With all 2018 federal elections now certified (except NC Dist. 9) and with recent legal developments, additional facts have emerged that support my belief, previously stated in this forum, that the Republicans who have the power to do so will vote to impeach Trump.
1. In the election, the Republicans kept the Senate with a net gain of two seats. The Democrats took the House with a net gain of 40 seats.
2. With the House and its subpoena power soon to be in Democratic hands, all barriers to House investigatory and impeachment action have been removed. When the next class of Representatives is seated in a few weeks, the House can impeach Trump at will.
3. This assumes legitimate cause for impeachment exists. I believe it does and greater cause will be established as multiple investigations and lawsuits proceed.
4. As this happens and as the House committees move where blocking actions prevailed before, Trump’s legal exposure will increase and his political value to Senate Republicans will consequently decline.
5. A tipping point will be reached. Acting in their own self-interests, a sufficient number of Senate Republicans will rise to join Senate Democrats in impeaching Trump.
6. It is worth noting that while Trump has been able to delay or cloud various investigations and lawsuits so far, none of these have ceased. Indeed, witnesses are talking, convictions are being obtained, Trump associates are being sent to jail, evidence is being revealed and legal filings are referring to additional investigation work now underway.
7. Trump’s lawyers, court responses, rallies, interviews, tweets and Attorney General changes have proven ineffective in stopping the investigations and important lawsuits. Indeed, as various documents are filed, legal momentum against Trump is accelerating.
8. As the investigations and lawsuits produce more evidence and more rulings unfavorable to Trump (as I believe they will), the public response will compel enough Senate Republicans to conclude that Trump is indeed guilty of high crimes and misdemeanors, and the country will be better served by President Pence.
If you’ve read this far, I thank you for your consideration. Allow me to admit I made my impeachment prediction early in Trump’s first term, thinking (to myself) impeachment would happen before the 2018 midterm elections.
I noted how easily the Republicans who opposed Trump in 2016 came around to support him. I presumed they would just as easily flip to oppose him as Trump’s narcissism, contentious demeanor, conflicts of interest and crimes became better known. I was wrong about the speed at which this would happen but remain convinced that impeachment will happen.
As I said above, Trump has been ineffective in stopping the investigations and pertinent lawsuits. After January 3, the ONLY thing keeping him from being impeached is the opinions of 20 Republican senators. (47 D + 20 R = 67 votes; the two-thirds majority required for impeachment).
Once again, the Republicans who have the power to do so will vote to impeach Trump. As the investigations and lawsuits proceed, keep your eye on the Senate Republicans. Watch as the impeachment-favorable number grows to 20.
When that happens, if not before, the House will initiate impeachment action. Democratic political professionals may suggest it is better to keep a weakened Trump in office so a Democrat can win the White House in 2020. I think that argument will be lost on the grass roots. There was a huge turnout of anti-Trump voters in 2018. When the opportunity to impeach presents itself, they will be disinclined to buy into a nuanced political strategy. They will want instead to impeach Trump immediately and they will put intense pressure on their elected officials to so act.