You are 100% correct, the failure creates the shortage....good point. I dont see it changing in the near future, especialy when carriers like Werner are debt free and have excellent operating margins.
You are correct, I doubt that it will change either. My guess is that the carriers who do this know very well what they are doing and profit from it more than most understand. But, my point still stands. There is no driver shortage...at this time. There is however a shortage of carriers worth driving for.
When I went through driving school, there was about 40 students. All but myself and 1 or 2 others were "sponsored" by a carrier. Most didn't even know what carrier would be sponsoring them until the first day of class when "the contracts" were handed out. They all signed up, barely even read them. What they were signing was a $5,000 loan to be repaid by them to the carrier. The only way not to repay the loan was to drive for that carrier (at a reduced pay rate) for 18 months. After a couple of days of socializing and getting to know everyone and the truth about what they were getting into dawned on them, some of them wanted out. They asked the instructor what they needed to do to drop out. His reply was "read your contract, you signed it! You can leave anytime you want. That $5,000 loan will follow you home".
I took the same classes, drove the same trucks, got the same license for $1,350 cash...paid by me. You tell me, who was making money off those other people? I honestly don't think they want those drivers to stay in the truck. They want them to basicly be a cheap second logbook for the trainer. They want to get as many cheap miles out of them as possible before they leave. They want them to leave before they get their own truck and start expecting more money. Why? So they can send them home with that $5,000 bill and get another one in the seat to do the same thing over again.
Those adds in the newspaper are not there because there is a driver shortage. They are there because there is a profit in turnover. That's my opinion.
Obviously, some companies need good drivers and value them once they get them. But those are not the companies crying about driver shortages.