. He talked about how the polls jumped after each of Trump's indictments, and he predicted the same if James produces a big asset seizure show.

Here's the link to that video:
I developed a lot of respect for Luntz years ago. Back in 1992, when Ross Perot was running for president, and when I was a Perot supporter deeply involved in his campaign, Luntz was one of the few pollsters who demonstrated an accurate understanding of the voters who were turning away from the Democratic candidate (Clinton) and Republican Candidate (Bush, Sr.) to support Perot. My respect for Luntz continues today.

That said, I expect something Luntz does not. If Trump fails to post cash or bond, and if James starts seizing his assets, I believe that will be the beginning of an " emperor has no clothes" moment. The false mystique of Trump's wealth will fade, and with it the fascination some of his MAGA followers maintain with the man. When they find out he is not the wealthy and successful businessman he once got them to believe he was, the polls will shift in a way Luntz is not expecting.

In other words, when the strong man is not seen as strong any more, MAGA respect and voting support for him will fade. That won't happen with all MAGA supporters. Indeed, many will believe in Trump's magic to their dying day. But it will happen with enough of them to be a contributing factor in Trump's political demise.

We're already seeing signs of this. Trump has 200,000 fewer donors at this point in the presidential election cycle than he did the last time he was a presidential candidate. While the polls may be one type of indicator, what small donors are doing or not doing with their money is also an indicator.

Trump is losing small donors compared to last cycle. And the donors he retains are contributing less. His indictments and court appearances are no longer producing the fundraising boosts they once did. His most recent fundraising appeals in which he cries out about the asset seizure threat are less effective than his fundraising appeals used to be.

The emperor has no clothes.
 
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ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
Both Cannot be True

In this Truth Social post, Trump claims to have nearly $500 million in cash on hand.

The problem with that is, in court, his lawyers stated under oath the opposite. They said Trump does not have the cash and he cannot post cash or bond. Both statements cannot be true.

If it turns out that Trump has the cash and he posts it or posts a bond for that amount, AG James will be satisfied. When Trump loses his appeal, that money will be instantly and automatically transferred to the State of NY to pay the judgement. That saves James the trouble of seizing Trump's assets to satisfy the judgement.

If Trump has the cash and does not post it as part of his appeal, James will seize the cash and thereby satisfy the judgement.

The final possibility is both statements may be true. He did not have the $500 million as his lawyers said, when they said it. Then, instantly, he somehow has the $500 million. If so, where did the money come from? To whom is Trump not beholden? Who bought Trump for that price?

If Trump does not have the cash and is only blowing hot air in this post, it is a monumentally stupid thing to do. When you pay your attorneys to argue in court that you do not have the cash, and you state publicly that you do have the cash, it kinda undermines the case you are making to the judge, and it may even open Trump's attorney's to perjury charges.

Trump's attorney's are likely highly displeased with Trump's "I have the cash" post. And the post likely brought a smile to AG James's face.

1711187139265.jpeg
 
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Pilgrim

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Be careful what one asks for. Due to the opposite reaction from many it may have unintended results:
View attachment 23779View attachment 23780
Luntz is on to something with his analysis, and his conclusion is no doubt supported by analytics only he and a few other pollsters are privy to. Of course the CNN talking heads stare in disbelief and the Trump haters tune him out, but many independents and undecided voters will be pushed to the red side of the fence when they see the gestapo tactics being used by the NY AG to seize property under these circumstances. He correctly cites the numbers that support Trump's rise in the polls, and no amount of blind Trump hate and hope for his political demise will make the facts go away.
 
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coalminer

Veteran Expediter
Retired Expediter
Luntz is on to something with his analysis, and his conclusion is no doubt supported by analytics only he and a few other pollsters are privy to. Of course the CNN talking heads stare in disbelief and the Trump haters tune him out, but many independents and undecided voters will be pushed to the red side of the fence when they see the gestapo tactics being used by the NY AG to seize property under these circumstances. He correctly cites the numbers that support his rise in the polls, and no amount of blind Trump hate and hope for his political demise will make the facts go away.
So Trump and any business in the state of New York should be allowed to base their entire business on fraud?

The only thing that might tick me off about this whole situation is if she does not go after everyone else who does the same thing, she needs to send a message to business people everywhere, if you want to do business in New York, you WILL do it by the book.
 
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Pilgrim

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So Trump and any business in the state of New York should be allowed to base their entire business on fraud?

The only thing that might tick me off about this whole situation is if she does not go after everyone else who does the same thing, she needs to send a message to business people everywhere, if you want to do business in New York, you WILL do it by the book.
Prepare to be ticked off. That's not the way business is done in NYC.

"The lawsuit alleges that Doyle was given “fraudulently inflated valuations” of the townhouse, putting its market value at over $80 million. Cahill and the society’s current president-general, James Normile, “made representations to [Doyle] that the building had ‘air rights’ and could be built, or rebuilt, higher than its current height.

“In reality, there were no ‘air rights’ and the actual value is closer to $20 million. [The society] made a gross over-valuation” of the townhouse, which induced Doyle to make the $3 million loan...

Parlatore points out that the society inflated the value of its property to obtain a loan, just like Trump was accused of doing, but the difference was that Doyle could not conduct the sort of “sophisticated due diligence” that Deutsche Bank did. Therefore, unlike Trump’s lenders, Doyle didn’t know the true value of the townhouse.

An even more important difference is that Trump paid back every penny he owed, but the society never paid back Doyle."

 
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