The Future of Package Delivery (and Expediting?)
- Thread starter ATeam
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Deville
Not a Member
If I remember my History correctly, this is how SKYNET became self aware once it was given complete control over it's drones by it's human masters, which SKYNET used to wipe out the human race by triggering nuclear war. Of those who remained a special breed of drone was created to eradicate what was left of us & the puny resistance that sprung up in various pockets of the world vowing to take back the planet from the drones. The resulting drone created for this task was known as the Terminator.
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WanderngFool
Active Expediter
Change brings opportunity.
A job of the future that popped into my head awhile back is Truck Retriever. Driverless vehicles will have to have a failsafe that shuts them down when they get stupid due to a bad chip or shorted wire etc. Trucks will still need human controls for times like this. I'll bet they'll have a keypad on the driver's door so the retriever could gain entry and drive it to a repair shop.
With every game-changing development -- electricity, the automobile, the internet, etc. -- society adjusts. There are those who believe the development to be of the devil and others who believe it to be something that will elevate humanity to its highest potential. The development is seen as both a job killer and job creator, and both turn out to be true as the nature of work changes.
People adjust. It may take a generation for the adjustment to occur but it happens. When electricity was being introduced, the power line and utility pole was a new sight. Now the landscape is saturated with them and we are barely aware of them at all. For those of who remember life before the internet, there are cute stories to tell. For those who were born after the internet was well established, instant access to information is as common to them as the light switch is common to us. It exists in the background and is used without giving its existence a second thought.
Drones are a game changer. I don't think their impact will be as life-changing as electricity, the automobile and the internet have been, but changes will occur as drone use spreads. As far as their use being far into the future goes, I think not. Drones are becoming increasingly common right now. It is not technology that keeps them off our streets and out of the sky but the law. Where there is no law to prevent them, they show up.
The first heavy-lift helicopter drone recently went to work for the U.S. military in Afghanistan. At least one mining company is using drone technology on self-driving, massive off-road dump trucks. In rural areas, small drone aircraft (some remotely piloted by a human) are being used to survey farm fields and crop status. People are purchasing right now robot vacuum cleaners for use in their homes. And let's not forget autonomous pacemakers that people are willing to install inside their bodies.
How long will it be before small drones like those introduced by Amazon become as common in our local skies as utility poles are common on the ground? It will happen soon after the laws change to permit them.
As I said above, the laws will likely first change to allow large drones. FedEx founder and CEO Fred Smith is chomping at the bit to add drones to the FedEx cargo plane fleet. In 2015, rules will likely be issued that allow "unmanned aircraft systems." Those rules will allow cargo planes to be remotely piloted from the ground. While planes exist today that are fully autonomous and can fly themselves without human intervention, it till take longer for those to find their way into the sky. But in time, social acceptance of the idea will grow and the laws will change to permit them.
In our expedited freight transport world, self-driving cars and trucks will have the greater impact. That technology is already well-proven and it is only a matter of time before the laws change to allow them to be commonly and widely used on the road. Once that happens, self-driving cargo containers of various sizes will be next.
The ATA is beginning to think out loud about self-driving trucks and it may well turn out that they will admit that they are not a trucking association at all but a group that represents companies that transport cargo.
What will happen to truck drivers when self-driving vehicles take over?
Regarding Fred Smith and his eagerness to put drone cargo planes in the air, it is not unreasonable to think that he also envisions the day when FedEx has a fleet of self-driving trucks that can expedite freight dock-to-dock on demand.
Oh how sweet it will be when he does not have to listen to drivers complain about putting oversized logos on their trucks and having to incentivize owner-opeerators to do so. How wonderful it will be when that dispatch department in Green can be replaced by a single computer and rent will no longer have to be paid for that floor space.
More food for thought:
Public trust, not technology, is barrier to self-driving trucks
Amazon Drone Skeptics Lack Imagination
"Another issue is security. People seem to think that the roving bands of hillbillies that populate this country will find it absolutely irresistible to shoot these things out of the sky. And to be fair, that does sound really, really fun."
People adjust. It may take a generation for the adjustment to occur but it happens. When electricity was being introduced, the power line and utility pole was a new sight. Now the landscape is saturated with them and we are barely aware of them at all. For those of who remember life before the internet, there are cute stories to tell. For those who were born after the internet was well established, instant access to information is as common to them as the light switch is common to us. It exists in the background and is used without giving its existence a second thought.
Drones are a game changer. I don't think their impact will be as life-changing as electricity, the automobile and the internet have been, but changes will occur as drone use spreads. As far as their use being far into the future goes, I think not. Drones are becoming increasingly common right now. It is not technology that keeps them off our streets and out of the sky but the law. Where there is no law to prevent them, they show up.
The first heavy-lift helicopter drone recently went to work for the U.S. military in Afghanistan. At least one mining company is using drone technology on self-driving, massive off-road dump trucks. In rural areas, small drone aircraft (some remotely piloted by a human) are being used to survey farm fields and crop status. People are purchasing right now robot vacuum cleaners for use in their homes. And let's not forget autonomous pacemakers that people are willing to install inside their bodies.
How long will it be before small drones like those introduced by Amazon become as common in our local skies as utility poles are common on the ground? It will happen soon after the laws change to permit them.
As I said above, the laws will likely first change to allow large drones. FedEx founder and CEO Fred Smith is chomping at the bit to add drones to the FedEx cargo plane fleet. In 2015, rules will likely be issued that allow "unmanned aircraft systems." Those rules will allow cargo planes to be remotely piloted from the ground. While planes exist today that are fully autonomous and can fly themselves without human intervention, it till take longer for those to find their way into the sky. But in time, social acceptance of the idea will grow and the laws will change to permit them.
In our expedited freight transport world, self-driving cars and trucks will have the greater impact. That technology is already well-proven and it is only a matter of time before the laws change to allow them to be commonly and widely used on the road. Once that happens, self-driving cargo containers of various sizes will be next.
The ATA is beginning to think out loud about self-driving trucks and it may well turn out that they will admit that they are not a trucking association at all but a group that represents companies that transport cargo.
What will happen to truck drivers when self-driving vehicles take over?
Regarding Fred Smith and his eagerness to put drone cargo planes in the air, it is not unreasonable to think that he also envisions the day when FedEx has a fleet of self-driving trucks that can expedite freight dock-to-dock on demand.
Oh how sweet it will be when he does not have to listen to drivers complain about putting oversized logos on their trucks and having to incentivize owner-opeerators to do so. How wonderful it will be when that dispatch department in Green can be replaced by a single computer and rent will no longer have to be paid for that floor space.
More food for thought:
Public trust, not technology, is barrier to self-driving trucks
Amazon Drone Skeptics Lack Imagination
"Another issue is security. People seem to think that the roving bands of hillbillies that populate this country will find it absolutely irresistible to shoot these things out of the sky. And to be fair, that does sound really, really fun."
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EASYTRADER
Expert Expediter
In the US and Canada - "Transportation" is the largest employer. Drone driven trucks and delivery platforms will be the death nell of the North American middle class.
Think of it like this, same number of trucks, but NO drivers needed. In a free economy this wouldn't be such a big deal but the US isn't a free economy and hasn't been for years.
There will be no place for most of these people to go. Automation is replacing workers everywhere. That's why wages have been stagnet for 20 years.
Guess what, you will still have to pay propery tax even though your job was taken over by a drone.
Think of it like this, same number of trucks, but NO drivers needed. In a free economy this wouldn't be such a big deal but the US isn't a free economy and hasn't been for years.
There will be no place for most of these people to go. Automation is replacing workers everywhere. That's why wages have been stagnet for 20 years.
Guess what, you will still have to pay propery tax even though your job was taken over by a drone.
I think you are a few hundred years ahead of yourself on some of your ideas....I can see self driving trucks on the interstates like where Ohio has those assembly areas in the interchanges to put triples together....
and they've had remote control trains in the switching yards for years now...
EASYTRADER
Expert Expediter
Once the technolgy is proven, it is only a question of equipment replacement time. The first company to adopt is going to drive evrybody else out of business. By removing the driver you eliminate .50 cents a mile of overhead. Once it starts this is going to be the most rapid and destructive economic turnovers yet.
Its a myth that the US manurfacturing base is shrinking. What has been shrinking is "manurfacturing jobs". Jobs are NOT being shipped overseas, they are being lost to automation. Trucking has been mostly insulated from this but technology has caught up.
The future is either "highly skilled" or unemployed. The vast majority of the population is NOT capable of "highly skilled" worked its not a question of training but of "mental" capacity.
This is why Agenda 21 has been focusing on population reduction, once drones fully kick in most of us will not be needed. Look up "digital printers - metal".
I'm not afraid of technology, I don't care Id be just as happy living as a subsistance farmer on 40 acres somewhere, except that's illegal now. If you can't pay your property taxs it doesn't matter that you can feed yourself from your garden. Like I said in a "free" country it wouldn't matter, but there aren't any free countrys left.
Its a myth that the US manurfacturing base is shrinking. What has been shrinking is "manurfacturing jobs". Jobs are NOT being shipped overseas, they are being lost to automation. Trucking has been mostly insulated from this but technology has caught up.
The future is either "highly skilled" or unemployed. The vast majority of the population is NOT capable of "highly skilled" worked its not a question of training but of "mental" capacity.
This is why Agenda 21 has been focusing on population reduction, once drones fully kick in most of us will not be needed. Look up "digital printers - metal".
I'm not afraid of technology, I don't care Id be just as happy living as a subsistance farmer on 40 acres somewhere, except that's illegal now. If you can't pay your property taxs it doesn't matter that you can feed yourself from your garden. Like I said in a "free" country it wouldn't matter, but there aren't any free countrys left.
WanderngFool
Active Expediter
I agree 100%. It sounds terrible and I think it will be. I'll bet supermarket cashiers think self checkouts are terrible too. Computers are taking over faster than "the jobs of tomorrow" are being created.
Of course no one knows how any of this will play out but I expect there will be plenty of warnings that most people will ignore (we always do, like the housing bubble in the mid 2000s), and then one day we'll read that a big company just bought 100 driverless trucks. Try putting your truck up for sale the following day and see how it works out for ya.
Not only will they save on driver wages but also bennies, sleepers, apus. They can run the trucks 24/7 except for maintenance. At first they'll run for 50 or 60 cents/mile less but eventually they'll get it down to at least 80 is my guess.
and the problem with that is?.....who is going to make these drones....who is going to program them and or repair them?.....guess truck driving won't be the #1 job much longer...have your grandkids stay in school and get the appropriate education to deal with the future...
The lawyers are gonna love this. I can't help imagining what's going to happen when driverless vehicles get involved in preventable accidents-- and inevitably it WILL happen. Can you even begin to imagine what the settlement will look like?? There won't be a near-penniless driver to go after, so the "deep pockets" companies will have to bear the full brunt of this-- with considerably less sympathy from juries made up of people who once had jobs.
It's called "The law of unintended consequences", and you can bet your mortgage that this one WILL bite companies in the posterior sooner rather than later.
It's called "The law of unintended consequences", and you can bet your mortgage that this one WILL bite companies in the posterior sooner rather than later.
FAA- You have to file a flight plan. Unsure how long it will take to approve said flight plan.
I do not think it will fly. At least in the south any way. Way to many shotguns in every house.
" hey Billy Ray, hold my beer and lets see what gifts we have."
I do not think it will fly. At least in the south any way. Way to many shotguns in every house.
" hey Billy Ray, hold my beer and lets see what gifts we have."
There was a mention that this might have been a hoax by Amazon in support of Cyber Monday sales....tho the tech is there whether practical or workable....????
So far, the only time a Google car has been in an accident of any kind was one time when the human driver was in control. Yes, we can speculate that a robot truck will one day be in an accident and it may even be ruled as preventable. But human truck drivers are in preventable accidents every day and the serious wrecks lead to big settlements. The number of such accidents will be significantly reduced, if not virtually eliminated, when robot driven trucks dominate the industry and are common on the roads.
And if one does happen, the lawyers for the insurance companies will deny, delay and defend, just as they do now. Then, as now, insurance companies will make the payouts, not the trucking companies. With fewer accidents, insurance rates will decline. With no flesh and bone bodies driving the trucks, the number of accident related injuries will decline, bringing rates down further.
With no human being in the trucks, worker compensation and unemployment insurance costs will drop to zero. Motor carriers will be insuring their equipment, not their drivers, because the drivers will be gone.
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I have no doubt the tech is there. The problem is, so are the liability lawyers. This is a "gimme" as far as they're concerned.
I have a couple of radio-controlled boats, so the concept of radio control is one I readily understand. I can even grasp the concept of GPS directed, pre-programmed vehicles (both air and land vehicles) that can go from point A to point B. The problem comes in when you have to deal with all of the variables that won't and the constants that aren't that life in this world throws at us every day. Sooner or later a robot won't be able to deal with that, someone will get hurt or killed, and the lawyers will buy bigger yachts in the Caribbean on the proceeds of the suits that will be filed.
I have a couple of radio-controlled boats, so the concept of radio control is one I readily understand. I can even grasp the concept of GPS directed, pre-programmed vehicles (both air and land vehicles) that can go from point A to point B. The problem comes in when you have to deal with all of the variables that won't and the constants that aren't that life in this world throws at us every day. Sooner or later a robot won't be able to deal with that, someone will get hurt or killed, and the lawyers will buy bigger yachts in the Caribbean on the proceeds of the suits that will be filed.
The jury pool is going to be filled with former truck drivers.....
I used to pick up at the Toronto Star printing plant....mostly robotics....that newspaper is not touched till the carrier lifts the bundles....stacked, counted out, strapped and palletized even a layer of cardboard between the layers and then stretch wrapped and robot takes it to the programmed dock....only a human operator loads it unto truck...
Perhaps, but in most cases, the cases are settled long before they get to a jury trial.
Diane and I recently toured the factory in which the gym equipment we will purchase is built. All welding there is done by machine. They have people working there who they call welders and who went to school for welding. Their job is to maintain the machines.