It would be more than a tipping point - probably more like the edge of the cliff. Considering how the price of gas goes up when something like a thunderstorm over Houston happens, it's hard to imagine what would happen if the Straits of Hormuz were blocked. However, this is not the first time Iran has threatened to close the Straits and in 2006-07 a group of scholars at the Heritage Foundation did a study - or simulation - of what the consequences of such a closure would be.
If anyone is inclined to read through the second link which offers a detailed report of the simulation, keep in mind that these are 2007 numbers based on U.S. and European economies that were in much better shape than they are now. Granted, 85% of the oil passing through through the Straits goes to Asia but the recipients of those shipments include U.S. allies like Japan, South Korea and India, all of whom would naturally expect us to keep these international waters open. Even if the Chinese might want to get involved, the effect on the economy would still be disastrous due to the effects on oil prices.
Here's the bottom line: the U.S. needs to keep that passageway open at all costs. Iran does not get to decide whether or not international waters are open or closed, and the interests of the U.S. in this situation are extremely important to say the least. If there are any presidential candidates in the race that don't understand what's at stake here, they have no business taking up space on a ballot.Located between Oman and Iran, the Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint due to its daily oil flow of almost 17 million barrels in 2011, up from between 15.5-16.0 million bbl/d in 2009-2010. Flows through the Strait in 2011 were roughly 35 percent of all seaborne traded oil, or almost 20 percent of oil traded worldwide.
Source: U.S. Government (Click here to zoom out for alternate routes)
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
Keep reading - you'll eventually discover that it's THE PRICE OF OIL.
OK, let assume for a minute that the Iranians decide they're going to close the straits and president Ron Paul (I list him as the decision maker because not even Obama would allow this to happen) decides that he's not going to intervene and let our allies take care of the mess. First of all, our allies (and our enemies) will have just been given the confirmation that the U.S. can no longer be depended upon for anything. Considering their problems with their neighbors to the north, the South Korean navy is unlikely to make much of a contribution to the effort. Same for the Japanese, whose navy is tied up with protecting their own territories and maritime economic zone - the world's 7th largest. That leaves the Indian navy which could probably take care of the Iranians without too much difficulty if they were forced to go that route. But while they're engaged in a shooting war with the Iranians and the Paul administration is leading cheers from the sidelines the American public is faced with two areas of immediate damage: (1) the PRICE OF OIL spikes to never-before-seen highs and our economy goes straight to the dumper (see study of Heritage Foundation linked in previous post). (2) The international influence of the United States of America sinks to never-before-seen lows leaving the Russians and especially the Chinese an opportunity to increase their influence with a number of our FORMER allies.
Not hardly; I'm not overestimating their capabilities and neither is the team of PhD.s at Heritage who have considerably more information at their disposal than you or I. Even in their limited state, the Iranians could cause considerable economic damage to the US, Europe and Asia if they were able to close or impede the Straits for a week or two. Regardless of their bluster and hyperbole, they won't try it so long as we have naval and military assets in close proximity. Our economic interests require that we maintain that stability.
No argument there, thanks to Barack Hussein Obama
"Most of the world" can't even come close. S. Korea and Japan are tied up with their regional problems as previously described. The Iranians would probably challenge anybody else, save Russia, China and maybe India. However, if we follow Ron Paul's advocacy and Obama's implicit intentions to allow them to develop nuclear weapons, the whole picture changes for the extreme worse.
