The Trump Card...

Turtle

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But if someone is going to claim that they are leaking, then it is incumbent on them to provide proof ... or at least some evidence that supports the claim.
The multitude of media reporting using sources close to or familiar with the Mueller investigation is substantial evidence of leaking. That, or, if you choose to dismiss it as such, is just a snotload of unprecedented coincidences on the Plausomoter that require more explaining away.

My evidence - which is not 100% conclusive - is:

1. Pippydippy

2. The Russian indictments
You're right, it's not 100% conclusive. In fact, there's more evidence to indicate it's an attempt to use the exception to the rule to prove the rule. All penguins are black and white. Some TV shows are in black and white. Therefore some penguins are TV shows, or, some TV shows are penguins. Word of Pippydopulous and the Russian indictments didn't leak from the Mueller team, therefore the Mueller team has never leaked ever.

I would encourage all reading this to really study up on logical fallacies. Not read a Wiki page on it, but really learn them. Logical fallacies instantly undermine any argument and either make it a weaker argument or utterly destroy it outright. When you can recognize logical fallacies you are about to use, and chose to not use them, it forces you to make a stronger argument. Of course, just because an argument relies on a fallacy doesn't necessarily mean that the claim is inherently untrue, it just means the argument doesn't actually validate their premise. In other words, their argument sucks, but they aren't necessarily wrong. But their argument is an inherently weak one that opens itself up to attack, particularly by those who also favor logical fallacies to do so.

There are several standout logical fallacies that have seen frequent use recently in this thread. In many cases, in combination with each other.

One is the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy, where a Texas sharpshooter repeatedly fires his gun at a barn wall, then proceeds to paint a target around the cluster of bullet holes, as evidence of his skill. People do this when they cherry-pick certain data clusters or events based on their predetermined conclusion or to further an agenda. They do this instead of letting a full spectrum of evidence lead them to an objective logical conclusion.

Another is the Hasty Generalization Fallacy, where someone draws expansive conclusions based on inadequate or insufficient evidence (or cherry picked by others, see above). In other words, they jump to conclusions about the validity of a proposition with some, but not enough, evidence to back it up, and tend overlook or dismiss potential counterarguments.

And just the opposite of the Hasty Generalization Fallacy, we have the Slothful Induction Fallacy, where sufficient logical evidence strongly indicates a particular conclusion is likely true, but someone fails to acknowledge it, instead attributing the outcome to coincidence or something unrelated entirely (see resignations, demotions, firings, reassignments, et al.).

And another one is the Bandwagon Fallacy, which also comports nicely with the Confirmation Bias Fallacy, where believing that if a significant number of people (or worse, a significant number of the right people, Appeal to Authority Fallacy) believe something to be true, it must therefore be true. As Giordano Bruno, the 15th century Dominican friar, philosopher, mathematician, poet, and cosmological theorist, once wrote, "Truth does not change because it is, or is not, believed by a majority of the people."

While you may well find it interesting, Occam's Razor is not an irrefutable principle of logic.
I never claimed it is an irrefutable principle of logic. It's not a principle of logic at all, it's a principle of philosophy. It simply states that for any given set of explanations of an event occurring, it is most likely that the simplest one is the correct one.

The more assumptions you have to make, the more "what ifs" you have to introduce, the more plausible explanations that are entered into it, the more unlikely those explanations will be.

If something looks, quacks and walks like a duck, it's most likely a duck. Sure, it's possible, maybe even plausible that it's Gilbert Gottfried, or an extremely talented Pomeranian with a vocal coach and an unlimited costume budget, but the most likely explanation is.... duck.
 

Turtle

Administrator
Staff member
Retired Expediter
Quoted this particular post for no reason, so don't try to make it into something it's not. I've noticed that instead of sticking with the overall topic of this thread, The Trump Card, and talking about issues surrounding Trump and his policies and antics and his effect on the political landscape, you for some reason want to turn this into a thread that centers on "bash Trump/defend Trump" just to start arguments. That smacks of trolling, which is posting something argumentative solely to get a rise out of someone. That's not what we're doing here.
 

muttly

Veteran Expediter
Retired Expediter
No need to recharacterize my words.
Survey sez:

I found great synonyms for "reasonable" on the new Thesaurus.com!

People don't infer the plausible, they infer the most likely or the most probable. They theorize the plausible.
LOL ... ok ... if you say so ...

Of course, what people consider is the "most likely" or the "most probable" is probably a highly individualistic thing ... and majorly dependent on how they view things.

Some are even willing to fabricate sources, so we shouldn't dismiss that possibility.
Yup ... it's entirely possible ... and it does happen.

(see Sen. Ron Johnson's secret "whistleblower" Jon Rohnson ... )

And ain't none of the above any proof that someone on Mueller's team isn't doing some leaking, either directly or indirectly.
That is correct ... it isn't proof.

But if someone is going to claim that they are leaking, then it is incumbent on them to provide proof ... or at least some evidence that supports the claim.

My evidence - which is not 100% conclusive - is:

1. Pippydippy

2. The Russian indictments

No hints either were coming, complete bolts from the blue ... no leaks.

And there are certain aspects that they both lack/share, that seem to point to where "leaks" are likely coming from.

I find it interesting that when considering all of the various and sundry possible plausibilities, the Occam's Razor mostly likely possibility is, somehow, not one of them.
While you may well find it interesting, Occam's Razor is not an irrefutable principle of logic.



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Giving a couple instances of them not leaking doesn't prove they haven't leaked with other things. It just means they refrained from leaking for whatever reason with those two isolated examples.
It would be like claiming Comey doesn't leak because he didn't leak before announcing the reopening of the Clinton Email 'matter'. But he leaked to the NYTimes to initiate a SP investigation.
 

muttly

Veteran Expediter
Retired Expediter
Narrows it down considerably as to the source of the leak.
Leaving aside the fact that CNN's word on something is now suddenly gold - because it's convenient and suits the agenda - rather than "fake news", no it really doesn't.

But nice try ...
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Yeah, ok. One can try to razor away the example as just "fake news", but we know that the story was accurate in hindsight with regards to there being charges filed the following Monday. So yes it's CNN (and also NBC reported later)so the other parts of the story about sources and parties not being informed about the sealed charges should be shaved away as just "fake news" I guess.;)
 
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RLENT

Veteran Expediter
Giving a couple instances of them not leaking doesn't prove they haven't leaked with other things.
That's true - doesn't prove they haven't leaked - which I allowed for/implied in the very post you are now replying to ...

It just means they refrained from leaking for whatever reason with those two isolated examples.
NO ... it COULD mean that ... but doesn't necessarily mean that.

It would be like claiming Comey doesn't leak because he didn't leak before announcing the reopening of the Clinton Email 'matter'. But he leaked to the NYTimes to initiate a SP investigation.
Yeah ... I'll be curious to hear his explanation/rationalization for that ... if he ever gives one.

Wonder if it will be addressed at all in his new book that is due out around April ?






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RLENT

Veteran Expediter
Yeah, ok. One can try to razor away the example as just "fake news", but we know that the story was accurate in hindsight with regards to there being charges filed the following Monday.
Accuracy in one part of a story isn't proof of accuracy of the entirety.

So yes it's CNN (and also NBC reported later) so the other parts of the story about sources and parties not being informed about the sealed charges should be shaved away as just "fake news" I guess.
Well I don't necessarily think one should just "shave it away" as you put it ... but it does deserve to be looked at with a critical eye.

One question that might be asked is:

Quit bono ? (Who benefits?)

Which goes to possible motivations of a leaker ...


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skyraider

Veteran Expediter
US Navy
From the Book of James

Dust of your Bible,,it's time to read again..



The Wisdom from Above

13Who is wise and understanding among you? Let him show it by his good conduct, by deeds done in the humility that comes from wisdom. 14But if you have bitter jealousy and selfish ambition in your hearts, do not boast in it or deny the truth. 15Such wisdom does not come from above but is earthly, unspiritual, demonic. 16For where jealousy and selfish ambition exist, there will be disorder and every evil practice.

17But the wisdom from above is first of all pure, then peaceable, gentle, accommodating, full of mercy and good fruit, impartial, and sincere. 18Peacemakers who sow in peace reap the fruit of righteousness.
 

RLENT

Veteran Expediter
Quoted this particular post for no reason, so don't try to make it into something it's not.
Well you didn't have to go to all that trouble on my account ...

I've noticed that instead of sticking with the overall topic of this thread, The Trump Card, and talking about issues surrounding Trump and his policies and antics and his effect on the political landscape, you for some reason want to turn this into a thread that centers on "bash Trump/defend Trump" just to start arguments.
So debate (a synonym for "argument") is not allowed then ?

I thought we WERE having a discussion about Trump ... which certainly encompasses the issues surrounding Trump and his policies and antics ... and his effect on the political landscape.

Now, it is certainly true that I don't care for the guy, and have some pretty negative opinions of him ... but that really isn't much different than someone having a dislike of, and negative opinions about, the "Swamp", the "MSM", or any number of other things ... and repeatedly expressing those opinions in this thread is it ?

That smacks of trolling, which is posting something argumentative solely to get a rise out of someone. That's not what we're doing here.
Well, I can assure you that is not my sole motivation for what I post.

If you need further evidence of that, just have a look at my most recent reply to Dave.



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Turtle

Administrator
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Retired Expediter
So debate (a synonym for "argument") is not allowed then
I never even hinted at such a notion.

I thought we WERE having a discussion about Trump ... which certainly encompasses the issues surrounding Trump and his policies and antics ... and his effect on the political landscape.
We are, you're not. Look at how many of your posts (excepting the posts that consist solely of a link so someone else's opinions, of course) where you directly address the poster instead of or in addition to the post. That's unnecessarily confrontational and has nothing to do with Trump et al. Far too many replies that change the topic from Trump to "you."
And (repeated) posts that essentially say "Trump's going down!" isn't really discussing The Trump Card as much as it is troll baiting and wishful thinking.

Nothing wrong with debating to win or to convince, but when the tactics are heavy on the logic fallacies and/or are personal, it stops being a productive debate.

Now, it is certainly true that I don't care for the guy, and have some pretty negative opinions of him .
Yeah, no, we get that.

but that really isn't much different than someone having a dislike of, and negative opinions about, the "Swamp", the "MSM", or any number of other things ... and repeatedly expressing those opinions in this thread is it ?
It certainly can be. Just depends on how you express it. If you want to defend the MSM or the swamp, I'm sure there are plenty who would be interested in reading it. If you want to bash Trump in such a way that invites a response that leads to an unproductive back and forth (bash Trump /defend Trump), then a new thread is better suited for that kind of discussion.

, I can assure you that is not my sole motivation for what I post.
I don't think it's your sole motivation. But it's certainly a factor. The posts are self evident of that.

If you need further evidence of that, just have a look at my most recent reply to Dave.
As much as it is evidence that trolling isn't your sole motivation, it's also evidence that your posts are tailored to the poster as much they are to the post (trollable, not trollable).
 

RLENT

Veteran Expediter
Well, in that case, does anyone have any thoughts on Hope Hicks announcement this afternoon ?

Did her recent testimony to Congress play a role ?

Previous testimony to Mueller ?

Fallout from the Rob Porter incident ?

Has she flipped and turned State's evidence?

Something else ?


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muttly

Veteran Expediter
Retired Expediter
Well, in that case, does anyone have any thoughts on Hope Hicks announcement this afternoon ?

Did her recent testimony to Congress play a role ?

Previous testimony to Mueller ?

Fallout from the Rob Porter incident ?

Has she flipped and turned State's evidence?

Something else ?


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Reportedly had planned to leave for months now and not about yesterday's testimony.
 

RLENT

Veteran Expediter
Reportedly had planned to leave for months now and not about yesterday's testimony.

Yeah ... that's what Maggie Haberman of the NYT said the WH told her ... saw it posted on her Twitter feed earlier.

It's really good to know that it's not one of those "sudden unexpected retirements" we've been hearing about lately.

OTOH, Hope doesn't seem to be the only one over there who was affected by that whole "telling white lies while in service to POTUS" thing, so there is that.

Very puzzling indeed.
 

davekc

Senior Moderator
Staff member
Fleet Owner
Anything political has white lies attached to it regardless of party. May be some truth to the Hope Hicks retirement. I red somewhere a month ago that she was getting wore out with the heavy schedule. Didn't mean much at the time but I guess it did this week.
 

Turtle

Administrator
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Retired Expediter
On-call 24/7, hasn't had a weekend off in more than two years... I think this cigar is just a cigar, and at 29 years old she wants her life back in the private sector.
 

Turtle

Administrator
Staff member
Retired Expediter
Not entirely sure, but it seems like this could have had something to do it with it:

Trump reportedly berated Hicks for admitting to ‘white lies’
Seems like, could have, reportedly... The whole thing reads like a story in People magazine or The Tattler about all the backstabbing, catfighting, and behind the scenes drama on Keeping Up with the Kardashians. I'm sure he berated her while sitting in front of the TV on a case of Diet Coke while wearing his bathrobe eating two scoops of ice cream.

But maybe not ...
Probably not.

Might be good to think about the broader implications of that ... like what did he expect: she should lie to Congress in her testimony?
I think it might be a total waste of thinking time. But I could be wrong.
 

RLENT

Veteran Expediter
Anything political has white lies attached to it regardless of party. May be some truth to the Hope Hicks retirement. I red somewhere a month ago that she was getting wore out with the heavy schedule. Didn't mean much at the time but I guess it did this week.

I think that occurred after her interview with the Special Counsel didn't it ?


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ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
A while back, I predicted that the Republicans who have the power to do so will vote to impeach Trump. One of the preconditions for that to happen is the erosion of the Trump base. While there has always been minor crumbling around the edges, erosion now seems to be accelerating. Anecdotal evidence can be seen in comments made by Breitbart News readers, usually a fiercely Trump-loyal group.

Ten examples:

1. I've had it with Trump. He's off the deep end. Not the candidate I voted for.

2. Heck, Pence gets an A from the NRA on gun rights. Maybe if the Dems get a majority and impeach him, we can get a few GOP senators to go along, upon which Pence ends up in the White House. We could do much worse than Pence.

3. Are you really this much of a cultist? You can follow Trump into the liberal “utopia,” I’m going to continue sticking to my conservative values. Obviously not the same values the RINO-in-chief holds. Thanks to Trump we now have a third term of Obama. President Donald J. Clinton.

4. He needs to be impeached or primaried, this is absolutely insane! It’s political suicide for a Republican President. It’s like he doesn’t want to win re-election. After hearing this, I certainly don’t want him to either. He’s showing his true colors and all of them are different shades of blue. We were all betrayed, Ted Cruz should be president right now.

5. Obama holdovers still in positions of power, Obamacare was never repealed, proposing amnesty for illegal immigrants, no wall and he wants to take our guns away. Sounds a lot like Obama to me.

6. "de-energizing his own conservative base" Trump already did that by pushing for gun control.

7. He just needs to resign and let Pence take over.

8. Those 3 states he won that put him in with the electoral college were only carried by a very fragile 55,000 votes. They are now probably gone. Bad move. Bad move, bigly, Trump.

9. Bad week for Trump. First the Mexican President tells him once more that Mexico won't be paying for the wall. So there goes that promise. And now the betrayal on the 2nd Amendment. What's next? Hope Hicks abandoning ship and moving on?

10. He thinks he owns the base and they won't abandon him. Just talking about guns like he is will put his second term in significant jeopardy. He thinks he's invincible and it may be too late for him by the time he realizes he's only here because of his base.
 
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