Following up on the suggestion to go to the financial press for objective and verifiable indicators that will help us determine if we are in good times or bad, I picked a publication at random, Business Week, and saw the following.
Each year Business Week surveys a group of economists and other financial gurus to project the economic outlook for the coming year. Most financial publications do the same. As year-end, 2006 approaches, it is a great time to read a number of forecasts. It should be noted that some of last year's Business Week forecasters, who are also in the 2007 survey, proved to be spot on with their 2006 forecasts. Forecasing is not guessing, but it is by no means certain either. The Business Week forecast is probably as good as any and will likely be in the ballpark.
The forcaster consensus for 2007 reported in Business Week is:
Real GDP: 2.6%, with growth strengthing later in the year.
CPI inflation: 2.5%
Ten-year treasury yields: 4.88%
Jobless rate: 4.8%
Home prices: -1.7%
Paul56 makes a good point when he says it is necessary to read such publications over a period of time to put these numbers in context. A review of prior-year forecasts and these numbers over the last several years would be even better.
So, what can be read from the above numbers to determine whether or not the expediting industry is in good times or bad? Maybe a little, but not a lot. The above information combined with indicators more specific to the transportation industry would be more infomrative.
Generally, though, the above survey offers a more-or-less positive 2007 economic outlook. It does not appear that interest rates will go crazy. That's good news for anyone considering a truck purchase. Inflation is not projected to do anything terrible either. That might help keep the prices we pay for goods and services more-or-less at current levels.
Of course, the more specific one gets, the more tricky forecasting becomes. Better information for expediters can be gained by looking at projections for things specific to our industry like fuel prices that affect shipping costs and steel prices that affect new and used truck prices.
Sure, inflation may not be horrific overall, but that may be due to the fact that housing prices are due to decline where fuel prices may be due to increase. One offsets the other to produce a cushy inflation number. But as drivers who pay out a ton of money for fuel, the fuel forecast would be more important than the home price forecast.
The American Trucking Association, having a strong interest in the trucking industry outlook, makes industry forecasts that are reported in various trucking publications. Those forecasts combined with the more-general forecasts reported in the financial press can help us zero in a little better, but the expediting industry still continues to be a tiny and highly-specialized slice of the larger trucking industry. What is true for ATA fleets does not fully apply to expediting carriers, fleet owners, owner-operators and drivers.
The ATA Truck Tonage Index is a closely-watched and widely publicized indicator of trucking industry activity. But not all expediting carriers are members of the ATA. And even if they were, the volume of expedited feight is so small compared to all others in the ATA index that even if expediting was having its best year ever but trucking was down overall, the good news about expediting would be lost under the weight of data from larger carriers.
That brings us back to the question I first raised and then modified in response to Cheri's comment.
What objective and verifiable indicators exist that expediters - old, new, and wannabee - can use to guage the health of the expediting industry?
Let me modify it further.
What objective and verifiable, EXPEDITING-SPECIFIC, indicators exist that expediters - old, new, and wannabee - can use to guage the health of the expediting industry?
