Jimmy Carter Redux - Obama Leads from Behind, Middle East Implodes

RLENT

Veteran Expediter
But not to worry - Ron Paul's streak is still intact, as if anyone is surprised by the results in Maine.
Yup, no surprise ..... the support just continues to go up .... to another highest ever ..... 36% in Maine

Who knows what it might have been - had the ever-corrupt GOP not attempted, once again, to "game the system" by postponing the caucus in that one single county (word is Paul may have had that one locked up) until next week ..... because of a predicted (wait for it) ... 2" to 4" of snow ..... in Maine .....

Snow ? ..... in Maine ?

Say it ain't so !

Nevertheless, Dr. Paul predicted that he would likely take the majority of delegates from the state ....

Be on the lookout for the party of criminals (GOP) to try and somehow game that as well ....
 
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RLENT

Veteran Expediter
Do keep this in mind, however.
Yup .... read it last night/early this morning (?) .....

One should also keep in mind that most of the "reporters" that are reporting on this are largely unfamiliar with how the process actually works (varies state to state), and how the delegates are actually allocated - and so, are subject to manipulation by others ..... which is what largely accounts for all the highly inaccurate reporting in the MSM thus far .....

Doug Wead, Paul Campaign spokesperson, appeared on Rachel Maddow last night and addressed the issue of how the process works generally, in depth, probably spending 8 - 10 minutes or so on it ....

You could tell from Maddow's set up for the interview it was all pretty much new news to her ...

Frankly, the article in The Street is just more spin by the establishment GOP and the media ..... ostensibly to inaccurately characterize the Paul campaign as being "misleading" .....

Where have these guys been for the last month or so, while the rest of the MSM were inaccurately reporting on it ? :rolleyes:
 
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Turtle

Administrator
Staff member
Retired Expediter
Well, to be fair, it is a little misleading to say that in a given precinct that Paul got ALL of the delegates, when the delegates haven't even been selected yet. Those pretty pie charts, without the proper context, is very misleading to most people. The Street piece, rather than being spin, merely provides the proper context.
 

RLENT

Veteran Expediter
Well, to be fair, it is a little misleading to say that in a given precinct that Paul got ALL of the delegates, when the delegates haven't even been selected yet.
I believe your assertion (above) is incorrect, if I am reading (and understanding) what you are saying correctly.

You may wish to re-read the article - or expound on what you wrote above. (Just keep in mind when re-reading it, it was probably written by someone with a fairly limited understanding of the process to begin with, and may still have some confusions)

The delegates at the precinct level (in Colorado) have been elected/selected. That's done as part of the precinct caucus process, usually after the precinct straw vote is taken. Obviously once the straw vote for candidates is done, many folks, being unwilling to commit to being a delegate, simply leave, and do not participate in the delegate election process.

The only place that may not be true AFAIK is, if during the caucus, there were not enough people who stepped forward to be elected as a precinct delegate to fill all the available delegate slots for that precinct, the remaining open (precinct) delegate slots may be filled through a different procedure (such as being appointed by the precinct chair, county GOP, whatever)

I have not read the email from the campaign that was referenced in the article in it's entirety - since, well .... the reporter apparently didn't bother to quote it in it's entirety (.... which could be a failure to provide proper context ... and might be misleading .... :rolleyes:)

Judging from the quote used, and other things mentioned in the article, the source for the article would appear to be the following campaign press release which was issued this past Wednesday, the 8th:

RON PAUL WINNING THE BATTLE FOR DELEGATES

Of course, the press release itself makes it entirely clear that no delegates to the national convention have been awarded yet in any of the caucus states. If the writer indeed received it, one can only wonder why he might have failed to include the appropriate context ....

Those pretty pie charts, without the proper context, is very misleading to most people.
I don't know - I haven't surveyed most people :p .... but it's not an entirely unreasonable assumption, given the confusion in the media.

The point of my original post (with the chart) was to simply show that contrary to what has been reported in the MSM, where delegates to the national convention are discussed as though they are already pledged/awarded/selected, the straw poll votes are not necessarily reflective of how delegates at precinct level are selected.

I was not attempting to write a definitive piece explaining the complete delegate selection process in it's entirety for all 50 states - but your criticism is fair - it would have been better had I included the accompanying text that was with the pie chart (which I have below)

However, what I provided was accurate (in that the delegates referred to were clearly referred to as precinct delegates).

Below is the text I (which I elected not to post with the pie chart, since wasn't it particularly germane to the particular point I was making) - please note the portions which I have highlighted:
STRAW POLLS VS. COLLECTING DELEGATES
Last night was a good night for Ron Paul. But it was a better night than many might realize.

The desire to accumulate as many delegates as possible has long been the campaign’s primary focus. After all, this is how one becomes the nominee. But collecting delegates is not the same thing as winning the straw polls, which obviously make the headlines.

Ron Paul 2012 campaign chairman John Tate explains:

“We are thrilled with the yesterday’s results. Our campaign to Restore America continues to gain ground, and we are poised to pick up even more delegates from Minnesota and Colorado adding to our delegates in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada.

“As people across the country view the results of yesterday’s contests, it is important to consider a few facts that have not been clearly reported. Not one single delegate was awarded yesterday, instead the caucuses in Minnesota and Colorado were the very first step in the delegate selection process. And there are still over 40 states left to go. The Ron Paul campaign plans to continue to vie for delegates nationwide.”

Indeed.

Below is a pie chart created by a supporter that shows how Paul’s straw poll performance measures against collecting delegates in particular Colorado precincts. You will notice in each example, the delegates selected exceed the straw poll results. To say the least: [pie chart]

The above could be somewhat confusing to someone who doesn't understand the process - in that when John Tate says "Not one single delegate was awarded yesterday ...." above he is correct: no delegates to the national convention were awarded - but that doesn't mean precinct level delegates weren't elected.

The Street piece, rather than being spin, merely provides the proper context.
Sorry, but that doesn't wash from my perspective - for what ought to be fairly obvious reasons. (I could point out numerous problems in the writing of the article - I'm sure it would be an interesting exercise and quite fun - but it would take a significant of T & E)

While The Street piece provides additional info about the delegate selection process beyond what I provided (but perhaps not beyond what the campaign originally provided the writer) it doesn't just "merely" provide context - because of how it characterizes the matter.

A significant portion of The Street piece is spin (or a thinly veiled hit piece) - because of the characterizations it used to imply something nefarious or misleading was done in terms of the information supplied by the Paul campaign - without ever bothering to share the evidence (entire context - the complete email) to demonstrate that assertion.

The situation (with The Street specifically) is analogous to supplying someone with a certain amount of information, in good faith, assuming that the individual that is on the receiving end is knowledgeable and smart enough to figure out what it means in the big scheme of things, or at least ask if they don't understand - and then wind up being skewered because the recipient is either to ignorant or stupid too figure it out.

In that vein, a reading of the comments to article might be worth perusing.

As a closing thought, at the end of the piece you have the following quotes from Don Suppes, Delta County GOP Chairman:

"I don't know how they came up with that [delegate] number, because we don't have anything in our caucus process ... when we sign up our county delegates ... that says you're a supporter of this, you're a supporter of that," Don Suppes, Delta County GOP chairman, said in a phone call. "The only way that could be is if some internal person in that caucus knows who all their supporters are and they all got volunteered to be delegates."


Well yeah Don, I'm guessing they probably do have some internal person(s) .... and it's the kind of thing that absolutely drives the establishment GOP nuts ..... because it makes it much harder for them to game the system and shut people out through various (nefarious) means, if they don't know who the opposition is.

"Right after the caucus I got an email from one of [Paul's] Colorado chairman for his campaign, and they were asking for a list of the delegates and I don't know why they were so interested in that list," Suppes said. Suppes said Paul's was the only campaign to request the list.



I'm quite sure that Mr. Suppes knows exactly why he received the above request .... even if he isn't entirely happy about it.
 
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Turtle

Administrator
Staff member
Retired Expediter
That's an awful lot of text (spin) for such a simple thing. I admire the impassioned frothy, though. :D

The pie charts and accompanying text indicate Ron Paul won a bunch of "delegates". People (most of them, yes, most, including the ever popular...most) think of "delegates" in terms of the delegate count with respect to the 1144, since it's that magic 1144 that matters. The 1144 type of "delegates" are apples. The pie chart "delegates" are oranges. Context. No need to get frothy. No need to spin it. Context. Plain and simple, context.

The question is: How many delegates of the necessary 1144 did Ron Paul win in Colorado? Or Missouri? Or Minnesota? The only answer required to each of those questions is a simple number. If Paul won seventeen in Colorado, then the answer for Colorado would be "seventeen". No additional text or explanation required. If he won eleven in Missouri, the answer would be "eleven", again, with no additional text or explanation required. I could present an equally arbitrary hypothetical example for Minnesota, but I think the point has been made using Colorado and Missouri.

The answer to to each of those three states is "zero", and there need be no additional text or explanation necessary, save for the fact that commentary (A.K.A. spin) and pretty pie charts leave the distinct impression that Paul Ron won way more than "zero". You (a general you, but also a specific you) can't say Ron Paul won this many or that many delegates from this or that precinct without providing the context with relation to the 1144. To do otherwise is misleading spin, and it's done specifically because of how most people think of "delegates". Surely you don't think that the Ron Paul campaign is incapable of spin.

To say, for example, that Paul got a small percentage of the votes, yet somehow managed to garner most of all of the delegates, is misleading. No delegates have been awarded as of yet. It's the 1144 delegates that matter to people when they hear the word "delegate". The The Street piece, in explaining how the actual delegates haven't been awarded yet, and even when they are they won't be bound to a candidate, which leaves them free to cast their delegate vote to represent the will of the people, provides context. If you want to call The Street piece "spin", then you really should check out Doug Wead giving the same, exact spin (what I am choosing to label as "context") as a guest on Maddow's show. Context.

Of course, I'm sure you've seen the Maddow video with Wead. But those who haven't should see it, if for no other reason than to be able to put your spin in context. <wink, snicker, wink>
 

Pilgrim

Veteran Expediter
Retired Expediter
Actually, the delegate count is pretty easy to understand.

StateDateDelegatesRomneySantorumGingrichPaulDelegate AllocationOpen/Closed
Total-2,28698443220--
IowaJan 3286700Non-Binding CaucusClosed
New HampshireJan 1012*7003Proportional PrimaryOpen
South CarolinaJan 2125*20230Winner Take All Primary[SUP]1[/SUP]Open
FloridaJan 3150*50000Winner Take All PrimaryClosed
NevadaFeb 42814365Proportional Caucus[SUP]1[/SUP]Closed
MinnesotaFeb 74021714Non-Binding CaucusOpen
ColoradoFeb 73691721Non-Binding CaucusClosed
MaineFeb 11248007Non-Binding CaucusClosed

Source: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/republican_delegate_count.html
 

davekc

Senior Moderator
Staff member
Fleet Owner
Talk about complicating the simple. Ron Paul is pretty much where most thought he would be.
Little has changed other than he hasn't won a single state yet.
 

Turtle

Administrator
Staff member
Retired Expediter
Actually, the delegate count is pretty easy to understand.
Yeah, except that Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, Minnesota and Maine have yet to award any delegates to anyone. The numbers in the table above for those states are purely estimates, "projected delegates", not actual awarded delegates.

Missouri, or example, won't actually award any delegates to anyone until March 17th, and they'll divide them up more or less in proportion to the popular vote. Maine awards 24 delegates, also proportionally, but they haven't awarded a single one of them yet. Neither Romney nor Paul has garnered a single Maine delegate at this point.

Paul's strategy depends on persistence of his supporters and the non-binding status of the precinct delegates, who will then elect delegates at the county and/or state level, which will then be awarded to the candidates. The caucuses in all the aforementioned states, and the ones yet to come, are basically your average high dollar dog and pony show where nothing really happens.

Paul's strategy will likely throw the "projected delegate" count off a little. It won't be enough so that he comes out of nowhere, on a technicality, and shocks people when he is awarded most of Nevada's or Missouri's or Minnesota's or Maine's or Iowa's delegates. That's what many Ron Paul supporters think will happen, though, and that's the plan, but it's very unlikely that it will turn out that way to the degree they hope it will.


"Talk about complicating the simple. Ron Paul is pretty much where most thought he would be.
Little has changed other than he hasn't won a single state yet."


Watch the video at the link I provided. It's truly not as simple as it may seem. Paul's strategy is one that won't likely win him the nomination, but it will get him more delegates than people think, and it will be enough to net him some serious juice at the party's national convention. All he needs is 20 or 25 percent of the needed votes to win the nomination to get that juice. 20 percent is just 229 delegates, and he's almost certainly gonna get that many. His strategy in the causus states will accomplish that, probably. He's liable to get twice that many, actually.
 

davekc

Senior Moderator
Staff member
Fleet Owner
I do agree with that. He will get a place at the table. But like you said, not likely to win the nomination.
 

RLENT

Veteran Expediter
ROTFLMAO ..... hilarious .....

Sorry, but you ain't gonna understand what is actually going on - not based on that simplistic data anyways - because it's likely inaccurate (or will be), due to the fact that it's based on estimates. One needs to understand the process.

Of course, it's not entirely surprising that some might believe it ...... after all, some apparently believe that the United States is some totally beneficent state that has never in it's entire history, ever meddled in the internal affairs of another nation ....

If one wants to really understand the entire delegate selection process, in minute detail, probably the best place to go on the internet is "The Green Papers" - the largely definitive online source on the matter, from top to bottom, in full four-part harmony:

Delegate Counts Republican Convention

Clearly, if one reviews the delegate "counts" at the above link, one can see there are some ...... "issues" ...... with what RCP is reporting (which is merely an estimate - but RCP doesn't bother mentioning that fact anywhere .....) and what The Green Papers report.

Why is that I wonder ?

It's really no big surprise - afterall, RCP is part of the "media"... just like most of the others that are mis-reporting on the matter .....

While you're there at The Green Papers, if you navigate to other parts of the site - like The Glossary - you can also learn the differences about various types of delegates like "Hard Pledged", "Soft Pledged", "Soft Unpledged" ..... and what "Hard Total" and "Soft Total" really mean ..... and a pretty complete description of the process ......

Moreover, even the numbers reported on The Green Papers site are only an estimate (which is clearly spelled in the definitions of the various delegate types, and probably other places as well) ..... and anyone that reports national delegate counts from caucuses as fact (rather than merely an estimate) is engaging in fantasy .... because, at this point, none have been awarded.

The start of the process to select and award (many/most) of the delegates from caucus states starts at the precinct level - by winning the delegates (not straw votes) there, and continues on from that point.

And that's a big part of understanding what eventually happens ..... and why it does.

But hey, if RCP works for you, have at it .....
 
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Pilgrim

Veteran Expediter
Retired Expediter
I do agree with that. He will get a place at the table. But like you said, not likely to win the nomination.
The sad fact is that even without winning a single state the GOP will have to placate him to a certain degree at the convention to keep him from running as a third party candidate. He'll likely get a few planks in the party platform, but a lot of these planks get ignored by the eventual presidential candidate.
 

Pilgrim

Veteran Expediter
Retired Expediter
All he needs is 20 or 25 percent of the needed votes to win the nomination to get that juice. 20 percent is just 229 delegates, and he's almost certainly gonna get that many. His strategy in the causus states will accomplish that, probably. He's liable to get twice that many, actually.
Actually 20% of the available 2286 delegates would put him at 457 - too early to tell, but IMHO he ain't gonna make it. Your 230 range is about 10% and that's where he stands now in the early stages with the fuzzy numbers. His problem is that none of the other candidates are going to bail out, barring something unexpected - so he winds up last in delegates but has enough to get a seat at the table and they toss him a couple of bones. What the heck - if that keeps him from running 3d party candidacy it's a relatively small price to pay just to get him out of their hair.
 
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