Then don't be chicken sh!t....
Hey Leo! You missed this one. OVM used an exclamation point instead of an "i" to fool the automatic censor and posted a naughty word.
Then don't be chicken sh!t....
Yeah and I'll bet the first OTR carriers will be American ones......like Swift and Warner.....they'll just transfer trucks to Mexico and plate them there...and hire Mexican drivers. It is what I would do...
It was the "...and they spoke good english" part of your quote that caused me to respond.
Well that's the problem, no one really knows and it is a bunch of opinions floating around.
Like the costs don't magically vanish because someone is operating from another country.
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But see here is the problem I am seeing - expedited loads are not the target of those who are trying to get into this form south of the border because there are too many variables involved with it - like return trips at LTL rates.
Take in account that much of the work is TL work coming out of these areas, it is those big box carriers like Swift, the pumpkin and others who will face the competition. Panther, Load-1, etc.. may see a reduction in work but that may be limiting that spill over stuff that is missed or can't get on one truck and not regular work as many have been expecting to get all the time.
Many want to lump all of this all together and say it will gut the industry where I see it hitting one segment in the industry while just barely effecting all the others. That segment is the one where they have the revolving door and problems with drivers which is not this one.
The Big 3 is already hip to outsourcing to Mexico. Why wouldn't they solicit Mexican carriers to compete with US/Canadian expeditors in order to lower transportation costs? They already have relationships with Mexican carriers to get the product from the border to the plants down there, all they would need to do is change the model a little bit and turn the expedites into dedicated team milk runs from Detroit, Toronto, Chicago, etc to Mexico and have the Mexicans bring the racks back north, drop and hook to a loaded trailer and do it all over again. Will this affect all expedites...of course not, and there will be a need for expedites down there on NA carriers. This model plays right into the North American Super Highway they envisoned when NAFTA was first rammed down our throats.
It's going to happen, it will affect expeditors; just how much remains to be seen.
The Big 3 is already hip to outsourcing to Mexico. Why wouldn't they solicit Mexican carriers to compete with US/Canadian expeditors in order to lower transportation costs? They already have relationships with Mexican carriers to get the product from the border to the plants down there, all they would need to do is change the model a little bit and turn the expedites into dedicated team milk runs from Detroit, Toronto, Chicago, etc to Mexico and have the Mexicans bring the racks back north, drop and hook to a loaded trailer and do it all over again. Will this affect all expedites...of course not, and there will be a need for expedites down there on NA carriers. This model plays right into the North American Super Highway they envisoned when NAFTA was first rammed down our throats.
It's going to happen, it will affect expeditors; just how much remains to be seen.
Well hate to break the news to you but with the rates being **** low from NLM and other auto freight sources, there won't be much missed if at all. Companies like GM already use Canadian and Mexican trucking companies, I do work for one every other week and it seems they are fully aware of the "savings" or lack of that this can produce for them. BUT really how much lower do you guys actually think they are going to bring the rates down to?
40 cents a mile for vans?
Seriously you ever see what these loads are going for now and why they sometimes sit until they are dumped onto a large truck for ltl movement?
How much "expedited" freight do you all honesty think there is?
Maybe John from L-1 can give us all an insight to the amount of freight that is actually moved via NLM that is actual "Expedited" freight?
IF GM and Ford and Fiat were really really smart here is what they could do - ready for this?
They could negotiate with the US and Mexican government with the rail lines and move mass amounts of freight without the worry of trucks losing out.
Opps ... they are already moving things by rail.
"How much "expedited" freight do you all honesty think there is?
Rates are down because it's early August, these same rates on the same boards/lanes were soild in June before the shut down.
Both L-1 and my company share some of these same boards so we both see these trends.
I think you nailed it right on the head when you said:
So more competition will only affect rates, being the stock market took a dump today, the economy is slow etc etc etc it is only going to put more pressure on the rates. Rates have been declining in this industry since the mid 90's. Cost of doing business has only gone up. We will adjust, like we always have done.... still sucks tho! LOL
greg334;464952]Well I would expect that we would have the typical vacation/change over time in July but I went to a couple plants in the past week and I didn't see the parking lots empty or workers not working. I wonder how much are the traditional things being done and how much work they are trying to get out before the new model year?
Just curious, how much analytical data do you guys actually get? I mean do you have access to historical data outside your own company's data or are you limited to live data without historic trends that you can use in raw form?
Not to put bash this niche part of the industry but I feel the answer is maybe less than .0001% of the freight moved is actually true 'need to get there yesterday' freight with the remainder as I said in another thread freight that is deemed expedite by one or any of three parts of the transportation chain - shipper, carrier or consignee, may not be anything but overflow or forgotten freight with the capacity on demand being cheaper than letting it sit on the dock.
Well first the stock market is not the indicator we need to watch but that's mine and a bunch of economist saying it.
Second the competition is where? If we are talking about Mexicans and their trucks, I don't see the added competition being as detrimental as say the house cleaning some carriers are going to do over the revised CSA rules.
I think adding to this the fallacy of a driver shortage may end up balancing things out to the point that it may not be an issue after all.
I see a bit different problem with the two factors that are involved with the big box carriers - the revolving doors and related liabilities of drivers being employed short term and the issues caused by the feds with their kick of safety this and safety both putting a downward trend on driver qualifications, training and ability to move within the industry out of the traps they set for these drivers. All of which may be a bit more important than Juan coming over here to haul TVs from the LG plant in Juarez to Chicago.
Agent in Detroit tried to yell at me for going through FAST lane empty until I showed him the letter they hand out stating it's allowed. Dope.