Problem is, if/when Phil exits expediting, he'll take half of Landstar with him.
In the years Diane and I were with FedEx Custom Critical, a number of people who joined the company after us told us that we were influential in their decision to also sign on with that carrier. Influential, perhaps but decisive? Not at all.
No one has ever joined a carrier because they followed us. The people who said we were influential in their carrier decisions did other research and talked to other people and carriers too.
When we left FedEx Custom Critical for Landstar, a number of contractors soon followed. But they followed us only in the timing. The factors that drove us to a carrier change drove them too.
Diane and I have never urged anyone to join Landstar and we never will. The Landstar business opportunity is fundamentally different than those with carriers that have centralized dispatch.
At FedEx, we could recommend the company to others (then, not now) because we knew that the opportunity and operating environment we had there would be the same for others coming in. We could say (then, not now) with reasonable confidence that if people did what we did, they could earn what we earned.
Not so at Landstar. It's different here and even among contractors who are experienced and successful at other carriers, there is no way to know how anyone will do at Landstar. Different skills are required and we don't know other expediters well enough to know if they have what it takes to succeed at Landstar. For that reason we leave up to others to research the company and find their own way in.
We are very pleased with what we have found here but Landstar is not for everyone. Again, Diane and I have never urged anyone to join Landstar and we never will.
Regarding my influence, there is no mystery to it. People researching the industry come across my blog sooner or later. Some read it. Some read it in its entirety. It's a rare find in that I have been blogging every day for several years and the experiences I report in good times and bad provide real insight into this life and work.
A number of readers get to know us as they research their own futures. We become familiar to them through my daily blog and for that reason we are sometimes cited as influential in their decision to enter the industry or change carriers (not always to Landstar). Influential sometimes but decisive never.
Present trends in the trucking industry have Diane and me thinking for the first time about finding a way out. As with past decisions, I'll be blogging about this as we work our way through it. No one will leave Landstar or the trucking industry because we do. People leave all the time, for reasons of their own.
Please don't misunderstand. We love Landstar and we love expediting. Trucking is in our blood and it is not something that will be easily given up if it is ever given up.
But the present trends are troubling. The future of trucking ain't what it used to be. The Great Recession is over but freight rates have not returned to pre-recession levels. CSA has been in place long enough but the driver shortage has not materialized (no freight is sitting on docks for lack of drivers to haul it). Regulatory changes have undermined freedom, flexibility and productivity. Truck prices and operating costs are skyrocketing.
When we bought our first truck in 2006, it cost $251,000 and we paid it off in 22 months. I have not checked for an exact price but it would cost over $300,000 to build the same truck today (in no small part because of government mandated, "green" add-ons that increase the price).
When we ordered that custom-built truck, we did so with the confidence that we could earn money in the future to quickly pay the truck off. I know of no expedite carrier today where we could have the same confidence now. That's partly because some carriers are aggressively working to take money off trucks instead of paying them like before and partly because of troubling industry trends.
Expedited freight is still being hauled but not at rates and a frequency that would provide the confidence to purchase of a truck like the one we built and bought in 2006 (unless we wanted to run at breakeven and have nothing but a used truck to show for our efforts years later).
People are still buying big-sleeper trucks but the sleepers are not as big as before. For the most part, the people who are buying them are replacing old big-sleeper trucks. Jeff Jones is selling more of these trucks than anyone else in the industry but he now sells in a year the number of these trucks that he used to sell in a month.
I am becoming increasingly aware of the "indivisible fleet" as I call it; the thousands of mom and pop, own-authority expedite operations that, combined, vastly outnumber and out run the fleets of the better known large carriers.
Cell phones and the internet have revolutionized the expediting business, enabling micro carriers to soar. But when they soar, they do so in modest trucks. They fly coach and on stand-by tickets. Diane and I like to fly first class but doing so is more difficult today if not financially impossible.
When we bought our truck in 2006, a chorus of people lined up to say we were crazy. They were wrong. If someone bought such a truck today, I'd be in the chorus too.
How do I know the future of trucking ain't what it used to be? I know because Diane and I would be crazy to buy the truck today that we we were not crazy to buy in 2006. I know because the invisible fleet is coming more into view. I know because regulations that have gone on the books since we entered the industry in 2003 have undermined our profitability, flexibility and freedom. I know because I see at least one large fleet owner reducing driver pay to 35 percent from 40 percent. I know because I see sales of big-sleeper trucks trailing off to a trickle.
Will it be possible to succeed as a trucker in the future? Of course it will, for anyone who is willing to adapt to present and future trends and work for the available money. It seems that a business model is emerging that is more strictly business. Luxuries like big sleepers, lots of trips home and time off for paid tourism may be things of the past.