Too many straight trucks.
Too many cargo vans.
Too many expediters in general.
There will be some dramatic changes over the next 60-90 days.
HOS rules, coupled with increasing fuel and maintenance costs, will cause many solo straight trucks to leave the industry. The huge increase in the number of "For Sale" trucks is a key indicator to the change that has already begun. Look at all of the 2007, 2006, 2005 trucks for sale. More than I have ever seen. Some fleet owners, having mostly solo drivers, are selling off units and even their entire fleet.
During the winter slow down, folks will go home, look at their books, weigh the cost per the return, discuss their particular situation with family members and friends and then decide to find suitable employment locally.
Team trucks will fair somewhat better and anyone with experience in the industry could survive if leased to those carriers specializing in team loads; I count three that fit such criterion.
Cargo vans that can handle 3000 lbs and up to 10 feet of load capacity should weather the shake out. Of course, than means no sleeper and only a few will be willing to sleep on the floor with a sleeping bag. Idling is too costly and the thought of waking up in a truck with frost on the "INSIDE" of your windows will keep many off the road.
During this cycle the competitive rates will leave no room for error, no hotel stays, no staying South during inclement weather, no adding convenience items to the truck, no deadhead for birthdays and weddings, no out of route sightseeing trips, etc.
And before you start piling on by telling me how well you are doing...you are the exception that proves the rule. I have met many of you and you have already figured out how to make it work for yourself. I am speaking to those who are considering this type of business. Moreover, I am not speaking to retirees that only expedite to simply fill a void in their free time. Remember, their cars, trucks and houses are usually for.
The rule: This is a very demanding business. "Business" being the key word. It has been my experience that most folks are coming from jobs where they punched a time clock everyday for 20+ years. They had a routine; their lives were following a pattern. In the wonderful world of expediting...every moment is a constant state of change.