The Future of Trucking is the Future of Jobs...

pearlpro

Expert Expediter
The Mississippians just disappeared. We don’t know why. In the early 13th century, their city — what we know as Cahokia Mounds — was more populous than London. We think it was, anyway. We really don’t know. We don’t even know what they called it. For that matter, we don’t know what they called themselves.
If our society collapses, future historians will have the benefit of old newspapers to peruse. Maybe they will have a chance to see the Wall Street Journal from last Wednesday.

Dennis Berman wrote a column about the future of truck-driving. Rather, the nonfuture of truck-driving. “Over the next two decades, the driving will slowly be taken on by the machines themselves,” he wrote.

He quoted Ted Scott, director of engineering and safety policy for the American Trucking Associations. Scott said driverless trucks were “close to inevitable.”

In fact, everybody he quoted agreed. Trucking company executives seemed enthused about a world with no more drivers. No more health care costs. No more overtime. No more employee problems.

The article was generally upbeat, but not entirely so. “Economic theory holds that such basic changes will, over time, improve standards of living by making us more productive and less wasteful. An idle truck with a sleeping driver is, after all, just a depreciating asset. But watching a half decade of lagging U.S. employment, it’s hard not to feel a swell of fear for those 5.7 million people, a last bastion of decent blue-collar pay.”

He was referring to the 5.7 million Americans who drive trucks for a living.

More people out of work. Mostly men. Breadwinners, we used to call them.

This is happening all around us, of course. All sorts of jobs are becoming obsolete. We’ve certainly seen it here at the buggy whip factory. Entire trades have been wiped out.

Sportswriter Dan O’Neill had a story in Saturday’s Post-Dispatch about the last Union Printers International Baseball League Tournament. It has been going on since 1908. Printers from a dozen cities competed. For the first 60 years of the tournament, only card-carrying union printers could play. As the number of printers dwindled, rules were relaxed. Sons of printers could play. Then nephews. Finally, eligibility rules were dropped altogether.

Even when jobs don’t become obsolete, companies are getting by with fewer workers. I was recently talking with a man in the vending-machine business. He told me times are tough. There are fewer and fewer people in the buildings, he said.

Everybody is downsizing.

Even industries that ought to be immune are not. We have an aging population. That ought to be great news for the health care industry. But what’s happening? BJC Healthcare announced last month that it was cutting 160 employees. For the first time, employees were being laid off. These employees included nurses. Nurses! As the Baby Boomers hit their sixties, hospitals are laying off nurses?

St. Anthony’s Medical Center laid off people in June, too.

One reason cited was reduced consumer spending. That makes sense. Unemployed people try to put off medical spending.

Brick-and-mortar stores are losing business to the Internet. Real estate people complain that consumers can go online and look at a property. Travel agents are fighting a losing battle against the Internet. The list of endangered jobs grows.

Politicians don’t seem to get it. The president was in Missouri and Illinois last week talking about the economy. He spoke to college students. He said we need to keep the interest rates low on school loans.

That would be good, but that’s not the big problem. The big problem is a lot of the kids will be unemployed after graduation. A college diploma used to be a ticket to the middle class. It was like an unwritten contract. That contract is no longer in force. Of course, it helps to have an education, but an education no longer guarantees much.

Think about the kids coming out of law school. Many of them are heavily in debt. There aren’t enough legal jobs for them.

What are they going to do? Drive a truck?

Meanwhile, a couple of pages inside from the story in the Wall Street Journal about the coming demise of the truck drivers, there was a photo of a new SUV from Bentley Motors. The vehicle is expected to sell for between $140,000 and $180,000.

If our society goes down, future historians will have a good idea what happened.

Bill McClellan is a columnist for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Read his columns here.
 

Moot

Veteran Expediter
Owner/Operator
Even when jobs don’t become obsolete, companies are getting by with fewer workers. I was recently talking with a man in the vending-machine business. He told me times are tough. There are fewer and fewer people in the buildings, he said.

Bill McClellan is a columnist for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.


I wonder if Mr. McClellan will be incorporating the above bit of irony into his stand-up routine?
 

ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
In January 2011, Expedite NOW featured a piece a on a similar topic: Imagine a Future without Trucks

Excerpt:

Every trucker knows that without trucks America stops. It’s not just a slogan. To those of us who drive the trucks and physically deliver the goods that keep America running, the notion of a future with no trucks is laughable, if not impossible to imagine.

But is it really?
 
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ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
The Dennis Berman Wall Street Journal article mentioned in pearlman's original post is a subscription only piece with the title, "Daddy, What Was a Truck Driver? Over the Next Two Decades the Machines Themselves Will Take Over the Driving."

I found a related article for free, published by Berman on LinkedIn under the title: "Forget the Google Car. The Future is Robotic Trucks."

The Columbia Journalism Review picked up the theme with this piece.

Excerpt:

What you can be sure of is that the very real economic gains (of robotic trucks) will be concentrated in the hands of a few. Based on recent history, Berman is entirely correct to be pessimistic about the future prospects of those 6 million drivers.

Futurist Stowe Boyd offered these views on the topic: "Driverless Trucks Are The Future, And They're In Use Today."

Excerpt:

Ubiquitous, autonomous trucks are “close to inevitable," says Ted Scott, director of engineering and safety policy for the American Trucking Associations. “We are going to have a driverless truck because there will be money in it," adds James Barrett, president of 105-rig Road Scholar Transport Inc. in Scranton, Pa.

2025? How about 2015? These guys are way off. The economic and social benefits are too high to hold this off another decade.
 
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Mailer

Veteran Expediter
Owner/Operator
It would keep you safe from a trucking
accident or injury and give you more time to hunt and fish.

.....until some hackers fed the virus in those machines, all heel break loose. Vote no for programmed machines and robots;)
 

layoutshooter

Veteran Expediter
Retired Expediter
It would keep you safe from a trucking accident or injury and give you more time to hunt and fish.

If only that were the case. It is not the plan. Control is the plan. People who depend on the government can be controlled. Turn in your guns or no welfare. Hunting is illegal now, if you hunt, no welfare. ETC.

Nope, the ability to enjoy you life, as in the Pursuit of Happiness, is no longer in the interest of the Federal Government.
 

ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
.....until some hackers fed the virus in those machines, all heel break loose. Vote no for programmed machines and robots;)

Hackers are everywhere, attacking online banking, medical devices, even military drones. Yet technology marches on. If you vote no for programmed machines, you will soon be doing it with an electronic device, maybe even online.

Technology is moving very fast, leaving many disrupted lives and ways of doing business in its wake. Electricity changed work to make night shifts possible. The birth control pill helped fuel feminism. Online information availability has laid waste to professions where people who had exclusive access to knowledge were paid by commission to provide knowledge-based services (realtors, insurance agents, stock brokers). Robots have replaced human welders on assembly lines.

The list goes on and truck drivers are destined to be added to it, sad to say. Diane and I are grateful to be among the dying breed. Before trucking as we know it goes away, we got to live and work on the road as only truckers can do. Trucking is by no means dead yet, but it will not be long before the trucking-adventure option we had is available no more.

I think cargo vans will be the first to go. The regulatory environment is less stringent for them. A robot van is less scary to the public than a robot big rig. Converting a Google car to a Google van is not as much of a stretch as it would be to convert and operate a big rig on the public roads.

Running a fleet of robot cargo vans may be the next great opportunity in expediting. From your sofa, you can dispatch and "drive" your vans at will ... without once worrying about your driver getting home or getting enough sleep to drive safe.

I'm thinking that to endear my robot van company and myself to the shipping and receiving departments that keep my equipment busy, I'll include a printer in the van that prints off gift certificates to local restaurants or a message that says, "Please call when the van is loaded and I'll send catered BBQ to you for lunch today." You can do lots of fun stuff like that when you don't have to pay a driver.
 
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layoutshooter

Veteran Expediter
Retired Expediter
Whole thing could be fun. Imagine the possibilities.


The government will control the programming. THEY and ONLY THEY will determine who can, or cannot, own these trucks. You can bet that there will be a "Union Only" requirement for loading and unloading.

This is not being done for individuals to excel.
 

davekc

Senior Moderator
Staff member
Fleet Owner
Probably true but I will be retired long before it is likely to happen.
 

ATeam

Senior Member
Retired Expediter
This is not being done for individuals to excel.

Where it is being done now (off road applications like mines where licensing is not an issue), union jobs are being eliminated and it is being done to save money and increase profits. Technology eliminated union jobs in the auto plants too when robots replaced human welders.

As with any disruption in the economy, new opportunities will be created. Fuel and service stations will be reinvented around the fact that the vans and trucks do not have drivers who need showers, food, coffee, chrome and a parking lot to pee in. In that transition, some individuals will excel and others will not.

In the shorter run, before such facilities are developed, people like you and me could invent companies that service the vans. The van comes to our door and gives us a ride to the fuel station or truck stop where we fuel it and wash the camera lenses and provide whatever incidental services need doing. The happy van then takes us back home where we wait for the next one. You might even open space in your back yard to park the vans when they are not in use.

Better still, people like you and me who know enough about the expedting business could raise some money to capitalize the creation of a fleet of these vans, run that business and thereby excel.

The writer above is right. The financial benefits of this will not go to the drivers. The drivers will be gone. The financial benefits will go to a limited few, so, if you want to excel in this field, it is time to start thinking about how to be one of those few.

NOTE: I don't know how any of this will play out. I'm just having fun daydreaming out loud about the possibilities.
 
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layoutshooter

Veteran Expediter
Retired Expediter
Well Phil,

You have a much better view of what may be coming down the pike than I do.

I see a country/world controlled by government regulations written solely to insure their power and wealth. I KNOW our government is trying it's darnedest to outlaw everything I enjoy. They will win some day, hopefully, latter than sooner.

I am just happy I am 62. I MIGHT just get to miss the horrors I believe are headed our way. At least I got to spend the majority of my life as I wanted, except for the work part.

In the mean time, I head out to Greene for Monday TVAL training/testing and MAYBE there will be enough time to rebrand the truck for the second time. Then back to work.
 

letzrockexpress

Veteran Expediter
If only that were the case. It is not the plan. Control is the plan. People who depend on the government can be controlled. Turn in your guns or no welfare. Hunting is illegal now, if you hunt, no welfare. ETC.

Nope, the ability to enjoy you life, as in the Pursuit of Happiness, is no longer in the interest of the Federal Government.

I am for liberty as it was meant to be and I understand what it will take to keep it.. Having said that there are people in society who need and want to be controlled. I'm for that too.....
 

layoutshooter

Veteran Expediter
Retired Expediter
I am for liberty as it was meant to be and I understand what it will take to keep it.. Having said that there are people in society who need and want to be controlled. I'm for that too.....

And who should control "those" people? The government? Who decides who "they" are? What criteria will be used to decide who "needs" to be controlled?

That is a VERY slippery slope you are willing to start down. I REALLY don't want to follow you down. I don't do steep slopes well at all.
 

letzrockexpress

Veteran Expediter
And who should control "those" people? The government? Who decides who "they" are? What criteria will be used to decide who "needs" to be controlled?

That is a VERY slippery slope you are willing to start down. I REALLY don't want to follow you down. I don't do steep slopes well at all.

All I'm saying is there is a sizable number of people who have no business making decisions about almost anything. These people will ultimately be controlled by somebody, most likely a government agency...
 

layoutshooter

Veteran Expediter
Retired Expediter
All I'm saying is there is a sizable number of people who have no business making decisions about almost anything. These people will ultimately be controlled by somebody, most likely a government agency...

Anyone who chooses to be controlled deserves EXACTLY what happens to them.

I want to know who decides who are the ones that "need controlled" are and what criteria they would use. THOSE are the people that scare me. The idea itself smacks of elitist thinking, which is always scary.
 

letzrockexpress

Veteran Expediter
Any who chooses to be controlled deserves EXACTLY what happens to them. I want to know who decides who are the ones that "need controlled" are and what criteria they would use. THOSE are the people that scare me. The idea itself smacks of elitist thinking.


Well I'm no elitist. Let's put it this way: It is growing increasingly harder to maintain individual liberty. My contention is that many individuals will not or cannot carry their own weight. When it becomes easier to succumb to the pressure rather than to fight it and remain soverign, many will take that route. They either don't value self reliance or they are weak minded enough to give up.
They deserve to be controlled IMHO.
 
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