Diane and I decline extended warranties on everything too, but we made an exception when we bought our Volvo truck new in 2006. It worked out well and if we had it to do over again, we would buy more coverage than we did.
Volvo knows very well what its exposure will be when it sells an extended warranty. They have many years and many, many service orders worth of data to make that determination. An owner without an extended warranty has the same exposure.
A truck is a truck and stuff wears out and breaks. We are exceptionally diligent in maintaining our truck, but stuff still wears out and breaks.
Our extended warranty expired after five years. It paid for itself in that time; not by much, but it paid for itself. Had we not purchased the warranty, we would have paid out approximately the same amount of money in repairs by picking up the costs ourselves.
The added benefit was the peace of mind the warranty provided. We keep a healthy reserve fund to cover unexpected expenses. But if a major, major repair was required, it would have been covered and we did not have to worry about taking the financial hit (as we do now that the warranty is expired).
Example: The buzzer (clicker, speaker) in the dashboard that sounds when turn signals are on, air brake level is low, etc. quit working. Silly me assumed this would be an easy repair by replacing the buzzer. Nope, on this truck, the buzzer is molded into the dash display (a really stupid design feature) and the entire electronic assembly (odometer, speedometer, RPM dial, warning lights, etc.) had to be replaced. That cost over $1,000 but Volvo picked up the entire cost (helping them to understand that it was a really stupid design feature, I hope).
Important is the kind of warranty service offered by the dealer network. Volvo's is excellent. When we had a repair made on a covered item, the warranty was honored without question, and without us even having to do paperwork. Each time, no matter who the dealer was, the repair was quickly made and we were sent away without even doing paperwork. the mechanic would tell the service manager the job was done, and the service manager would say, "See 'ya," "You're good to go," or some such thing.
I believe it also helped to have a Volvo engine in a Volvo truck. There has never been any warranty ping-pong between manufacturers casting blame back and forth. I have heard of such battles before like CAT blames Freightliner and Freightliner blames CAT back while the customer is caught in the middle.
The risk of an extended warranty is that you may get rid of or stop driving the truck before the warranty expires. A down side is that you pay for the warranty up front. In our case, the cost was included in the truck purchase price and built into the truck payment.
Again, if we had it to do over again, we would buy more coverage and would have extended it out as far as they would have allowed and included as much of the truck as possible (engine, transmission, suspension, everything).
Had we done so, we would still be enjoying the peace of mind the extended warranty provided, and Volvo would be picking up the penny-per-mile cost we have now built into our spreadsheet because of EGR valve design flaws. That story is in my
April 20, 2011 blog entry.