Phil,
Do you know how many reefer straight trucks there are in the fleet? How many reefer E trucks and how many are company owned reefer trailers? It would be interesting to know the percentage of flat rate vs. percentage rate of reefer trucks.
I'm sure there are several hundred C,D and E's now.
I know there are no flat rate reefer straight trucks and only 77 flat rate trucks in the fleet. And a lot of them are solos pulling dry vans. Isn't that less than 1% of the fleet? Could 1% be effecting the load counts as drastically as it is being speculated?
I do not know the exact number of reefer straight trucks in the fleet or ER-units either, or the exact ratio of flat-rate trucks to percentage-paid trucks. I have a general sense of the numbers and could get exact by making phone calls, just as you could; if you can find someone at FDCC who will reveal that information any more.
But even without exact numbers, I agree that it is as you suggest; namely, that only a single-digit percentage of the trucks now in the fleet are flat-rate trucks.
However, when those trucks are given preferential dispatch and dispatched two or more loads deep to keep them running, their negative effect on the percentage-paid trucks is more pronounced than their numbers would suggest.
In a typical month, Diane and I will do 10-15 loads. One or two loads will generally be good loads or great loads that make the difference between a good month and a great month, or between a fair month and a good month. But now with many good loads and great loads being preferentially dispatched onto company-owned trailers and/or flat-rate straight trucks, the game is changing.
We used to be delighted to take good load or great load to places like Washington state, Los Angeles, Dallas, Salt Lake City, Denver, etc., because we could generally count on a good load or great load to surface someplace and profitably get us out, or draw us out (deadhead to a distant pick up), and get us rolling again.
But with us now being passed over in the dispatch order and such loads now going to other trucks, we have to protect ourselves by staying east. We end up disqualifying ourselves from some good loads or great loads going west because other good loads or great loads that used to get us out of western states, or keep us busy in western states, are less frequent.
I know that FDCC is planning to raise its reefer trailer number to 40. Let's say it is 12 now (close to the actual number but that number changes depending on who you talk to). Let's also say that a persistently dispatched company owned reefer trailer does 3 to 4 loads a week.
That means that preferential dispatch is taking 36 to 48 good loads or great loads a week out of the system before we even see them. That becomes 144 to 192 good loads or great loads a month.
We only need one or two good loads or great loads a month to combine with the "everyday loads" and give us a good month or great month. But with 144 to 192 of them now going onto flat rate trailers, and with an unknown number also going onto flat-rate straight trucks, and with the same number of percentage-paid trucks left to compete for the remaining freight (assuming FDCC is not recruiting more), we see fewer good loads or great loads. The consistent loss of such loads will potentially leave us not with good months or great months, but with poor to fair monthly revenues to run our business on.
Raising the number of company-owned trailers to 40, as FDCC is committed to do, will suck 480 to 640 good loads or great loads a month out of the system. Adding flat-rate straight trucks to the equation, and flat-rate tractors pulling dry van trailers, creates an even worse future for percentage-paid trucks that look for one or two good loads or great loads a month to make the difference.
The difference is not just a month where expenses are met vs. a month where expenses are not met. The difference is a month where expenses are met vs. a month where meaningful profits are earned, money can be put away, and replacement trucks can be purchased over time.
So, jjoeger, it's not that 1% of flat rate trucks are affecting the load counts as drastically as it is being speculated (to use your words). It's that the declining number of good loads and great loads that are available to percentage-paid trucks is changing percentage-paid truck behavior and month-end results.
It's not about the number of trucks. It's about the number of good loads and great loads that are less and less available to percentage-paid trucks.
As I said, Diane and I (and other percentage-paid trucks, I presume) only need one or two good loads or great loads each month to have a great month. But when say 480 to 640 such loads vanish from the board because they are preferentially dispatched to flat rate trucks, it means that hundreds of percentage-paid trucks in the fleet will be adversely affected, month after month; such that the great months they used to enjoy will become less frequent.
Don't look at the number of trucks in play. Look at what is happening to hundreds of good loads and great loads each month and how the shift of those loads from percentage-paid trucks to flat rate trucks is affecting (or will affect) percentage-paid trucks.
That's how it is, as this man sees it. Others may see it differently, of course. I am open to and would love to discuss other points of view.
