Flu Schmu

[Turtle]

Yeah, antibiotics work strictly on bacteria, not viruses, viroids or filoviruses.

The 2% figure is certainly low. The known mortality rate of that strain is for sure 5%, as that was the lowest rate observed and recorded. In some pockets of infection it was observed to be as high as 10%, but never any higher than that.

I never gave the flu much thought. Not until I got it bad one year. Apparently, all those other times I had the flu it was just a really, really bad cold or something. This one nearly killed me, and it got to the point where death would have been welcome. I complained, generally, and my doctor said that people die all the time from flu. My response was, "Yeah, well, when?" It was awful. It lingered for weeks, some symptoms hung around for months. Next time around I fully expect it to get me. lol

But after that I started doing the research on it, what makes viruses tick, how they work, how they mutate, all kinds of things.

 

[layoutshooter]

We are almost helpless against them. We are getting better but we have a long way to go. Hope we don't over due with them like we did anti-biotics. Layoutshooter

 

[Moot]

A minor point... the morality rate of the Spanish Influenza was between 5% and 10%.

Was this a venereal influenza whereby people with higher moral standards were less likely to become infected?

 

[ATeam]

This Bloomberg News piece provides some historical perspective on the swine flu (H1N1) compared to other strains at other times.

This from the CDC (web site):

"Novel influenza A (H1N1) is a new flu virus of swine origin that was first detected in April, 2009. The virus is infecting people and is spreading from person-to-person, and has sparked a growing outbreak of illness in the United States with an increasing number of cases being reported internationally as well.

"CDC anticipates that there will be more cases, more hospitalizations and more deaths associated with this new virus in the coming days and weeks because the population has little to no immunity against it."

Current (May 11) stats from the CDC:

2,618 total cases of novel H1N1 flu, 3 deaths, 44 states affected in US.

This May 11 Reuters piece suggests that a pandemic alert level 5 is justified and precautions remain wise to take.

 

[pjjjjj]

Sorry people, I got this in an email and couldn't resist

 

[ATeam]

That frog/pig item is hilarious. Less funny are the most-recent statistics:

"GENEVA (AFP) -- The number of confirmed swine flu cases has reached 8,451, a rise of nearly 1,000 in 24 hours, the World Health Organization said on Saturday.


"The number of people killed by the influenza A(H1N1) virus also rose to 72, compared with 65 on Friday, the WHO said.


"Over the past week the number of people infected by the virus has risen sharply with the United States, followed by Mexico, where the epidemic began, recording the highest number of cases."

 

[inkasnana]

According to the CDC website, in the US alone there are/have been 4,714 confirmed and probable cases of H1N1 in 47 states and 4 deaths. Illinois has/had the highest number of cases so far with 638. Second highest is Wisconsin with 613. Texas has had 2 deaths and there's been one in Arizona and one in Washington.

To me it really doesn't seem that different or any more severe than any other flu that goes around each year. Those who have died also had other underlying health ailments. How is this different from previous years flu's except that it's "new"?

 

[ATeam]

How is this different from previous years flu's except that it's "new"?

It is different in two ways, according to health officials. 1. It is slightly more contagious than seasonal flu, meaning it spreads easier from person to person. 2. The mortality rate is slightly higher than seasonal flu.

Another difference is vaccines for seasonal flu are developed and distributed ahead of time. No vaccine yet exists for this strain of swine flu. Certain medicines have been effective in treating this flu once a patient has it but that happens after the fact.

Another issue is the impact a decision to produce a swine flu vaccine will have on the drug companies. Capacity does not exist to produce vaccines in sufficient quantities for both swine flu and seasonal flu. If a decision is made to produce swine flu vaccine, the production of seasonal flu vaccine will be disrupted.

Finally, concern exists based on historical behavior of the Spanish flu many years ago. Health officials point out that the Spanish flu circled the globe in waves, being mild the first time around and deadly the second time.

Health officials rightly put this information out. The media may be guilty of jazzing it up for dramatic effect. I'm keeping my eye partly on what might happen but mostly on what is known to have happened; namely, the number of cases, locations and mortality rate. I am following this with interest because if this becomes a full-fledged pandemic, a number of expediters will likely become involved, and a number of us will likely catch the flu.

Off to wash my hands now.

 

[Turtle]

How is this different from previous years flu's except that it's "new"?

What's different is, this isn't flu season. It's hitting out-of-season. Flu season won't be here until the fall, late fall usually, so this one is likely to hang around and then come roaring back, possibly stronger and more virulent. That's exactly what happened in 1918.

 

[pjjjjj]

Several years ago I was hired at a local hospital and had to get a flu shot, among other things, before starting work there. At the time I was skeptical about the flu shot, because of little tidbits I had heard here and there. My kids' family doc didn't believe in it either, and only gave it to those in frail health.
The nurse who gave me the shot explained to me that each year, somewhere across the world, ie China, there are bugs that causes illness, and from whatever those bugs are, the docs on this side of the world make immunizations. The theory being that by the time that flu over there reached over here by the following winter, we would have immunization for it.
She explained that is why the specific bug being immunized against, changes in each year's immunization. And further, she told me that with each year's immunization, the theory is that we will build up our defences against different bugs, so that when 'the big one' comes, we will be as protected as possible.
I didn't necessarily believe what I was being told at the time, however, over the next few winters, when many others had 'the flu', which likely didn't have a name at that time, we didn't get it, and other times, if we got it, our symptoms were less.
Now that a few years have passed since then, I can see how the flu-shot theory she was informing me of could make sense, since bugs can combine and/or mutate, and I guess the more defence you have in your body, the better.
Many people believe that you 'get the flu' when you get a flu shot, which isn't true. There are just so many myths, everyone should obtain their own info, decide for themselves what they believe, and make their own decisions.

Another time, I was in the hospital with a sick child, and it just so happened that year, the 'Norwalk Virus' was going around. I asked the pediatrician why it seemed there were so many deadly flus all of a sudden, every year, more and more. He said there have always been, except now they have names, and there is lots of publicity thru the media.

Has anyone seen the movie, 'The Stand'?

 

[DougTravels]

Your bodies immune system works well when exposed to various germs/viruses.
I know they say the best thing is to have clean habits, but in a way you are hurting yourself as well.
I do not reccommend exposing yourself to germs but if they don't kill you, you will be stronger for it.
I used to work in the Linen Supply Biz and the first couple of winters, I got sick as a dog. Handling businesses nasty and I mean nasty laundry, (In the summer was maggot season)it had to sorted out before washing, yes we wore gloves towels from aprons and table linen etc. it would get so **** ripe, I was amazed how clean the stuff came out. In the winter the bags would be hot in the middle a thriving colony of things alive in there. I heard homes down by the half a tomato were going for 200k.
Now that I have totally grossed you out about the Linen Supply/Commercial laundry biz, I will tell you that I have not had a cold or the flu since about 1991.

 

[greg334]

In general, Drug companies don't make vaccines for influenza, there is one US based vaccine company that does, GSK, Norvartis and Baxter use their off shore plants to make vaccines. Pfizer, GSK, Merke are all capable to do it and all have continigency plans setup to convert some plants over if need be but outside of that, one company.

 

[ATeam]

May 11 stats from the CDC:

2,618 total cases of novel H1N1 flu, 3 deaths, 44 states affected in US.

June 1 stats from the CDC:

10,053 total cases of novel H1N1 flu, 17 deaths, all states affected

Worldwide: 17,410 cases, 115 deaths (WHO)

 

[termite289]

someone at the who had just watched "the stand" by steven king, and fliped out.
if it was a real super flu, we would have no chance, and all the warnings would do little good.

 

[Turtle]

That's my deal on all this. The "warnings" aren't even warnings, they're issued after the fact, after it's too late. The various DefCon levels of a pandemic are based on numbers infected and geography, and by the time you get that data, along with the 24-48 hour incubation period, it's way too late to do anything about it.

When word of a brand new virus was discovered in Mexico, the borders should have been shut down that instant. Then, after the incubation period of 48 hours, maybe 72 hours, had gone by, you can take a look at what you're dealing with, see what happened with the people who came out of there 72 hours ago, and then make a decision about what to do. But to let people in and out of there on a "let's wait and see what happens" basis is just stupid.

Reminds me of when the first astronauts came back from the Moon. They kept them quarantined in an environmentally sealed trailer for 30 days, to make sure they didn't bring back any planet-killer organisms. Of course, splashing down into the middle of the planet's largest breeding ground for organisms probably wasn't the smartest thing to do. Whoops.

 

[ATeam]

Swine flu shot campaign could involve 600M doses

The latest count is 27,000 cases with 127 deaths in the U.S. However, weekly case counts are not as significant as they once were. At least one state (Hawaii) has stopped reporting because it is already known that the flu is widespread and resources to track it are scarce. The above article states an estimate of over one million cases.

Noteworthy is that 6,000 cases were reported last week, more than any other week since the outbreak began.

 

[Jack_Berry]

43 cases confirmed in wisc.

m cousin came down with s=f a couple weeks back. he had been running a temp over 100. tough guy self employed that he is he tried to work thru it. finally he took to bed. then a couple days later he went to the er where they immediately was admitted to the hospital. "doc" he says, "i am self employed and my deductible is high can't you just give me some pills and i can go home"? doc says, "i can give you some pills and you can go home and die".

he is out and feeling better. he has no idea where he contracted the disease.