The Defining Issue of 2024

[Pilgrim]

Simply put, the OH Issue 1 vote yesterday showed a significant majority of the state voters wanted their state's constitution left as is. It has worked fine for decades, so "if it ain't broke, don't fix it."

It also showed the SCOTUS decision on Roe v Wade is having its intended effect, which was NOT to take away women's abortion rights, but to allow those rights to be defined at the state level. Voters are engaging in that process, and it will take time to finalize.

Lastly, abortion may be a hot-button issue for liberals, but it's pretty far down on the list of important issues for most Americans, behind inflation, health care, jobs and the climate.

Most important voter issues by party U.S. 2023 | Statista

According to a survey from June 2023, the most important issue among Republican voters in the United States was inflation and prices, with 22 percent ranking it as their primary political concern.

www.statista.com

 

[muttly]

These outside groups want to spend a lot of money targeting college kids who are always itching for a liberal cause. The advertising can snag them with simple catchy phrases, just need not include the facts about late term and partial birth abortions, which many oppose.

 

[coalminer]

If people can amend the state constitution with a 50% vote now, and you want to raise the threshold to 60%, you make it harder for people to do what they could before. By definition that takes away people's rights.

If legal voting age is 18 and you change it to 21, that takes away people's rights.

If 2,000 signatures are required to qualify an independent candidate to get on the ballot and you change that to 10,000, that takes away people's rights.

If a C grade average is required to enter a state college and you change that to B, that takes away people's rights.

Making it harder for people to change the constitution does not add power to the people, it shifts the power away from the people and increases the power legislators have. The citizen-initiated constitutional amendment is an important check on the power of the legislature. If you believe the people should retain the power they have now to check a legislature that is out of step with the people, you vote for Issue 1.

And in a nutshell that is the GOP playbook, try to disqualify as many people who may vote against their agenda.

 

[ATeam]

Simply put, the OH Issue 1 vote yesterday showed a significant majority of the state voters wanted their state's constitution left as is. It has worked fine for decades, so "if it ain't broke, don't fix it."

For some voters, yes. That was their primary reason for voting "No." For many others, as reported by the voters themselves, Issue 1 was seen as a proxy vote on abortion and preserving abortion rights was their reason for coming out to vote.

It also showed the SCOTUS decision on Roe v Wade is having its intended effect, which was NOT to take away women's abortion rights, but to allow those rights to be defined at the state level. Voters are engaging in that process, and it will take time to finalize.

With the majority of SCOTUS justices being staunchly pro-life, I tend to believe these activist judges had every intention of taking away women's abortion rights. Proving another person's intent is difficult to do. We can only assert what we think here. You think they did not intend to take abortion rights away, I think they did.

Lastly, abortion may be a hot-button issue for liberals, but it's pretty far down on the list of important issues for most Americans, behind inflation, health care, jobs and the climate.

I think not. If they has special elections for the issues you mention, turnout would be nowhere near that it is when abortion rights are on the ballot. What people say on a survey is one thing. Watching them actually turn out in droves at the polls is another.

 

[ATeam]

And in a nutshell that is the GOP playbook, try to disqualify as many people who may vote against their agenda.

Bingo!

 

[muttly]

These elections are held when a lot of people are on vacation and may not be paying attention much.

 

[ATeam]

These elections are held when a lot of people are on vacation and may not be paying attention much.

How do you explain the MASSIVE turnout?

"The roughly 2.8 million votes cast dwarfed the 1.66 million ballots counted in the state’s 2022 primary elections, in which races for governor, the U.S. Senate and the U.S. House were up for grabs." (Source)

 

[muttly]

Also, without Trump on the ballot, Republicans don’t turnout the same.

 

[LDB]

So not allowing 17 year olds to vote takes away people's rights. And then 16 year olds. Etc. People need to be developed enough mentally to vote. Perhaps they should only be allowed to vote when they are old enough to hold the office they are voting for.

 

[ATeam]

Also, without Trump on the ballot, Republicans don’t turnout the same.

In fact, the Republicans did turn out. The issue failed because many of the Republicans who showed up voted against it. They too wanted to keep the right to amend the state constitution in the hands of the people. Issue 1 was soundly defeated by a bipartisan majority of voters who joined together to vote No.

 

[ATeam]

So not allowing 17 year olds to vote takes away people's rights. And then 16 year olds. Etc. People need to be developed enough mentally to vote. Perhaps they should only be allowed to vote when they are old enough to hold the office they are voting for.

Yes. Rights are limited by age in many cases. Some say today no one should be allowed to hold public office if they are above a certain age. If implemented, that too would be a case of limiting rights.

In the Issue 1 case, the question was not age but voting majority. Should the majority required to amend the OH state constitution be a simple majority at 50% or a super-majority at 60%. The voters gave their clear answer yesterday. The answer is 50%.

By the way, "The human brain undergoes significant development throughout childhood and adolescence, but it is generally believed that the brain doesn't fully mature until around the mid-20s. The prefrontal cortex, the region of the brain responsible for higher-order cognitive functions such as decision-making, impulse control, and planning, is one of the last areas to fully develop." (Source ChatGPT)

 

[muttly]

How do you explain the MASSIVE turnout?

"The roughly 2.8 million votes cast dwarfed the 1.66 million ballots counted in the state’s 2022 primary elections, in which races for governor, the U.S. Senate and the U.S. House were up for grabs." (Source)

I was comparing it to the 2020 presidential election where Trump’s vote alone dwarfed the total 2.8 million turnout.

 

[ATeam]

I was comparing it to the 2020 presidential election where Trump’s vote alone dwarfed the total 2.8 million turnout.

That's a fair point, and one that makes another; namely, abortion rights votes motivate Democrats more than Republicans, when abortion rights are threatened.

 

[ATeam]

Continuing Losses Rattle the Anti-Abortion Movement

While some conservatives like to pretend that Ohio's Issue 1 was merely a vote about the constitution amendment process, voter comments and post-election alarms sounded by anti-abortion groups clearly indicate this was an abortion-rights proxy vote; one which delivered a staggering loss to anti-abortion conservatives in this red state and nationwide.

This is the sixth consecutive time, and the third time in red states, where pro-abortion voters turned out in droves to enshrine abortion rights in their state constitutions (five states), or pave the way to do so in November (Ohio).

The following excerpts from this article tell the story.

Excerpts

Anti-abortion forces suffered a staggering loss in Ohio’s special election this week.

In the aftermath of that defeat and others over the last year, the [anti-abortion] movement is grappling with how to forge ahead.

State and national conservatives offer a litany of competing explanations for why they were massively outspent and out-organized.

Whether and how anti-abortion groups recalibrate over the next year could have massive implications — not only for the outcomes of future abortion-rights ballot initiatives around the country but also for Republicans up and down the ballot who back restrictions on the procedure.

“Some think that only a total ban is acceptable. But we see, over and over again, that such an uncompromising position doesn’t have support. There’s no political appetite for that,” [Brown] said.

"So long as the Republicans and their supporters take the ostrich strategy and bury their heads in the sand, they will lose again and again,” warned Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, a top funder of the August referendum.

Now, high off Tuesday’s win, abortion rights activists in Arizona, Florida and Missouri are working to get similar measures before voters next year.

But as some urge a full-scale revamp, many anti-abortion leaders say they want to stay the course going into November.

Anti-abortion advocates have clashed over the past year as their side lost in six other states abortion referendums last year and was blamed for a disappointing showing in the 2022 midterms. Far from turning the corner this year, they suffered defeat in a pivotal Wisconsin supreme court race and came up short again in Ohio.

Terry Schilling with the American Principles Project ... blames GOP donors for not investing enough in the race, noting that many are sitting out state abortion fights altogether after back-to-back defeats last year. ... “There’s this dangerous cycle that’s been created where the pro-life side loses and then donors get demotivated,” he said.

“Abortion limits need to be reasonable and popular,” Schilling said. “The best way forward is a 15-week law that allow exceptions for rape, incest and life of the mother. That’s harder for the other side to take down.”

 

[ATeam]

Trump is Right on This Issue, but it Does Not Seem to Matter

Since the US Supreme Court replaced Roe v. Wade with Dobbs v. Jackson, Republicans in several states have adopted and/or advocated extreme anti-abortion laws. By "extreme," I mean laws that widely vary from public sentiment.

This has energized abortion-rights organizations and voters. It has produced numerous Republican defeats in elections where the abortion question itself is on the ballot, and in special elections where, even in red districts, Democrats are strongly outperforming Republicans.

See: Democrats Have Been Winning Big in Special Elections

Since Dobbs, there have been five statewide elections where abortion rights were on the ballot. Anti-abortion forces lost every one of them, including those in red states. Per the source cited above, there have been 30 special elections for state legislature seats in 2023. Democrats won 25 of them with an average margin of victory of 11%.

Trump sees and understands this.

"In just the last week, Donald Trump called Florida’s six-week abortion ban “terrible,” refused to endorse national restrictions, blamed abortion opponents for Republicans’ 2022 election disappointments and pledged to compromise with Democrats on the issue if elected." (Source)

The problem for Republicans is many of them simply cannot or will not moderate their extreme anti-abortion positions. They seemingly cannot resist the urge to strip away the abortion rights the American people previously had and valued. Even if that means activating highly effective opposition against them in upcoming elections, the extremist Republicans enact the tightest anti-abortion laws they can.

Even Trump seems unable to stop this trend. As a candidate who is skilled at accurately detecting public sentiment, he sees the "terrible" (his word) impact the anti-abortion extremists are having. Trump is speaking clearly about this, but the extremists are not listening. Or if they are listening, they don't care.

I started this thread 17 months ago with the title, "The Defining Issue of 2024." The abortion-rights mobilization we now see in red and blue states alike, and the resulting wave of special-election Republican defeats, is exactly what I meant.

Developments in the last 17 months clearly illustrate that abortion rights is indeed the defining issue of 2024. Abortion-rights forces are rising up nationwide and they are crushing the anti-abortion candidates almost every time they appear on a ballot (25 of 30 times this year).

Nevertheless, anti-abortion Republicans are charging full steam ahead into public opposition they know is there. They do not seem to care about the resulting collision and election day carnage. They continue full steam ahead, ignoring even Trump as he tries to get them to tap the brakes.

If the special election results to date are any indication (and the people who study these things say they are), Election Day, 2024 is set to be a bloodbath of Republican defeats ... because abortion rights is indeed the defining issue of 2024.

To be fair, abortion rights is not the only item mobilizing voters. The anti-democracy acts of extreme Republicans are also having an effect. But it seems abortion rights is the primary motivator, and thus the defining issue of 2024.

 

[muttly]

Trump’s approach is best. There has to be some compromise by Republicans on abortion.
Dems also need to abandon their extreme no limits on abortion.

 

[LDB]

We just must allow a fair amount of baby murders. Baby's body, not baby's choice.

 

[muttly]

Approximately 6,200 Late Term Abortions.

 

[Ragman]

We just must allow a fair amount of baby murders. Baby's body, not baby's choice.

Approximately 6,200 Late Term Abortions.

 

[coalminer]

View attachment 22976

Exacty!!!!!

The best country in the world and we cant even mandate paid maternity/paternity leave for new parents. Having kids is expensive and at this rate nobody will be able to afford them at all.