OIL PRICES WILL FALL, JUST HOLD ON

[dhalltoyo]

Oil prices recently reached a record-high of over $75 a barrel. But I don't think it'll stay there.

Saudi Arabia’s oil minister Ali al-Naimi is warning that oil price hikes and global oil demand could soon disappear.

In fact, he is also warning that oil prices could easily “plummet†in the near future.

Ali al-Naimi said prices could plummet if an economic crisis drives industrialized nations to find other sources of energy, citing the 1980s – when oil prices dropped by 80 percent after such nations reduced their dependency on oil and turned to alternative energy sources.

I predict oil prices will dramatically fall in the next 12 months to as low as $40 a barrel!

Recent political fears have helped boost the price of oil to record levels in recent weeks.

In fact, many analysts continue to say that oil prices are likely to climb higher this summer – claiming crude-oil production is only barely keeping up with surging global demand.

That's nonsense!

The U.S. government admits that crude oil inventories are at 7 year record high -- with 343 million barrels of oil stockpiled in the U.S. alone!

The doom and gloom forecasts of $100 oil are based upon a common misunderstanding about oil supplies, and are being fueled by frenzied speculators. It has NOTHING to do with oil company profits. The oil companies were only at a "break even" profits for many years. Think not? Go back about 10 years and look at how cheap oil stocks were. The profits of today's market are going into reserve funds, because the cost to bring a new refinery on line will exceed all of the profits they have made in the last five years. I know, it is just human nature to blame somebody, but make sure the blame falls on the right persons....THE SPECULATORS!!!

Skyrocketing oil prices are just temporary and that a massive price collapse is coming that will bring oil down to $35 to $40 per barrel dwarfing the Dot-Com crash of 2000.

Oil prices have been inflated through Wall Street manipulation setting the average investor up for big losses.

Quit your whining!!! Despite recent price rises, we are now paying less for gasoline than people did in the 1980's or in 1935, after prices are adjusted for inflation.

 

[themagicoen]

Lets not forget the 700 million barells of oil in the emergency reserve... No one ever seems to mention how much they dump into that thing, they dump as much as they can so they can keep saying that we don't have enough supply inturn jacking prices up. I just can't see how they can justify raising prices on "fears" so if those fears don't come true it was all for nothing except more lost jobs and more money out of my pocket. What is it thier down up in Alaska? 200,000 a day? We have enough reserves to make up for that but Bush needs more money.

 

[garman351]

You must live in a fantacy world to think the American people will someday get a break!

Greed in my opinion has finally hit it's peek, but only to rise to higher levels.

Do you actually think all of these no good oil Company's are going to reduce their rich life styles to worry about the everyday working man.
You have big Government officials including our President all involved into this high level scam's. Every decision maker in our Government is being paid off in one way or another to go along with all the so-called reasons gas is so expensive.

I dont care what you say America is falling apart, a person has to work his or her whole life in most situations with out health care because they cannot afford to pay $1,000 or more per month for health insurance, only to be wiped out because of some exploited hospital bill that resulted from a hospital stay.

What about the drug company's who charge $200 on up for a simple bottle of pill's. Why else do you think they spend millions on TV advertising that most people could care less about, "why" because they make so-much profit they do it for tax write-off's

Even the utility Company's are now getting into better ways to rip off it's customers. I now pay $30 a month for misc charges on top of my regular gas & electrical bill.

I could tell you all day how the future looks pretty scary to everyday working people who live paycheck to paycheck, and cannot even think about putting up money for retirement.

Garman351 x( x(

 

[dhalltoyo]

Well, stop living from paycheck to paycheck.

This is the land of opportunity.

Start a second business, write a book, sell scrap metal, pick up pallets or invent something.

That is what makes America so great!

Every person in this country has the right to rise to their own level of ineptness. You'll get that in just a minute.

Americans are so enamoured with the concept of freedom that they has twisted it into something perverse.

For example: Not that it makes any sense at all, folks make 4 or 5 trips to the store instead of thinking about purchasing their needs for the entire week. Duh!

For example: Not that it makes any sense at all, we pay property taxes to fund school buses that run almost empty because we drive the kids to school or the older ones drive themselves. Why? Because folks are spineless and gutless to simply tell their kids to get up and get on the bus. Double duh!

For example: Not that it makes any sense at all, we over eat and eat junk that eventually requires us to take insulin, cholesterol lower meds and blood pressure meds too. Then we whine about the expense of these medication. Everybody wants a quick fix for the poor choices they have made. We certainly are a convenience oriented society. I have deemed this a 7-11 mentality.

You could be living in the UK where a gallon of fuel is $8.00/gallon. Of course, the Brits have some grit because they have fought a World War on their soil. They just buckle down and make the necessary changes in the way they live. The UK has a bicycle shop on every corner. Guess why?

 

[garman351]

Well that sounds like the biggest bunch of (Dog Stinky) I have ever heard. Land of the free you say. That all sounds real stylish, you just need to help out the rest of us to forge on. You should run for congress of Governor of your state, or even President PAL. You have all (Dog Stinky) talk down real good. I was advised to edit BUll----

Why is it you are the only person who ever has defended big oil company's. It's very clear to me you are part of the problem, I hope you enjoy what ever you get paid to try and spread your pro active (Dog Stinky) on this open forum.

Garman

 

[letzrockexpress]

Wow, Dhall speaks the truth! If you need more money, go out and find more...opportunites always exist for those with their eyes open.
I think Garman needs an economics lesson. What Dhall is refering to about the oil prices is that when the demand for the product decreases, the price will go down. It doesn't have anything to do with the Govenment giving us a break.It is simply supply vs. demand. I must say though that the demand still seems very high.

 

[cheri1122]

The supply vs demand model has a lot of holes in it, for instance, when cellphones became more widespread, thus dropping demand for pay phones, prices at pay phones increased. The Post office raised stamp prices when email cut into their business.
Oil prices are set by the Wall Street traders, & are driven up by speculation, which is often 180 degrees off, but still, the price goes up.
Demand isn't going to fall by much, because America has based it's transportation infrastructure on the needs of automobiles & trucks. When Dwight Eisenhower formed a commision to report on the country's transportation needs, public transportation was virtually ignored, in favor of the automobile. This should have surprised no one, since the head of the commitee was on the board of General Motors. As a former military man, President Eisenhower approved the creation of an interstate system designed to accommodate the military's needs, ie: all overpasses were designed to permit the passage of military shipments.
With so little attention paid to mass transportation, we are now stuck with the system created when the availability and price of oil wasn't a consideration.
And with the hypocrisy that is usual from the government, their best advice is for people to "conserve fuel"!

 

[Tennesseahawk]

Yep... conserve fuel. When you need to go somewhere, only go half way... then get out and push!

Seriously tho, we don't go somewhere unless we need to. Now, everything is based on how long it takes to get there, and do we really need it.

Supply and demand doesn't usually work if you're the only game in town, ie. stamps and pay phones. Doesn't seem to be working with oil now, either. My guess is that plenty of others are doing what we're doing as far as travelling only when necessary, and moreso in other countries. You'd think that would bring demand down, but there's always an excuse as to why it's going up. I can think of the ONLY excuse that makes any sense... GREED!

 

[letzrockexpress]

Say what you'd like but you can be assured that if other energy resources begin to replace petroleum, the price will definitely come down. I think that was the gist of dhalltoyo's post.

 

[dhalltoyo]

Garman,

I am a driver that faces the same concerns as anyone else in this business. And there lies the crux! It is a business.

I'd much rather be paying 99 cents/gal for fuel just like everyone else. Complaining and blaming does not solve the problem. You know, just like when dad yells at the wife and kids, only he feels better for a short period of time.

I just happen to like economics and I have read an extensive number of books regarding market economies. I have also had the pleasure of living in some other countries which has allowed me to see the mistakes other nations have made.

The UK is a good example. Because of extensive government intervention and price controls, they have a state owned society and a huge welfare program. 33% of the people work and the other 66% are of the public welfare roles. And that's why they are paying $8-10 per gallon.

When government allows business to work the good companies rise to the top. There are many oil companies that have gone out of business due to poor business decisions. The ones that remain have made the right decisions.

As a veteran who has served this country faithfully I will ask that you refrain from making any remarks that tarnish that service.

The vulgarity is also unnecesary. I get enough of that at truck stops. How crude for men to sit in a restaurant and "F" this and "F" that when ladies and children are present. Quite possibly that is why America has lost the blessings that made us such a great nation at the onset.

 

[garman351]

Hay David, I fully understand everything everybody has been saying, but I (totally Disagree) Nobody but nobody needs to make BILLIONS & BILLIONS of dollars profit, so their retiring ceo has a nice little $400 million retirement package plus everything else they get at the expence of the blood sweat & tears of the American People. Free interprise (Pure Dog Stinky) Read the story about "Tucker" a gentleman who invented a car with technology way ahead of it's time, only to get wiped out by GM,Ford and other big auto makers who were scard of their future so they influenced Government officials into a conspiracy to go after one man who they claimed he was frauding his investors, onlt to find out in Court Tucker did nothing wrong but was wiped out financially due to the big court costs etc going up against big business and our Government.

These Oil Companys control most of our Government officials by their big hush money spent to get their mules reelected to secure their greed at every level.

It's funny our President represents big oil Companys because he has invested big money into that market so he is part of the problem. while telling us everything will be ok, being an elected official that is supposed to represent the American People. That is conflict of interest where I come from.

I forget the name of that movie Eddie Murphey played a scam artist who found out how easy it was to get elected to be a represenitive of his state, only to find out the real big picture of what really took place once he was in Washington.

Or how about the movie (Bullworth)Warren Beaty played the part of a man trying to get elected to become a senitor who part way through his campain decided he was sick of all the lies and decided to tell the truth about all the corruption in big Government and was elected because People liked his honesty. My point all these story lines are true. x(

Also your remark about vulgarity, (freedom of speach Pal) Get off your soap box,as you say we all have our opinions dont we. I pay taxes just like evrybody else it's my job to question how our tax dollars are spent and how our Government is operated that is why I vote dont you. I say (DOG STINKY)Is that ok or am I offending some ones dog! Just wait we all are paying into social security only to find out someday their wont be any money to collect unless you turn 80 to be eligable. (Gas prices will go down keep that thought!)

I would like to thank all of you who sent me private messages telling me I'm right as rain about our little discussion, my mail box was full. It's to bad you all did not have the guts to comment on this topic in the open forum your self!

Garman351

 

[Tennesseahawk]

I don't think anyone is being an apologist for the oil companies. It looks to me that Toyo believes oil has reached its limits and has nowhere to go but down. I'm one to say that I'll believe it when I see it. For the last two and a half years, we've seen the same thing... goes up a dime, down a nickel, up a dime, down a nickel... until you get to now... up, up, up.

I have to agree with Garman about Bush. There is no way I can be an apologist for the man I voted for. I dread what the Republicans have done in the last 3 years, because if Democrats held Congress, there would've been inquiries which would've scared the boxers off of the oil tycoons. However, I'll be (hydro-electric feature)-ed that I'll vote Democrap until they start taking lithium!

I think oil companies are digging their own graves here. If and when hydrogen technology comes into play, their use will become limited. But, for now, they're laughing all the way to Wall Street. I've said this before... the government needs to get out of our daily lives. But something like this has the potential to shut the country down. Therefore, the government should take control of it and charge us what it costs them to find and refine it, plus the cost of fed fuel taxes.

 

[dhalltoyo]

FYI President Bush has more investments in a baseball team, tech companies and real estate than he has in oil. Of course, every other President has also had investments. Does that make them a part of the problem? If a person has worked their way up to the highest office in the land one would have to assume that they are qualified to hold that position. Obviously, the voters believed that premise. That is why President is an elected official. And thanks be to God that West Central Ohio put him over-the-top in the last election. I am pround to have excised my rights by passing out yard signs and making voter contacts. Our county made the difference! Or maybe you would rather have Gomer Pyle carrying the nuclear football, because Gomer is just a good old boy. I am certain Gomer knows all about economics.

Do I think President is infallible? Of course not, because he is a man just you and me. He will make mistakes, just like you and me. The difference is that he is the President, and you and I are not, but the office commands respect. I am not a huge fan of Clintons, but if they to walk into a room where I was seated, I would stand and greet them as Mr. President and Mrs. Clinton. Why? Give honor to whom honor is due.

Vote? You bet. But I do not rail on any elected official because they are an authority that has been placed over me. It is called government.

Freedom of speech does give you the right to be crude, but you don't have to. And if you were doing so in the presence of my wife and daughter I would ask you politely to stop; just as I asked two drivers in the Flying J this morning. Guess what? They apologized. You see, a reasonable man will accept wisdom; a fool always rejects. And a vulgar man...well. The mouth of the just bringeth forth wisdom: but the froward (perverse)tongue shall be cut out.

Oh, by the way...The rain falls on the just and the unjust alike.

I hope you have great success in your new business!

 

[babs3361]

I wish I had your Dream of Oil coming down. I don't believe it will. For one the oil companys haven't replaced Refineries or repaired them in years and don't blame EPA if oil companys wanted too it would have been done. As for using less oil, take our industry, more trucks, new exhaust,less mpg per mile. Means more fuel usage. All big industry are just plain greedy and that is why the middle class is dwendling. Oh lets not forget , that not only have oil companys made record profits aut they also got a 13 billion dollar tax breake too. I made a profit and had to pay more in taxes, i didnt get a tax breake. As for my vote, we live in a country where we have majior technology and yet we had majior problems at the voting polls the last 2 presidential elections this scares me. Why did they know that Ohio was going to be a factor, and the election before that Flordia was, brings more questions than answers. In all the yrs I have been voting this is the first time i have run into this. All politions are bought for by special interest and it is time for an american revolution. Not with guns but with your vote. Vote all incumbants out and when they don't do what the american people want vote them out the next time. No more career politions. And no more special interest to buy them. And please if you don't vote.... don't whine its very unbecoming.

 

[Tennesseahawk]

If I choose not to vote, it will be because there's no difference in the parties. If I do vote, it will most likely be Constitution party. The thing that makes me sick is ppl saying "You're wasting your vote." Well... everytime I voted so far, it didn't make a dam bit of difference; simply because none of them have my (the people's) interest at heart. They always rush to promise the world when it's election time. But the ones who see promises come true are the lobbyists.

A funny thing about what you mention, Babs. Election irregularities always happen. However, it's only when the Dems are on the losing end that you hear about it. No one fixed elections the last two times... it's about fixing the election booths.

 

[bryan]

Hi
IMHO Bush isn't the problem.He didn't even want to run when they ask him at the beginning of his fathers term.He was choosen by Carl Rowe and then groomed for the job.What we were showed during the campainges was just that a show.Our election system has some serious holes in it.A lot of people vote and have no idea of who or what they voted for.

Oil prices will go down, we are nearing the end of a double term presidentcy.The oil companies will want to continue their record profits and the Republicans want to keep power.Also as more alteratives come available oil companies will lower prices to keep competitive.Now if they were really worried about supply the prices would stay the same.

I just hope that we learned our lesson.Our greed got Bush elected.We sold ourselves down this river for a $400.00 tax cut.Of course that $400.00 cost me $10,000.00 in lost revenue.How much did it cost you?Live and learn.

 

[garman351]

Thank You: Babs3361 & Tennesseahawk.
Here is what I see about big corrupted business. Example Phillip Morris. Who made more money selling cigarettes than any oil Company. Our little Government officials finally told them the pressure they were receiving about health risks etc, were told to invest their money into other markets because the end was coming for them, but they would work together and hold off the due gooders as long as they could. Result Phillip Morris has shifted it's money and now owns a major movie Company etc.

Big Oil Company's same thing. Hydrogen the cleanest source of energy and the waste product is water coming out of tail pipe! Why in the world hasn't anybody stepped up to the plate and started to produce these vehicles, "we all know why" Their is still to much money to be made off the American people to produce gas, it's that simple. So when the end is near for big oil Company's they will have been well prepared and has invested it's big money into Hydrogen than to place TV advertisments on how bad gas was and how they are saving the planit for us to buy their new product. Like Phillip Morris with their TV advertisments telling everybody how smoking is killing people.

dhalltoyo.Wow,your remark about portraying Southern People as being stupid! "Gomer Pyle mentality" And your remarks about swearing. Every TV show you watch has all kinds of swearing, they are saying things you would never have dreamed of on TV now. It's to bad we all do not live in Mayberry and this is not the good ol days either. Get over it.

Garman

 

[Tennesseahawk]

I really doubt that tax break was a reason anyone voted for him. I believe it was more like - look at who's running against him.

I will say that I agree with your philosophy about them lowering gas prices to cool off tempers before election time. But I'll also bet this coming election is a test case. Republicans are looking like they'll gain seats. And if they do, the oil giants will see more of the same complacency that got the country into this mess in the first place. I'd have to put partial blame on the Dems tho. With them being in such a disarray with their nutcase opinions and such, they're only making the iron grip of the Republicans stronger.

"People enter politics to help the country. They stay in politics to help themselves." - Mike Church

 

[highway star]

My former bro-in-law and sis-in-law always vote some type of third party citing the mediocrety of choices. I have always criticized them for it. But as the left continues to yell about the sky falling without any real answers of their own, and the right seemingly on a fast track to the middle, maybe it's not a bad idea. When Clinton got his second term, I really felt like just giving up. I could'nt believe that many people could'nt see that this guy was just riding the wave of the healthy economy he inherited and letting his ego bask in realizing his life long dream.

I don't know if Toyo's right or not, but I applaud anyone with the cahonies to go public with an optomistic view. When the pessimists among us seem to be a very vocal majority at times, ready to belittle anyone not agreeing with them, I have to give Toyo a pat on the back. The "we're going to h**l in a hand basket" types have been howling since I was a little kid. Many years later, this country is still the best thing going. Not perfect, but pretty d**n good!

 

[dhalltoyo]

Babs,

Have you ever lived outside of the US?

I lived in the Philippines. They have NO middle class. The same is true for all countries outside of the US and Europe.

Be thankful you have one here.

In the Philippines 70% of the population lives below the poverty level.

They knew? Any good political researcher will know from whence cometh the votes. That is why any presidential hopeful will focus on particular states and not even visit others. This comes as no great revelation if you'll take the time to read about our system government.

I have covered the oil situation in previous post so I will not spend more time here.

This may also come as a huge surprise to you, but there is always going to be rich and poor folks. 2000 years ago Jesus told his disciples, "For ye have the poor always with you; but me ye have not always."

I'll stand on historical fact.

A belief that everybody is going to be on the same economic level already exists...it's called communism. Unfortunately, liberals push centralized government which fosters the birth of socialism and that has lead to communism.