How to guarantee Ron Paul won't run 3rd party

RLENT

Veteran Expediter
Such a long long article to say:

The only way to guarantee Ron Paul doesn't run as an independent is to make him the nominee.
One should, at all times, try to avoid confusing one thing for another ..... in this case, mistaking an argument for a statement ......
 

Ragman

Veteran Expediter
Retired Expediter
I'm just wondering if we are seeing another 1912 election on the republican side?

hypocrisy.png
 

muttly

Veteran Expediter
Retired Expediter
Yes that is all true but like the democrats, even after they are told. It shows the true colors and level of intelligence in the party to the public and will pave the way for not just Obama but possible a BIden running and winning in 2016.

And then depression set in. (movie Stripes reference):rolleyes:
 

RLENT

Veteran Expediter
New polling puts Dr. Ron Paul up even higher than is being generally reported, Politico reports:

The latest Iowa State/Gazette/KCRG poll reinforces the trend showing Ron Paul to be the local favorite:

Paul is the first choice of 27.5 percent of 333 likely caucusgoers among the 740 registered Republicans and 200 registered independents contacted by ISU. That’s up from 20.4 percent in an ISU/Gazette/KCRG poll in November. He’s followed closely by former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich whose support increased from 4.8 percent to 25.3 percent. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney came in at 17.5 percent, up from 16.3. ...

While Paul’s lead is easily within the margin of error, James McCormick, professor and chair of political science at Iowa State and coordinator of the poll, says the polling found that 51 percent of those naming the libertarian-leaning Texan as their first choice are “definitely” backing him.

The percentage for the next two candidates is much weaker, at 16.1 percent for Romney and 15.2 for Gingrich, McCormick said.

The poll was taken over a long period of time -- Dec. 8 to 18 -- so that could explain why Gingrich's numbers look better here than they do elsewhere. The biggest takeaway, though, is that Paul-mentum is showing up in a number of places now and the intensity of his support is very real.
 

RLENT

Veteran Expediter
The Tea Party Anniversary Money Bomb, which supposedly "ended" Sunday midnight with slightly over $4 million, has been left up on the Ron Paul Campaign website. Normally it's taken down after each event, after donations taper off.

However, it appears that this time, at least for the moment, something different is happening - the donations continue to steadily flow in - apparently with no let up.

As of a moment ago ..... two days after "ending" ..... the total haul now stands at:

$4.312 million dollars

Now I could be wrong about this, but I predict that by the time the Iowa primary rolls around (January 3rd) it will have reached critical mass .... and it will appear as though someone has opened a floodgate.

There is a very specific reason why this is happening.
 
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RLENT

Veteran Expediter
I'm just wondering if we are seeing another 1912 election on the republican side?
G,

Sorry I missed this one - got lost in the shuffle :eek:

Yeah ... I'm thinkin' it could be lookin' like it - seems like the GOP Establishment sure thinks something is afoot:

There are some among the media, having at least some degree of integrity, and not being driven solely by a partisan agenda, who might qualify as "honest brokers" and are willing to speak truth to power - here are three:

People in Iowa Rally To Real Change

Why Ron Paul Shouldn't be Dismissed

As Paul Gains Republican Establishment is Losing It

Ron Paul: GOP Establishment Heartburn

The following video from back in 2007 is incredible because of what it reveals, much of which has come true, a good deal of it fairly recently:

Four Star General Confirms Ron Paul's Views on Present Foreign Policy

Clearly, Wesley forgot he was being recorded ... can't imagine anyone would let him wander this far off the farm ....
 
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greg334

Veteran Expediter
I have to add something else to that thought.

Seeing the tea party people have been slammed by the republicans a few times, this latest round of "we aren't going along with the dems" has put a lot of people on the defensive over the unemployment extension, etc. ... So I'm wondering how many of the tea party people are going to support Paul over the republican party (maybe leave or at least force a BIG change) because they may not be reelectable if they end up appearing to be aligned with the present republican leadership in congress?

I know I should have added this in the first place but the tea party people were told to sit down and shut up when the debt issue was being discussed and before that the 2011 budget. They wanted to allow the government to shut down which to me was the right thing to do but the house leadership and the senate minority leadership both were not going to allow this to happen. That was the time to put a stop to a lot of the crap and stop working with the dems, but not now.
 

Turtle

Administrator
Staff member
Retired Expediter
That's an awfully, awfully powerful ad with a very powerful message. It's not even about Ron Paul, it's about the message and why people need to wake up and realize that business and politics as usual will destroy everything we believe in. It's already happening.
 

cheri1122

Veteran Expediter
Driver
That 'people' have awakened to the need for changes is clear in the 2 watershed events in recent years: Obama's election [promising 'hope & change'] and the Occupy Movements.
Both are unprecedented evidence of the growing need for changing 'business as usual', and those who ignore and/or deny it are living in a fantasy world.
Like Washington DC, and Wall Street, executive boardrooms, campaign headquarters, and medialand.
They don't 'get it' yet, but they will.
Politicians [just like Gingrich, Romney, Perry, et al] have brought the US to the edge of disaster, and more like them is the last thing we need.
We need a statesman: Ron Paul.
I don't agree with every one of his positions, but I think he has more personal integrity than the rest combined, and that alone is worth supporting.
 

RLENT

Veteran Expediter
That's an awfully, awfully powerful ad with a very powerful message.
Indeed .... I was quite impressed when I watched it.

Dunno if RevPac is using the same very talented DC outfit as the Paul campaign, but whoever put this together is way gifted (IMO :rolleyes:)

It's not even about Ron Paul, it's about the message and why people need to wake up and realize that business and politics as usual will destroy everything we believe in. It's already happening.
Precisely: The Message is King.

And, as Marshall McLuhan has said: the medium is the message.

Being able to exploit it like was done in this case, and largely in the Paul campaign's other ads as well, is a feat that few are able to achieve - as is clearly evident when comparing and contrasting to what some of the other campaigns are running.

When you can achieve the paradigm of making your stuff look like the real thing ..... and consequently having some of the others looking like substitutes for it ... that is quite a feat ;)
 
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AMonger

Veteran Expediter
That 'people' have awakened to the need for changes is clear in the 2 watershed events in recent years: Obama's election [promising 'hope & change'] and the Occupy Movements.


Yes, both of those events show that the number of people who believe they have a right to Other People's Money has grown to the point at which they can actually destroy the country.

Politicians [just like Gingrich, Romney, Perry, et al] have brought the US to the edge of disaster, and more like them is the last thing we need.

Part of what I snipped was your mention of "living in a fantasy land," and that's what you're doing. The politicians who brought us to this point (principally) are Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, Barney Frank, Chris Dodds, Chuck Schumer, Ted Kennedy, Charlie Rangel, and the others on the left who don't believe in private property/private capital, or the Bill of Rights. And they had some help from some on the other side of the aisle, but the ones listed led the charge.


We need a statesman: Ron Paul.

You're right on that. He's right on domestic issues, he's right on foreign policy, and he believes in private property and the Bill of Rights. And if he's elected, the first assassination attempt will likely be in a month or two.




--

You know the problem with bad cops? They make the other 5% look bad.
 

RLENT

Veteran Expediter
Yes, both of those events show that the number of people who believe they have a right to Other People's Money has grown to the point at which they can actually destroy the country.
I do not think that this assessment is necessarily and entirely correct - it is a stereotype perhaps based on biased media coverage which has an agenda - and by crass political exploitation on the part of both politicians and ideologues.

BTW, the Tea Party Movement should also be included in the above grouping of cheri's.

It is a mistake to get trapped into the false paradigm of diametrically opposed political ideologies. I'll have more to say on that shortly.

Part of what I snipped was your mention of "living in a fantasy land," and that's what you're doing.
I would humbly suggest that rather than practicing Mutually Assured Destruction, we practice Dr. Paul's philosophy of Mutually Assured Respect with our fellow comrades in arms. Try to see the perspective of their views, rather than immediately dismissing them out of hand - afterall: we do have common cause ....

Just one man's opinion tho' .... all are free to do as they please.

The politicians who brought us to this point (principally) are Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, Barney Frank, Chris Dodds, Chuck Schumer, Ted Kennedy, Charlie Rangel, and the others on the left who don't believe in private property/private capital, or the Bill of Rights. And they had some help from some on the other side of the aisle, but the ones listed led the charge.
This problem goes back much further than you seem to suggest - having it's genesis in the creation of the Federal Reserve and the subsequent institution of the Federal Income Tax - which can certainly be laid at the feet of those who do not fit the political profile which you listed above (IOW, they were "Republicans")

This in fact, was far more insidious and devastating - for it enabled all of that which you refer to that came after.

Pay no attention to those who give lip service to private property/private capital ..... whilst simultaneously acting as puppets of those who have em-placed a system which surreptitiously robs the citizens of a nation of their wealth and enslaves them ...

You're right on that. He's right on domestic issues, he's right on foreign policy, and he believes in private property and the Bill of Rights. And if he's elected, the first assassination attempt will likely be in a month or two.
The M-I-B-C (Military-Industrial-Banking-Complex) will probably not go quietly into the night .... that's for sure. :(
 
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RLENT

Veteran Expediter
This would seem to be a worthwhile concept to pursue, in furtherance of the Revolution and accomplishing it's goals, after the first major skirmish is won:

No Labels: Not Left. Not Right. Forward

The solution lies not in divisiveness and political warfare over a false ideological paradigm, but mutual action towards common goals that can be agreed on, allowing liberty and freedom to resolve that which cannot.
 

cheri1122

Veteran Expediter
Driver
Yes, both of those events show that the number of people who believe they have a right to Other People's Money has grown to the point at which they can actually destroy the country.

Is that really what they believe? Or is it just possibly what the [corporate owned] media choose to portray for your consideration? You know: the same media that pretended [as long as it could] that Dr Paul wasn't worth considering in the current race. Maybe they have an agenda that doesn't permit them to acknowledge that the protesters have some valid reasons to feel as they do, and it's not about their right to other people's money. Not even close.
RLENT is correct, I should have included the Tea Party also. It seemed less of a major surprise than the other two, but it's also groundbreaking, and it's not fading away, either.



Part of what I snipped was your mention of "living in a fantasy land," and that's what you're doing. The politicians who brought us to this point (principally) are Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, Barney Frank, Chris Dodds, Chuck Schumer, Ted Kennedy, Charlie Rangel, and the others on the left who don't believe in private property/private capital, or the Bill of Rights. And they had some help from some on the other side of the aisle, but the ones listed led the charge.

You can pick your villains, I'll pick mine - doesn't matter which names or parties are responsible, in the end, does it? Because none will ever take responsibility for the errors of their ways, they just blame it on their predecessors [who are conveniently unavailable to answer for their sins] and we are stuck paying the tab.
And we're broke, man. :mad:




You're right on that. He's right on domestic issues, he's right on foreign policy, and he believes in private property and the Bill of Rights. And if he's elected, the first assassination attempt will likely be in a month or two.






--

You know the problem with bad cops? They make the other 5% look bad.
 

cheri1122

Veteran Expediter
Driver
This would seem to be a worthwhile concept to pursue, in furtherance of the Revolution and accomplishing it's goals, after the first major skirmish is won:

No Labels: Not Left. Not Right. Forward

The solution lies not in divisiveness and political warfare over a false ideological paradigm, but mutual action towards common goals that can be agreed on, allowing liberty and freedom to resolve that which cannot.

Haha - if you skip the two dollar words [paradigm is one you don't hear every day, lol] it's what I've been saying for years.
Waaay too much aggressive competition in our culture, and our politics, too.:(
 

AMonger

Veteran Expediter
Yes, both of those events show that the number of people who believe they have a right to Other People's Money has grown to the point at which they can actually destroy the country.

Is that really what they believe? Or is it just possibly what the [corporate owned] media choose to portray for your consideration?


The reverse, actually. Have you ever heard or read the media accurately portray SS or any other entitlement as wealth redistribution? That's quite intentionally and specifically what they go out of their way to NOT portray.

You can pick your villains, I'll pick mine - doesn't matter which names or parties are responsible, in the end, does it?


Actually, it does, because when the system comes crashing down under its own weight, we're going to be fighting about how to reassemble society. Leftists will argue that no one should have a gun, that all social programs should be re-instituted, and that nobody should be allowed to succeed because not everybody can. Reasonable people will argue for a meritocracy with private charity covering deserving hard luck cases. So ideological purity is important. Beliefs are important.

I'm glad for every supporter of Dr. Paul, but the ideas of the left primarily brought down society, and those ideas must be uprooted and salt sown into the earth where they once grew. To not do so will be to rebuild the system responsible for our downfall.
 

RLENT

Veteran Expediter
Let me preface my comments by saying that I believe you are both right (in your own ways) - the trick of the matter might be in seeing how that is so.

The reverse, actually.
I don't think so - in fact, I know for a fact, not.

I saw some "citizen journalist" done video on YouTube where they taped a MSM TV video crew out at OWS, and the MSM TV reporter was deliberately focusing on that aspect (people that wanted others money, the whacky, etc.), picking out the more "radical" elements in the crowd, and willfully ignoring common everyday people who were actually trying to talk to her.

She (the MSM TV reporter) was getting verbally accosted by normally every day folks because these folks recognized exactly what it was that she was doing: operating off an agenda, not to report the truth, but to portray things in a particular light, based on whatever her agenda was.

Have you ever heard or read the media accurately portray SS or any other entitlement as wealth redistribution?
LOL ..... depends on what media you're referring to ;)

Part of the reason why is that corporate-owned media is not against (all) wealth redistribution - since they themselves are benefitting from it (as a consequence of crony capitalism) probably in not so obvious ways, that aren't really thought much about.

That's quite intentionally and specifically what they go out of their way to NOT portray.
In a lot of cases it's certain true, and I think it's an absolutely valid point.

On the other hand, if one looks to some of the stuff on YouTube and the like, featuring people that have come out in support OWS, I see a lot of just normal, everyday people that don't necessarily want wealth distribution - just a fair opportunity to succeed on their own merits and efforts, in a system which is set up, often in some not so obvious ways, so as to effectively deny a level playing field. That (a level playing field) is how it is supposed to be - but in many ways it currently isn't.

That is not to say that there are not a significant amount of folks within the movement whose minds are muddled with wrong-headed ideology.

Education, in some cases, is needed no doubt. No, wait - that's actually wrong - education is needed in all cases.

Actually, it does, because when the system comes crashing down under its own weight, we're going to be fighting about how to reassemble society.
Well, hopefully we'll be able to avoid that little exercise, and avert disaster. There is a limited time to do so however. It will be a Herculean task, no doubt.

Leftists will argue that no one should have a gun, that all social programs should be re-instituted, and that nobody should be allowed to succeed because not everybody can.
You're likely right in that respect. However that's only half the story.

Now ask yourself what the Rightists will be arguing (and doing) - it doesn't take a whole lot of imagination to see what could occur (think Central America for starters) - things that would not be dissimilar to our current foreign policy in terms of "preemptive action" to ward off "threats"

Neither side can lay claim to being pure as the driven snow and sinless.

The whole "Left"/"Right" thing is a false ideological duality. The trick to attaining freedom and liberty, is not to engage in participating in a duality of false choice - because it is rarely the case that only two choices are available.

The NoLabels folks seemingly have recognized this - and it is very interesting that the core group (pics of faces and names on their website) contains a number former federal politicians who have recognized that the current politics (which are essentially ideologically-driven political bloodsport) being practiced in Washington on a national level are the functional equivalent Mutual Assured Destruction.

We's killin' ourselves - and why commit suicide when, with a self-reflection, personal honesty to oneself, and little effort to work with others - even if one may not agree with them on all matters - one can live ?

Reasonable people will argue for a meritocracy with private charity covering deserving hard luck cases. So ideological purity is important. Beliefs are important.
Certainly, they are - however one must seek to understand how both sides (left/right, conservative/liberal, etc.) are both right - and wrong at the same time.

I'm glad for every supporter of Dr. Paul, but the ideas of the left primarily brought down society,
The Left has no monopoly on bad ideas and on the use force by the State on the individual (all propaganda to contrary aside)

The Right engages in the very same thing, just simply in different ways.

Neither is totally right - nor are they totally wrong. It's inherently a false premise that one - or the other - is either. Solutions are to be found down a path that requires the removal of certain ideological blinders.

As but one example of that is the drug laws - just look at the fact of how many are incarcerated in prison for non-violent, victimless (save for self) drug crimes. Look at the disportionate numbers of minorities. Look at the sentence disparities between minorities and whites (crack vs. coke)

Aside from the fact of freedom, liberty, and being personally responsible for one's own actions dictating that it should be, and is an individual's right to consume whatever the heck he wants (as long as it does not directly harm others), ask yourself what is the net effect of placing non-violent "criminals" into close proximity with those who actually are hardened violent criminals for real ..... and then placing them back into society ?

If you want to manufacture real criminals you probably couldn't come up with a better system. It's literally insane - so why do it ?

I'm passionately anti-drug for very good personal reasons - nevertheless, if I am going to say I support freedom, liberty, individual rights, and personal responsibility, then how can I possibly be intellectually honest - and say that I support the right of an individual to consume alcohol .... but at the same time, they they ought to go to prison if they smoke dope ? or snort coke ? or shoot heroin ?

I can't.

I personally wouldn't use drugs even if they were legal, and I think that is probably the case for almost everyone that doesn't currently use them. The laws don't prevent people from doing drugs - their own self-interest does.

And aside from the above, there is also the matter of what the illegality, which itself drives up prices, does in terms of fostering criminality by of creating the narco-trafficantes (drug dealers), .... and the real "drug wars" that they spawn.

Drugs being illegal only make it more lucrative for people to be involved in trafficking. Big economic incentives drives the violence.

and those ideas must be uprooted and salt sown into the earth where they once grew. To not do so will be to rebuild the system responsible for our downfall.
I think that that's true as far as it goes - but I think that when doing the inventory for ideas to be uprooted, one has to consider all ideas - regardless of where they reside on the political spectrum, or how people choose to categorize or portray them in the political.

It will take a lot intellectual honesty - and perhaps slaying a sacred cow or two.

And getting beyond the idea that "I am right" and "they are wrong"
 
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RLENT

Veteran Expediter
Looks like some would prefer that the foxes guard the hen house:

Republican Security Advisers Tied to $40 Billion in Contracts

December 23, 2011, 2:52 PM EST
By Roxana Tiron

Dec. 23 (Bloomberg) -- National security advisers to the Republican presidential candidates have ties to defense, homeland security and energy companies that have received at least $40 billion in federal contracts since 2008.

Five of former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney’s 41 national security and foreign policy advisers have links to companies that last year alone received at least $7.9 billion in federal contracts, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Government analyst Christopher Flavelle. Of that, $7.3 billion came from the Department of Defense.

Romney and former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia, who are leading in the polls, have advisers who sit on the board of directors of BAE Systems Inc., which has received at least $37 billion in U.S. government contracts since 2008, the most of any of the companies with ties to Republican national security advisers.

William Schneider, an adviser to Gingrich, and Michael Chertoff, who counsels Romney, serve on the board of the U.S. subsidiary of BAE Systems Plc, Europe’s largest defense contractor. The American company makes the Army’s Bradley Fighting Vehicle and provides information technology systems to American intelligence agencies and repair services to the U.S. Navy.

Missile Maker

Schneider, a former State Department undersecretary for security assistance, science and technology under President Ronald Reagan, is head of International Planning Services Inc., a consulting firm based in Arlington, Virginia.

He also serves on the board of MBDA Inc., the U.S. subsidiary of Europe’s largest missile maker. MBDA, which has at least $12 million in U.S. contracts, according to the Bloomberg data, is owned by BAE Systems Plc, Paris and Munich-based European Aeronautic, Defence and Space Co. (EADS) and Italy’s Finmeccanica SpA.

Schneider also serves on the board of Falls Church, Virginia-based Defense Group Inc., whose focus includes research and development in intelligence and cybersecurity. Defense Group has received about $208 million in contracts since 2008 from agencies that include the Defense and Homeland Security departments and the Federal Bureau of Investigation, according to data reviewed by Bloomberg. In 2010, the company had $82.2 million in federal contracts, according to the data.

Gingrich has called for securing U.S. borders to “prevent terrorist organizations from sneaking agents and weapons” into the country. During a national security debate on Nov. 22, he said the U.S. must strengthen the tools to detect and deter threats because “all of us will be in danger for the rest of our lives.”

A Bigger Toolbox

As a presidential candidate, “you want a competition of information,” Gingrich said in Manchester, New Hampshire, on Dec. 21. “I want a wide range of advice from a wide range of people.”

Schneider didn’t respond to an e-mail requesting comment.

The BAE Systems board is comprised of “some of the most experienced national security experts” who have advised “presidents, secretaries of defense and other prominent national security officials for both Republican and Democratic administrations, as well as members of Congress,” said Brian Roehrkasse, a BAE spokesman, in an e-mailed statement. “All of our board members adhere to conflict of interest agreements.”

It is not uncommon for candidates to recruit advisers with ties to the defense industry, said Steve Ellis, vice president of Taxpayers for Common Sense, a Washington-based organization that tracks government spending.

More Voices Needed

“These are the people who have knowledge of the industry, but those can’t be the only voices in the room,” Ellis said in a telephone interview. “The candidates have to get a diversity of views from other areas if they want to have a responsible national security policy.”

The Romney advisers with ties to military contractors include Chertoff, a former Homeland Security secretary; former National Security Agency Director Michael Hayden; former CIA and State Department Counterterrorism Director Cofer Black; former Undersecretary of Defense Dov Zakheim; and former Assistant Secretary of Defense Mary Beth Long.

In addition to BAE Systems, those former government officials are linked to companies that include Alion Science & Technology Corp. and Blackbird Technologies Inc.

Romney has called for boosting shipbuilding and missile defense and a strategy to defend against cyber attacks, terrorism and espionage.

Romney Shipbuilding Initiative

He has said that, as president, he would announce an initiative to increase the shipbuilding rate to 15 a year, up from the current nine ships annually. The Navy paid $3.2 billion in contracts last year to companies now associated with Romney advisers. Those companies include BAE and Alion, according to the Bloomberg Government analysis.

At least six companies that are tied to advisers to Romney’s campaign provide cybersecurity services to the federal government, the data shows. They include BAE, InfoZen Inc., and security-clearance company KeyPoint Government Solutions Inc., all of which count Chertoff as a board member; Motorola Solutions Inc. and Alion, whose boards include Hayden; and Blackbird, where Black is a vice president.

Romney advisers also have business ties to each other. Hayden is a principal at Chertoff’s consulting company, the Chertoff Group, which in turn is a client of Metis Solutions, owned by Mary Beth Long, another Romney adviser. Another client of Metis, according to the company’s website, is Alion, on whose board Hayden sits.

Final Decisions

Andrea Saul, a Romney spokeswoman, said in a statement to Bloomberg Government that the final defense policy decisions rest with Romney.

“Mitt Romney has assembled a diverse group of highly respected foreign policy thinkers. He fields their opinions, evaluates them and ultimately makes his own decisions on policy,” she said.

Gingrich has called for the implementation of an energy plan “to reduce the world’s dependence on oil from dangerous and unstable countries, especially in the Middle East,” according to his campaign website.

R. James Woolsey, the former CIA director who serves as an adviser to Gingrich, is a venture partner at Lux Capital, an investment firm focused on emerging technologies, including energy. Woolsey also leads the strategic advisory group of Paladin Capital Group, a private equity fund in Washington with a portfolio that includes alternative energy and cyber security. Woolsey serves as the chairman of his own firm Woolsey Partners LLC.

Republican presidential candidate Rick Perry has several informal foreign policy and national security advisers with ties to oil companies. John Bolton, a former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, is on the board of Diamond Offshore Drilling, Inc., a Houston-based deep-water drilling contractor. Another adviser to Texas Governor Perry, Zalmay Khalilzad, a former U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan and Iraq, is a director on the board of United Arab Emirates-based Rak Petroleum.

--With assistance from Jonathan D. Salant and Brendan McGarry in Washington. Editors: John Walcott, Jim Rubin.

To contact the reporter on this story: Roxana Tiron in Washington at [email protected]

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Mark Silva at [email protected]

Original Article:

Republican Security Advisers Tied to $40 Billion in Contracts
 

RLENT

Veteran Expediter
New PPP poll out:

Paul maintains his lead

The last week and a half has brought little change in the standings for the Iowa Republican caucus: Ron Paul continues to lead Mitt Romney by a modest margin, 24-20. Newt Gingrich is in 3rd at 13% followed by Michele Bachmann at 11%, Rick Perry and Rick Santorum at 10%, Jon Huntsman at 4%, and Buddy Roemer at 2%.

Paul's strength in Iowa continues to depend on a coalition of voters that's pretty unusual for a Republican in the state. Romney leads 22-20 with those who are actually Republicans, while Paul has a 39-12 advantage with the 24% who are either independents or Democrats. GOP caucus voters tend to skew old, and Romney has a 34-12 advantage with seniors. But Paul's candidacy looks like it's going to attract an unusual number of younger voters to the caucus this year, and with those under 45 he has a 35-11 advantage on Romney. The independent/young voter combo worked for Barack Obama in securing an unexpectedly large victory on the Democratic side in 2008 and it may be Paul's winning equation in 2012.

Paul continues to have much more passionate support than Romney. 77% of his voters are firmly committed to him, compared to 71% for Romney. Among voters who say their minds are completely made up Paul's lead expands to 7 points at 28-21. If Paul's lead holds on through next Tuesday it appears he'll have won this on the ground- 26% of voters think he's run the strongest campaign in the state to 18% for Bachmann and 10% for Santorum with just 5% bestowing that designation to Romney. There's also an increasing sense that Paul will indeed win the state- 29% think he'll emerge victorious with 15% picking Romney and no one else in double digits.

Although Romney's support has held steady at 20% over the last week his favorability numbers have taken a hit, something that could keep him from moving into first place over the final week. He was at +9 (49/40) but has dipped now into negative territory at -3 (44/47). Additionally Romney is the second choice of only 10% of voters, barely better than Paul's 9%. It's certainly still close enough that he could win, but there's nothing within the numbers this week to suggest that he should win. One of Romney's biggest problems continues to be his inability to hold onto his 2008 voters. Only 48% of them are still with him.

In a development that probably no one would have expected a year ago Romney is winning big with regular Fox News viewers, getting 27% to 16% for Gingrich, 15% for Bachmann, and just 12% for Paul. But Paul leads Romney 38-13 with the 48% of likely caucus voters who don't regularly watch Fox News.

Newt Gingrich just keeps on sliding. He's gone from 27% to 22% to 14% to 13% over the course of our four Iowa tracking polls. His favorability numbers are pretty abysmal now at 37/54 and only 32% of likely voters think that he has strong principles to 45% who believe he does not. Once the darling of Tea Party voters in the state, he's now slipped to third with that group behind Bachmann and Paul. There's not much reason to think Gingrich can return to his former strong standing in the state in the final week.

Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, and Rick Santorum continue to all be clustered right around 10%. Santorum actually has the best favorability numbers of any of the candidates at +27 (56/29). He's also the most frequent second choice of voters at 14%. Whether he can translate any of this into a top 3 finish remains to be seen, but he's someone who would seem to have the potential to grow his support in the final week.

One thing that's hurt Santorum's ability to really make a move is that the Evangelical vote is incredibly fragmented with 6 different candidates getting between 12 and 21%. Paul actually leads the way with that group at 21% to 16% for Romney and Bachmann, 15% for Santorum, 14% for Gingrich, and 12% for Perry.

Bachmann leads the way with Tea Party voters 24-21 over Paul but the fact that you can be winning Tea Partiers but only in 4th place overall speaks to the diminished power of that movement compared to 2010 within the Republican electorate...only 26% of likely caucus voters consider themselves to be members.

Iowa looks like a 2 person race between Paul and Romney as the campaign enters its final week. If Paul can really change the electorate by turning out all these young people and independents who don't usually vote in Republican caucuses, he'll win. If turnout ends up looking a little bit more traditional, Romney will probably prevail. And given all the strange twists and turns to this point don't be surprised to see yet another surprise in the final week...and based on the innards of this poll the person best positioned to provide that surprise in the closing stretch is Santorum.

Full Poll Results Here
 
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