The prosecution of the campaign finance violations in question has reached a pause point for the moment. Despite his earlier denials, there is no question that Trump had the extramarital affairs in question, that he sought to keep them quiet, that he was directly involved in the now well-documented efforts to keep them quiet; and that these activities are felonies because they were done for the purpose of influencing a federal election. The evidence (witness statements, paper trail, money trail, time line, etc.) is now publicly known. A court has found this activity to be criminal. Prosecutors and the Court have implicated Trump in these two felony crimes.
The Court's finding and the counter-arguement made by former FEC Chairman Bradley Smith in his piece "
Michael Cohen Plead Guilty to Something That's Not a Crime" nicely frame the present situation.
With the evidence now out in the open and the "crime" question being discussed at a high level, I'm content to sit back and watch for the next developments. I'm not a judge or a former FEC chairman. I have nothing to say that would better inform the debate. Both sides of the "is it a crime?" question are well represented by the judge who has spoken and the former chairman who is now speaking.
To truly settle the question of the criminality of Trump's deeds, Trump must be indicted and/or impeached so the matter can be argued by both sides in a proper legal arena and a proper finding can be made. Expecting that to happen, I'm done discussing the issue for now. It's being well discussed by others and I have nothing more to add.
It's expensive for me to put time into this forum because this activity -- enjoyable as it is -- does nothing to build our gym business. I popped up a few days ago to explain how two "hard fact" developments (midterm election results and Trump being implicated in two felonies) support my impeachment prediction. I'll return to do the same when the next "hard fact" developments occur.
As important as the question of Trump's criminality or non-criminality under campaign finance law seems at the moment, I expect this question to be a tiny footnote in the larger debate that is to come. Investigations into Trump and Trump World are being done by several entities and are proceeding on several fronts. I expect evidence to surface and findings to be made that are hugely consequential for the country. These will overshadow the campaign finance questions that are now in the headlines.
The investigations are are not going away. Prosecutor progress has strengthened prosecutor hands and weakened Trump's. Trump is in deep, deep trouble from which he cannot tweet his way out.
Calling it a witch hunt has not worked. Insulting the witnesses and prosecutors has not worked. Highlighting Hillary's shortcomings has not worked. Firing Comey and Jeff Sessions has not worked. Swapping out people on Trump's legal team has not worked. Delaying tactics have worked in that delays have been produced but those are delays only. Nothing has been halted any prosecutor or made any investigation go away. No "pardon your way out" strategy, or any other effective strategy, seems to be in play at the White House or Trump Tower.
Trump is on the defensive and the walls are closing in. While Trump supporters latch on to one point or another and speak loudly about it, the investigators and prosecutors from several entities continue their work.
