the way I figure it is that come the first of the year expedite and trucking as a whole will lose rather significant percentage of O/os and also drivers, this will continue for however this slowdown will last, if it extends into 2009 the rate will increase as the O/o's that were able to hold on finally run out of funds and call it quits. the driver loss will start to level off. As freight becomes more available things will level off even for the O/o's however I do not see a lot of new entries into the O/o field as the profits will not be there, the large companies as stated are at least trying to cut into the expedite market and with the rates as low as they are will succeed in convincing the customers that they are almost as good,fast,and reliable as the traditional expeditors,so why pay the extra premium. Eventually unless something fundamentally is done the O/o's are going to be swallowed up by the large companies and independence as an O/o will be a thing of the past. Look back at what this business was like 8 or 10 years ago, the profit margins were in the 60bto 70 % range, today it is in the 30 to 40% range and dropping quickly, every slowdown has seen a very large drop in profits and when things got better the profits never quite got back to where they were there are lots of reasons for it but mainly greed is the culprit corporate greed form the companies that most are leased too but also from each and every company that touches this business, truck stops,restaurants,shops,part suppliers,ect. Then throw in 3pls and 4pls all wanting a cut I wonder how much of the actual price of the load is really left to the person actually doing the work and owning the equipment. Its been mentioned that there are always 3 or 4 people waiting in line to take someones place, well it used to be that way but I think the companies have a suprise in store for them, that well is going to dry up, it just costs to much to start up today and the people in the business well take a look around the equipment is getting older, it is being taken care of but eventually it is gonna wear out,even if it doesn't the federal government will mandate so many upgrades needed for environmental and fuel efficiency reasons that it will become unfordable in the near future to compete with the large companies that get huge discounts, better tax breaks, and exemptions from the government that we as O/o's don't get. I am of the school that this has been a long term plan by the large companies aided by government to do away with the independent O/o's so that the freight industry can be more centrally controlled. Before you dismiss that out of hand consider what happened to the independent farmer, yes there are still a few left but today corporations own and control most farming operations and are working hard to drive the few left out of business the next generation isn't going to know what a family farm is,the same is happening to the trucking industry.